How did LAX.com become the top e-commerce destination for lacrosse. What sets LAX.com apart from competitors in terms of pricing, knowledge, and selection. Why is LAX.com committed to reinvesting in the growth of lacrosse as a sport.
The Rise of LAX.com: A Lacrosse E-commerce Pioneer
LAX.com has established itself as a leader in the lacrosse industry since its inception in 2000. The company quickly set the standard for online retailers in the growing sport of lacrosse. In February 2010, LAX.com underwent a significant transformation when it was acquired by a team of experienced entrepreneurs and dedicated lacrosse players and coaches. This acquisition marked a turning point for the company, as the new leadership was committed to elevating the business to new heights.
The success of LAX.com can be attributed to several key factors:
- Early entry into the e-commerce space for lacrosse equipment
- Acquisition by a team with deep industry knowledge and experience
- Commitment to providing high-quality products and exceptional customer service
- Continuous reinvestment in the growth of the sport
Inside LAX.com: State-of-the-Art Facilities and Expert Staff
LAX.com’s operations are centralized in Norwalk, CT, where the company maintains a state-of-the-art warehouse and office complex. This facility serves as the hub for all aspects of the business, ensuring efficient and effective management of inventory, shipping, and customer service.
Key Features of LAX.com’s Facilities:
- Year-round stocking of top-quality lacrosse products
- Dedicated shipping, product, and fulfillment experts
- Artificial grass surface for product testing and demonstrations
The company’s commitment to excellence is evident in its approach to staffing. LAX.com employs a team of experienced lacrosse players and coaches who are readily available to assist customers with any questions or concerns. This expertise ensures that customers receive accurate and helpful information, whether they are advanced players or parents new to the sport.
LAX.com’s Competitive Edge: Pricing, Knowledge, and Selection
LAX.com has built its reputation on three core pillars: competitive pricing, expert knowledge, and extensive product selection. These factors contribute significantly to the company’s success in the lacrosse equipment and apparel market.
Transparent and Competitive Pricing
How does LAX.com approach pricing? The company prides itself on offering the lowest, most competitive prices in the industry without resorting to gimmicks or misleading promotions. Unlike some competitors, LAX.com does not employ tactics such as fake membership clubs or constant “sale” prices. This transparent approach to pricing instills confidence in customers and encourages repeat business.
Expert Knowledge and Customer Support
What sets LAX.com’s customer service apart? When customers contact LAX.com, they are connected directly with experienced lacrosse players and coaches, not generic call center operators. This ensures that customers receive accurate, helpful information from individuals who truly understand the sport and its equipment.
Extensive Product Selection
LAX.com offers a wide range of lacrosse equipment and apparel to suit players of all skill levels and budgets. The company carefully curates its product lineup, selecting only the best items from top manufacturers such as Nike, STX, Warrior, Brine, Under Armour, StringKing, Maverik, Epoch, Adrenaline, ECD, and Cascade.
Efficient Shipping and Customer-Friendly Policies
LAX.com understands the importance of timely delivery and customer satisfaction. The company has implemented efficient shipping processes and customer-friendly policies to ensure a positive shopping experience.
Rapid Order Fulfillment
How quickly does LAX.com process orders? Over 95% of LAX.com orders ship on the same business day, provided they are placed before 2:00 PM EDT. This efficient fulfillment process means that customers on the East Coast often receive their orders the next day, while those in the Midwest or Florida typically receive their packages within two days. West Coast customers usually receive their orders on the third business day.
Warranty and Returns
LAX.com’s warranty and return policies are designed to provide customers with peace of mind. The company offers a smooth, stress-free return and exchange process, allowing customers to shop with confidence.
LAX.com’s Commitment to Growing the Sport of Lacrosse
Unlike many e-commerce companies focused solely on profits, LAX.com is deeply committed to reinvesting in the growth of lacrosse as a sport. This commitment is evident in various initiatives and content offerings provided by the company.
Comprehensive Lacrosse Content
What type of content does LAX.com offer to support the lacrosse community? The company provides a wide range of lacrosse-related content, including:
- High school and college game highlight videos
- NCAA men’s stats and scores
- Youth tournament videos
- In-depth and behind-the-scenes documentaries
This content serves as a valuable resource for lacrosse enthusiasts, providing entertainment, information, and inspiration to players and fans alike.
Industry-Leading Sponsorships and Features
LAX.com’s commitment to the sport extends beyond content creation. The company is involved in national sponsorships and produces special features that are widely recognized as the best in the industry. These initiatives help promote lacrosse and support its continued growth at various levels of play.
