What is a V-shaped recovery. How does it differ from other economic recovery patterns. What are the key characteristics of a V-shaped recovery. Which historical events exemplify V-shaped recoveries. How do economic policies impact the trajectory of a V-shaped recovery.
Understanding the Concept of V-Shaped Recovery
A V-shaped recovery represents a specific pattern in economic performance following a recession. This type of recovery is characterized by a sharp decline in economic metrics, followed by an equally rapid and robust rebound to previous peak levels. The name “V-shaped” is derived from the visual representation of this pattern on economic charts, where the downward and upward movements form a “V” shape.
To fully grasp the concept of a V-shaped recovery, it’s essential to understand its key features:
- Rapid economic decline
- Swift and strong rebound
- Return to pre-recession levels
- Minimal long-term economic damage
Economists and policymakers often view V-shaped recoveries as the ideal scenario following an economic downturn, as they indicate a quick return to economic stability and growth.
Key Characteristics of a V-Shaped Economic Recovery
V-shaped recoveries possess several distinctive characteristics that set them apart from other recovery patterns. These features contribute to the rapid economic turnaround and restoration of economic health:
- Sharp initial decline: The economy experiences a sudden and severe contraction in key metrics such as GDP, employment, and industrial production.
- Brief recession period: The duration of the economic downturn is relatively short-lived compared to other recovery patterns.
- Rapid adjustment: Businesses and consumers quickly adapt to changing economic conditions, leading to a swift reallocation of resources.
- Strong rebound: Economic indicators show a robust and sustained upward trajectory, mirroring the initial decline in steepness.
- Quick return to pre-recession levels: The economy rapidly regains its previous peak performance across various metrics.
These characteristics collectively contribute to the V-shape observed in economic charts and graphs.
Comparing V-Shaped Recovery to Other Economic Patterns
While a V-shaped recovery is considered optimal, it’s not the only pattern observed in economic recoveries. Understanding how it compares to other recovery shapes can provide valuable insights into economic dynamics:
U-Shaped Recovery
In a U-shaped recovery, the economy experiences a prolonged period of stagnation before gradually recovering. The main difference from a V-shaped recovery is the extended duration of the recession and the slower pace of recovery.
W-Shaped Recovery
Also known as a “double-dip recession,” a W-shaped recovery involves a brief recovery followed by another decline before a final rebound. This pattern is more complex and potentially more damaging than a V-shaped recovery.
L-Shaped Recovery
An L-shaped recovery represents a severe economic downturn followed by a prolonged period of slow growth or stagnation. This is considered the least desirable recovery pattern due to its long-lasting negative impacts.
J-Shaped Recovery
In a J-shaped recovery, the economy experiences a sharp decline followed by a gradual, steady recovery that eventually surpasses pre-recession levels. While positive, it lacks the rapid rebound characteristic of a V-shaped recovery.
Historical Examples of V-Shaped Recoveries
Throughout economic history, several instances of V-shaped recoveries have been observed. Two notable examples in the United States stand out:
The Depression of 1920-1921
This period marked a significant V-shaped recovery in U.S. economic history. Key aspects of this recovery include:
- Sharp economic decline in 1920
- Unemployment rate peaked at 12%
- Production declined by more than 32%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 47%
- Rapid recovery beginning in late 1921
- Unemployment rate fell to 2.4% by 1923
- Gross National Product rose 4.2% annually through 1929
Despite the severity of the initial downturn, the economy demonstrated remarkable resilience, rebounding swiftly and entering the prosperous era known as the Roaring Twenties.
The Recession of 1953
Another example of a V-shaped recovery occurred following the recession of 1953. This economic downturn was characterized by:
- A brief but sharp decline in economic activity
- Lasting only 10 months from July 1953 to May 1954
- GDP contracted by 2.2% during this period
- Unemployment rate peaked at 6.1% in September 1954
- Rapid recovery began in late 1954
- By 1955, GDP growth rebounded to 7.1%
- Unemployment rate fell back to 4.2% by 1955
This recovery demonstrated the classic V-shape, with a quick descent followed by an equally rapid ascent to pre-recession levels and beyond.
Factors Contributing to V-Shaped Recoveries
Several factors can contribute to the occurrence of a V-shaped recovery:
- Effective monetary policy: Central banks may implement measures such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing to stimulate economic growth.
- Fiscal stimulus: Government spending and tax policies can help jumpstart economic activity.
- Resilient business sector: Companies that can quickly adapt to changing economic conditions contribute to faster recovery.