LAX.com’s Vision: Becoming the Ultimate Lacrosse Resource
What is LAX.com’s ultimate goal? The company’s vision is to become the single source for lacrosse consumers, providing everything from equipment and apparel to news, highlights, and educational content. To achieve this goal, LAX.com focuses on several key areas:
- Providing exceptional customer service
- Offering the best prices in the industry
- Maintaining deep product knowledge
- Curating the best selection of lacrosse equipment and apparel
By consistently excelling in these areas, LAX.com aims to solidify its position as the recognized leader in lacrosse content and gear. The company’s dedication to serving players of all ages and abilities has helped it build a loyal customer base and establish a strong reputation within the lacrosse community.
LAX World: Brick-and-Mortar Presence in the Lacrosse Market
While LAX.com has established itself as a dominant online retailer, the lacrosse market also includes brick-and-mortar stores that cater to local communities. One such example is LAX World, which operates physical locations in addition to its online presence.
LAX World at Harford Mall: A Local Lacrosse Destination
LAX World maintains a store at Harford Mall in Bel Air, Maryland, providing lacrosse enthusiasts in the area with a physical location to browse and purchase equipment. The store’s details include:
- Address: 696 Belair Rd, Bel Air, MD 21014
- Location in Mall: Main Level, H03
- Phone Number: (410) 420-1112
- Hours of Operation: Monday through Saturday, 10:00 am – 9:00 pm
This physical presence allows LAX World to serve the local lacrosse community directly, offering personalized service and the opportunity for customers to see and handle products before making a purchase.
Expanding Local Reach
How extensive is LAX World’s physical presence? In addition to the Harford Mall location, LAX World operates at least one more store within a 50-mile radius. This network of physical stores complements the company’s online offerings, providing customers with multiple options for purchasing lacrosse equipment and apparel.
The combination of online and brick-and-mortar retail in the lacrosse industry demonstrates the sport’s growing popularity and the diverse ways in which companies are meeting the needs of players and enthusiasts. While e-commerce giants like LAX.com dominate the online space, physical stores like LAX World continue to play an important role in serving local communities and providing hands-on shopping experiences.
The Future of Lacrosse Retail: Blending Online and Offline Experiences
As the lacrosse industry continues to evolve, companies like LAX.com and LAX World are likely to adapt their strategies to meet changing consumer preferences. This may involve further integration of online and offline shopping experiences, such as:
- Offering in-store pickup for online orders
- Providing virtual product demonstrations and fittings
- Hosting community events and clinics at physical store locations
- Developing mobile apps for seamless shopping across platforms
By embracing these innovations and continuing to prioritize customer service, product knowledge, and community engagement, lacrosse retailers can support the growth of the sport while building successful, sustainable businesses.
The success of companies like LAX.com and the continued presence of brick-and-mortar stores like LAX World underscore the robust nature of the lacrosse market. As the sport continues to grow in popularity, these retailers play a crucial role in providing players with the equipment, apparel, and resources they need to enjoy and excel in the game.
About LAX.com
Who We Are:
Founded in 2000, LAX.com quickly set the bar for online retailers becoming the top e-commerce destination for the growing sport of lacrosse. In February 2010, LAX.com was acquired by a seasoned team of entrepreneurs and dedicated lacrosse players and coaches committed to taking the business to the next level.
The team at LAX.com works on all aspects of our business. Our state of the art warehouse and offices are located in Norwalk, CT and stocked 365 days a year with the best products in the game. Our shipping, product and fulfillment experts insure that all the gear that leaves our warehouse is the highest quality and gets to your doorstep as fast and accurately as possible. The LAX.com warehouse also includes an artificial grass surface that we use for product testing and some serious demo’s.
How We Operate:
Price: LAX.com offers the lowest, most competitive prices in the industry.
You will never see LAX.com playing tricks like our competitors. There is no fake Club to join… and we do not advertise that the “original price” is always discounted and everything is on sale. Check our prices and shipping against our competitors and you will buy with confidence from LAX.com every time!
Knowledge: Our experienced lacrosse staff is readily available to answer any questions from advanced players to new parents and their younger players. You will never get a telephone operator, just real lacrosse players and coaches. Every year we comb through all the lacrosse gear in the world, rip it apart and choose only the best to live on LAX.com.
Selection: We stock the deepest selection of cutting edge new product, apparel and clearance to compliment every budget and ability of play. We carry a wide range and variety of the best gear, hand selected from the top manufacturer’s of Lacrosse equipment: Nike, STX, Warrior, Brine, Under Armour, StringKing, Maverik, Epoch, Adrenaline, ECD and Cascade.