- Strong consumer confidence: When consumers maintain or quickly regain confidence in the economy, spending rebounds rapidly.
- Structural economic strengths: Economies with diverse industries and flexible labor markets tend to recover more quickly.
- External factors: Positive global economic conditions or technological advancements can accelerate recovery.
The interplay of these factors can significantly influence the speed and strength of economic recovery.
The Role of Economic Policies in Shaping V-Shaped Recoveries
Economic policies play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of economic recoveries. In the context of V-shaped recoveries, certain policy approaches have proven effective:
Monetary Policy
Central banks can employ various tools to stimulate economic growth and facilitate a V-shaped recovery:
- Interest rate adjustments: Lowering interest rates can encourage borrowing and investment.
- Quantitative easing: Injecting money into the economy can increase liquidity and spur economic activity.
- Forward guidance: Clear communication about future monetary policy can boost confidence and stability.
Fiscal Policy
Government fiscal measures can complement monetary policy in fostering a V-shaped recovery:
- Stimulus packages: Direct payments to individuals and businesses can quickly boost spending and investment.
- Tax incentives: Targeted tax cuts or credits can encourage consumer spending and business expansion.
- Infrastructure investment: Government spending on infrastructure projects can create jobs and stimulate economic growth.
The effectiveness of these policies depends on their timing, scale, and appropriateness to the specific economic conditions.
Challenges and Limitations of V-Shaped Recoveries
While V-shaped recoveries are often considered ideal, they are not without challenges and limitations:
- Rarity: True V-shaped recoveries are relatively uncommon, as many factors must align for such a rapid rebound.
- Uneven impact: The benefits of a V-shaped recovery may not be evenly distributed across all sectors or demographic groups.
- Potential for overheating: A too-rapid recovery can lead to inflationary pressures or asset bubbles.
- Sustainability concerns: The long-term sustainability of the recovery may be questionable if underlying economic issues are not addressed.
- Policy timing: Implementing the right policies at the right time is crucial but challenging.
Understanding these challenges is essential for policymakers and economists in managing expectations and planning for sustainable long-term growth.
Implications of V-Shaped Recoveries for Investors and Businesses
V-shaped recoveries have significant implications for various economic stakeholders:
For Investors
- Opportunity for high returns: The rapid rebound can offer substantial gains for those who invest during the downturn.
- Increased market volatility: Sharp economic swings can lead to heightened market volatility.
- Sector rotation: Different sectors may lead the recovery, requiring strategic portfolio adjustments.
For Businesses
- Rapid adaptation required: Companies must quickly adjust to changing economic conditions.
- Potential for market share gains: Businesses that weather the downturn well may emerge stronger.
- Investment opportunities: The recovery phase may present chances for expansion or acquisition.
Both investors and businesses must remain agile and forward-thinking to capitalize on the opportunities presented by a V-shaped recovery.
Understanding V-shaped recoveries is crucial for economists, policymakers, investors, and business leaders. By recognizing the characteristics, historical examples, and implications of these rapid economic rebounds, stakeholders can better navigate economic uncertainties and position themselves for success in the face of economic challenges. As economies continue to evolve and face new types of crises, the concept of V-shaped recoveries will remain an important framework for analyzing and responding to economic downturns.
V-Shaped Recovery: Definition, Characteristics, Examples
What Is V-Shaped Recovery?
V-shaped recovery is a type of economic recession and recovery that resembles a “V” shape in charting. Specifically, a V-shaped recovery represents the shape of a chart of economic measures that economists create when examining recessions and recoveries. A V-shaped recovery involves a sharp rise back to a previous peak after a sharp decline in these metrics.
Key Takeaways
- A V-shaped recovery is characterized by a quick and sustained recovery in measures of economic performance after a sharp economic decline.
- Because of the speed of economic adjustment and recovery in macroeconomic performance, a V-shaped recovery is a best-case scenario given the recession.
- The recoveries that followed the recessions of 1920-21 and 1953 in the U.S. are examples of V-shaped recoveries.
Understanding V-Shaped Recovery
V-shaped recovery is one of the countless shapes a recession and recovery chart could take, including L-shaped, W-shaped, U-shaped, and J-shaped.
Each type of recovery represents the general shape of the chart of economic metrics that gauge the health of the economy. Economists develop these charts by examining the relevant measures of economic health, such as employment rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and industrial production indexes.
In a V-shaped recovery, an economy that has suffered a sharp economic decline experiences a fast and strong rebound. Such recoveries are generally spurred by a significant shift in economic activity caused by rapid readjustment of consumer demand and business investment spending. Because of the economy’s rapid adjustment and quick recovery in the major metrics of macroeconomic performance, a V-shaped recovery can be thought of as a best-case scenario for an economy in recession.
Those interested in learning more about V-shaped recoveries and other financial topics may want to consider enrolling in one of the best investing courses currently available.
Historical Examples of V-Shaped Recovery
Two periods of recession and recovery in the U.
S. stand out as examples of V-shaped recoveries.
The Depression of 1920 to 1921
In 1920, the U.S. entered a steep recession that was feared to have the potential to become a major depression. The U.S. economy was still adjusting from large shifts in government spending, industrial activity, and inflationary monetary policy that had been directed to the war effort during the World War I. It was also reeling from the impact of the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918–1920.
By 1919, World War I had ended, and more than 1.5 million soldiers returned home from the war, flooding the economy with new workers. Simultaneously, the federal government slashed spending by 65%, including closing munitions factories that were no longer needed for the war effort. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy didn’t help because it hiked the discount rate, its main policy tool at the time, by 244 basis points (or 2.44%). Interest rates in the economy rose to 7% by mid-1920.
As a result, the postwar economy of 1920 experienced a decline in production of more than 32%, and unemployment surged to 12% as some businesses failed and many others saw a 75% drop in profits.
The impact on the financial markets was devastating as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted by 47% that year.
By modern standards, the monetary and fiscal policy responses were wholly inadequate to address the deep downturn. Unemployment insurance as we know it did not yet exist, though state and local committees to provide some relief were set up late in the recession.
The federal government’s cut in spending throughout the 1920 recession, which would today be called contractionary fiscal policy, virtually guaranteed making the recession worse.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve increased rates in 1919 and early 1920, which is contractionary because it leads to fewer loans, reducing the money supply in the economy. The Fed then lowered interest rates late as the economy recovered in 1921, and by 1923, interest rates were 3%. The 1919–1923 monetary policy would be the reverse of what policymakers would likely do today.
These apparent policy missteps resulted in a sharp, V-shaped recovery as failing businesses were quickly liquidated and their assets reallocated to new uses, businesses, and industries.
Prices and wages fell and adjusted to reflect the new structure of production and consumption in the post-war, post-pandemic, and increasingly urbanizing society.
Workers found new jobs in the new businesses and industries, and the economy quickly recovered and entered a renewed period of expansion known as the Roaring Twenties. As a result, the unemployment rate fell to 2.4% and gross national product (GNP) rose 4.2% per year through 1929.
The Recession of 1953
The recession of 1953 in the U.S. is another clear example of a V-shaped recovery. This recession was relatively brief and mild, with only a 2.2% decline in GDP and an unemployment rate of 6.1%. Growth began to slow in the third quarter of 1953, but by the fourth quarter of 1954 was back at a pace well above the trend. Therefore, the chart for this recession and recovery would represent a V-shape.
As in 1920-21, an important factor contributing to the quick recovery was the (by modern standards wildly inappropriate) policy response, or rather the lack thereof.
The Fed’s monetary policy response was underwhelming, with a half-percentage-point drop in the discount rate and a three-quarters point drop in the fed funds rate late in the recession. This represents the weakest monetary policy response in the post-World War II era. In terms of fiscal policy, the federal government took no steps to increase spending and overall tightened fiscal policy during the recession and recovery as measured by the high-employment budget surplus, an indicator of the direction of fiscal policy popular among economists.
Once again, a restrained approach to monetary and fiscal policy in the face of recession facilitated the V-shaped recovery that followed. Marring the recovery was the fact that unemployment continued to rise even after the end of the declared recession, peaking in September 1954, possibly due to the Fed’s policy shift to interest rate cuts in 1954, which may have slowed the recovery.
Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2022
What Do Chart Patterns Look Like During an Economic Recovery?
Economic recoveries can last for many years.
The shapes of the chart patterns that typically form range from sharp bounces to softer gradual curves. There are many factors that influence economic recoveries, so no two patterns are alike. Traders will often look to common formations such as a double bottom, V-shape, or U-shape when planning how to position themselves during these important inflection points.
What Is a Double-Dip Recession?