Speed of Delivery: We are fast! Over 95% of LAX.com orders ship the same business day. Yes, that means if you place your order on Tuesday, Before 2:00 EDT it is most likely going to ship out on Tuesday. We get it to you as fast as possible. If you are on the east coast you will usually have your order on the next day. If you live in the middle of country or in Florida you will usually have your package on day 2. The west coast usually gets there packages on the 3rd business day.
Warranty and Returns: Our policies here are designed to let every consumer buy with confidence. No gimmicks , no fake clubs or false sales. We pride ourselves on a smooth, stress free return and exchange process.
Our Committment to the Growth of Lacrosse:
LAX.com is committed to reinvesting significant assets back into our sport. Our content includes high school and college game highlight videos, NCAA men’s stats and scores, youth tournament videos, in-depth and behind the scenes documentaries and more.
For any true lacrosse fan, a daily dose of LAX.com is a must. Our videos, special features and national sponsorships are widely recognized as the best in the industry.
Unlike our competitors, LAX.com is not just an e-commerce company solely interested in a quick buck. We are firmly committed to growing the sport of lacrosse by professionally servicing each and every customer of every age and ability. We love giving back to the sport that has fueled our success.
Our Goal:
Our vision is to be the single source for lacrosse consumers. We believe that if we continue to focus on providing the absolute best service, the best prices, deep product knowledge and the best selection, we will continue to grow as a company. These are the reasons that LAX.com continues to sit atop the lacrosse community as the recognized leader in content and gear. We welcome you to become one of those “in lacrosse” who have known and trusted LAX.com for over a decade!
LAX. com
Where Players Get Their Gear
LAX World at Harford Mall (Bel Air) – Hours & Phone
View info on LAX World store located at Harford Mall in Bel Air, MD – including address, map, store hours, phone number, and more.
| Store: | LAX World |
| Mall: | Harford Mall |
| Mall Address: | 696 Belair Rd Bel Air, MD 21014 |
| Store Location in Mall: | Main Level, H03 |
| Store Phone Number: | (410) 420-1112 |
| Monday | 10:00 am – 9:00 pm |
| Tuesday | 10:00 am – 9:00 pm |
| Wednesday | 10:00 am – 9:00 pm |
| Thursday | 10:00 am – 9:00 pm |
| Friday | 10:00 am – 9:00 pm |
| Saturday | 10:00 am – 9:00 pm |
LAX World has 1 more store location within 50 miles, besides the location at Harford Mall.
Sorry, our database does not show any stores similar to LAX World within 20 miles of Harford Mall.
LAWA Official Site | Commercial Development
Los Angeles World Airports’ Commercial Development Division (CDD) is charged with stimulating and promoting economic development and business retention. CDD manages terminal and airfield real estate, cargo warehousing, concessions, ground transportation, parking and leasing at LAX, VNY and Palmdale Land Holdings. CDD is also in charge of economic development, feasibility, valuation and financial planning analyses.
Airline Property and Concession Services
Airline Property and Concession Services is responsible for developing and maintaining client relationships with all LAX tenants, negotiating occupancy agreements with aeronautical and government tenants for space in LAX facilities, managing all concessions relationships, and protecting LAWA’s assets.
Business Support and Space Planning
Business Support and Space Planning provides the highest quality support services in the most efficient manner that will support the goals of the Commercial Development Group and ensure an environment of continued improvement, excellence, integrity, professionalism, service, and teamwork.
CDG Financial and Portfolio Management
CDG Financial and Portfolio Management (FPM) provides financial management for CDG including but not limited to budgeting, revenue forecasting, and periodic financial reporting of key areas. In addition FPM provides portfolio management of LAWA’s real estate holdings, including but not limited to, resetting rental rates at fair market level, procuring and reviewing appraisal reports, and maintaining database of real estate market data.
Property Services
Negotiates Agreements for airfield and off-airfield City-owned properties at LAX, Van Nuys, and Palmdale Airports. Manage new entrants/assignments and coordinate the relocation process for those tenants impacted by the Midfield Taxiways and Southside Airfield Improvement projects.
Administer competitive bids and/or competitive proposals for new development and re-development projects at LAX, Van Nuys and Palmdale Airports. Negotiate agreements with prospective tenants and other entities to lease City-owned property. Analyze environmental reports to estimate their effect on property values. Secure execution of necessary legal documents. Negotiating with prospective tenants and other entities to lease LAWA owned property. Interact with potential tenants to determine needs and requirements; to assess long term plans as they relate to potential leases.
Strategic Commercial Management
Strategic Commercial Management (SCM) maximizes revenue and reduces expenses through innovative operations and contract agreements. In addition, SCM provides contract management, administration, and audit compliance for certain landside agreements and ongoing programs while also emphasizing customer service and complaint resolution.