A double-dip recession occurs when there is a short-term recovery followed by another recession. Sometimes, active traders will use a V-, W-, or U-shaped chart pattern to mark the reversal in a primary trend. It is worth noting that a double-dip recession is a non-zero probability that can lead to severe losses for those who rely on reversal patterns for trying to time a market or economic reversal.
What Is a Double Bottom Pattern?
A double bottom is a reversal pattern that is used by followers of technical analysis to mark a major shift in the price of a security. More broadly, active traders also use chart patterns such as a double bottom, or V-shape, to mark major shifts in broad market indexes and changes in economic sentiment.
What Is a Reversal Pattern?
A reversal pattern is a chart pattern used by followers of technical analysis to mark the shift in the direction of the predominant trend. Common examples include double top, double bottom, triple top, triple bottom. Broadly speaking, reversal patterns often follow a V-, W-, or U-shape, depending on the conviction of market participants.
The Bottom Line
A V-shaped recovery is a type of economic recession and recovery that resembles a “V” shape in economists’ and traders’ charting. This type of recovery involves a sharp rise back to a previous peak after a sharp decline in these measurements, and is considered a best-case scenario because of the speed of adjustment and recovery in macroeconomic performance.
Such recoveries are usually powered by a significant shift in economic activity caused by rapid readjustment of consumer demand and spending on business investments.
Hyper-V VHDX / VHD Data Recovery Software to Recover VHD & VHDX File
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Restore hosted Hyper-V VMs from Azure using Azure Site Recovery – Azure Site Recovery
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This article describes how to restore the health of Azure VMs created after failover of Hyper-V VMs from an on-premises site in Azure using Azure Site Recovery.
- Recovery of Hyper-V VMs from Azure requires a scheduled failover from Azure to the on-premises site. If the failover direction is from Azure to on-premises, this is considered a failover.
- Because Azure is a highly available environment and VMs are always available, restoring hosting from Azure is a scheduled activity. You can schedule some downtime so that your workloads can start running on-premises again.
- Scheduled repositioning of VMs in Azure shuts down and loads the latest changes. No data loss is expected.
Before you begin
- Learn about the types of location restore you can use – restore to original location and restore to alternate location.
- Verify that the Azure VMs are using a storage account and not managed disks. Restoring hosted Hyper-V virtual machines to Azure machines using managed disks is not supported.
- Make sure your local Hyper-V host (or System Center VMM server if you’re using Site Recovery) is running and connected to Azure.
- Verify that the failover and commit for the virtual machines has completed. You don’t need to configure specific Site Recovery components to restore hosted Hyper-V VMs from Azure.
- The time it takes to complete data synchronization and start the local virtual machine depends on a number of factors. To speed up the download of data, you can configure the Microsoft Recovery Services Agent to use more threads to parallelize the download. More.
Note
Alternate location recovery is not possible when using recovery plans.
Restoring the placement to its original location.
To restore hosted Hyper-V VMs in Azure to the original on-premises VM, run a scheduled failover from Azure to the on-premises site as follows:
In storage, select Replicated Items and select the VM. Right click the virtual machine and select > Planned failover . If you are not running a recovery plan, select the plan name and click Failover > Scheduled Failover .
On page Confirm Planned Failover , select the source and destination locations. Remember the failover direction. If the failover from the primary location is done correctly and all VMs are in the secondary location, then this data is for informational purposes only.
In window Data synchronization , select the required option:
- Data synchronization before failover (synchronization of delta changes only) . This setting minimizes virtual machine downtime, as synchronization occurs without shutting them down.
- Stage 1 . A snapshot of the Azure VM is taken and copied to the on-premises Hyper-V host. The machine will continue to run in Azure.
- Phase 2. The Azure VM is shutting down, so no new changes are made. The last set of delta changes is pushed to the local server, after which the local virtual machine is started.
- Synchronize data only during failover (full load) – This option is faster because it assumes that most of the disk has changed and does not require time to calculate checksums. This option does not perform a checksum calculation.
- Disc is being downloaded.
- We recommend using this setting if you’ve been using Azure for a while (a month or more) or if the on-premises VM has been deleted.
- Data synchronization before failover (synchronization of delta changes only) . This setting minimizes virtual machine downtime, as synchronization occurs without shutting them down.
VMM only: If data encryption for the cloud is enabled, under Encryption key , select the certificate that was issued when you enabled data encryption during provider installation on the VMM server.
Start a failover. On the tab of Job , you can monitor the progress of the failover.
If you chose to sync data before failover, after initial data sync completes and when you’re ready to shut down virtual machines in Azure, navigate to Jobs > Job Name > Full Failover . This way you will do the following:
- You are shutting down the Azure machine.
- You are pushing the latest changes to the local virtual machine.
- You are starting a local virtual machine.
You can now log in to the virtual machine’s local computer to verify that it is available as expected.
The virtual machine will be in a commit pending state. Click Apply to apply the failover.
To complete hosting restore, click Reverse Replication to start replicating the on-premises VM to Azure again.
This option does not perform a checksum calculation.
Restoring placement to an alternate location.
To restore hosting to an alternate location, proceed as follows:
If you are setting up new hardware, install a supported version of Windows and the Hyper-V role on the computer.
Create a virtual network switch with the same name as on the source server.
Select group Protected items > Protection group
-> , select the virtual machine for which you want to failover, and then select Planned failover . If required in section Confirm planned failover select Create a local virtual machine if it doesn’t exist .
Under Host name , select the new Hyper-V host server that you want to host the virtual machine on.
Under Data Synchronization , we recommend that you select the Synchronize data before failover option. This will minimize the downtime of the virtual machines, as the synchronization will be done without shutting them down. It does the following:
- Step 1. Takes a snapshot of the Azure VM and copies it to the on-premises Hyper-V host. The machine will continue to run in Azure.
- Phase 2. The Azure VM is shutting down, so no new changes are made. The last set of changes is pushed to the local server, after which the local virtual machine is started.
Select this check box to start failover (failover).
When the initial sync completes and you’re ready to shut down the VM in Azure, select Jobs
> Full Failover . This command will shut down the Azure machine and push the latest changes to the local VM, which will then be started. You can log in to the local virtual machine to verify that everything is working correctly.
Then click Commit to complete the failover. Committing removes the Azure VM and its disks, and then prepares the on-premises VM for reprotection.
Click Reverse Replication to start replicating the on-premises VM to Azure. Only changes made after the virtual machine has been powered off in Azure will be replicated.
Note
- If you cancel the restore hosting job during the data synchronization phase, the local virtual machine will be in a corrupted state. This is because data synchronization copies the latest data from the Azure VM disks to the local data disks, and until synchronization completes, the data disks may be in an inconsistent state. If you start a local virtual machine after canceling data synchronization, it may not boot. In this case, restart the failover to complete the data synchronization.
- Alternate location recovery is not possible when using recovery plans.
- If you cancel the restore hosting job during the data synchronization phase, the local virtual machine will be in a corrupted state. This is because data synchronization copies the latest data from the Azure VM disks to the local data disks, and until synchronization completes, the data disks may be in an inconsistent state.
If you start a local virtual machine after canceling data synchronization, it may not boot. In this case, restart the failover to complete the data synchronization.What to do next
After replicating the on-premises VM to Azure, you can perform another failover to Azure if necessary.
How to restore access to mail if you forgot your password: methods, instructions
This article describes how to restore access and log into Mail.ru Mail if you forgot your password.
Boxes created with VK ID and Gosuslug accounts do not have a password. If you cannot enter such a box, restore access on the VK ID or State Services website.
Children’s mail also does not have a password, the child enters it using a code from SMS. If the phone to which the SMS with the code is received is not available, change the number in the adult’s mail settings.
Go to → “All settings” → “Security” → “Contacts and addresses”. Delete the unavailable number and add a new one. If the phone is available, but SMS is not received, write to the support service.
- Restore access
- By phone
- By reserve mail
- Through the Mail.ru Mail application
- Through support
- You forgot your password, but two-factor authentication is enabled
Restore access to Mail.ru mail
- Go to the recovery form.
- Enter a mailbox name.
- Select a recovery method.
If a phone number, backup mail is attached to the mailbox, or the Mail.ru Mail application is installed on the phone, you can choose one of these methods for recovery.
If the recovery data is not added or you do not have access to it, you can only restore it with the support service.
Restore access to mail by phone number
- Select the “By phone” method.
- Select a number from the list if more than one is added.
- Complete the number.
- Enter code from SMS.
- Create a new password.
Some operators have call confirmation. Instead of the code from SMS, you will need to enter the number from which you called.
Why can’t I restore access by calling
Restore access via backup mail
- Select the “By mail” method.
- Select mail if more than one is added.
- A letter from the support service will be sent to the mail. Follow the link in it.
Restore access through the Mail.ru Mail application
- Select the “Via application” method.
- Open the Mail.ru application. A login code will appear on top of the screen.
- Enter this code on the site.