For more information regarding any of these programs, please select the Contact Us tab.
For more information about doing business with LAWA, please select the Current Tenant Information tab.
LAX Warehouse/Sort/Ramp Agents – All Shifts DL required job in Los Angeles at DHL Express
Company Description
DHL is a global leading business where opportunities are endless. A company that pioneered cross-border express shipping and now operates in more than 220 countries and territories worldwide. DHL facilitate international trade and support business to go Global and help ensure the world stay connected. The company connects people and improve life and its 100,000 strong teams of international specialist that make it happen. The company knows that it has a truly unique workplace culture at DHL Express. According to the great place to work list of the world’s best workplace 2021, DHL is numbered as the second-best place in the world.
They are also recognized as a global Top Employer for the last 7 years.
Job Description
What makes DHL great? Our People! We know each employee’s individual contributions make us the #1 Express Delivery and Logistics Company in the world.
Start YOUR career with DHL today…at our LAX Gateway!
We have an immediate openings for Warehouse, Sort, and Ramp Agents at our LAX gateway location. The selected candidate will ensure the efficient and timely processing and handling of customer outbound and inbound shipments. Success in this position depends on the ability to ensure compliance with safety, security, regulatory, and company policies, as well as the ability to work well in a team environment. The ideal candidate will have the ability to consistently lift items weighing between 35 lbs. unassisted and 75 lbs. with assistance while working in a warehouse environment.
Key Accountabilities:
- Under tight deadlines, performs duties such as sorting, packing, loading, unloading containers
- Palletizing and separation of freight/documents
- Ensures all delivery material is prepared for shipment
- Operates a scanner to record shipping and package information for documents/packages picked up or delivered
- Reports any suspected breach of security or unusual happenings to supervisor immediately
- Maintains good work habits, including reporting to work on time and adhering to standard work and safety procedures
- May assist supervisor in orienting, training, assigning and checking the work of other employees
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new jobs posted daily
This job was posted on Wed Dec 23 2020 and expired on Mon Dec 28 2020.
Minimum
$24,810
$28,546
average
Maximum
$32,726
Tasks
- Advise clients on transportation and payment methods.
- Track delivery progress of shipments.
- Notify consignees, passengers, or customers of freight or baggage arrival and arrange for delivery.
- Determine method of shipment and prepare bills of lading, invoices, and other shipping documents.
- Estimate freight or postal rates and record shipment costs and weights.
- Keep records of all goods shipped, received, and stored.
- Enter shipping information into a computer by hand or by a hand-held scanner that reads bar codes on goods.
- Check import or export documentation to determine cargo contents and use tariff coding system to classify goods according to fee or tariff group.
- Prepare manifests showing numbers of airplane passengers and baggage, mail, and freight weights, transmitting data to destinations.
- Negotiate and arrange transport of goods with shipping or freight companies.
- Install straps, braces, and padding to loads to prevent shifting or damage during shipment.
- Assemble containers and crates used to transport items, such as machines or vehicles.
- Arrange insurance coverage for goods.
- Direct or participate in cargo loading to ensure completeness of load and even distribution of weight.
- Coordinate and supervise activities of workers engaged in packing and shipping merchandise.
- Route received goods to first available flight or to appropriate storage areas or departments, using forklifts, hand trucks, or other equipment.
- Direct delivery trucks to shipping doors or designated marshaling areas and help load and unload goods safely.
- Open cargo containers and unwrap contents, using steel cutters, crowbars, or other hand tools.
- Contact vendors or claims adjustment departments to resolve shipment problems or contact service depots to arrange for repairs.
- Retrieve stored items and trace lost shipments as necessary.
- Attach address labels, identification codes, and shipping instructions to containers.
- Inspect and count items received and check them against invoices or other documents, recording shortages and rejecting damaged goods.
- Maintain a supply of packing materials.
- Pack goods for shipping, using tools such as staplers, strapping machines, and hammers.
Skills
- Reading Comprehension – Understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents.
- Active Listening – Giving full attention to what other people are saying, taking time to understand the points being made, asking questions as appropriate, and not interrupting at inappropriate times.
- Speaking – Talking to others to convey information effectively.
- Critical Thinking – Using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions, conclusions or approaches to problems.
- Monitoring – Monitoring/Assessing performance of yourself, other individuals, or organizations to make improvements or take corrective action.
- Service Orientation – Actively looking for ways to help people.
- Complex Problem Solving – Identifying complex problems and reviewing related information to develop and evaluate options and implement solutions.
- Time Management – Managing one’s own time and the time of others.
Knowledge
- Clerical – Knowledge of administrative and clerical procedures and systems such as word processing, managing files and records, stenography and transcription, designing forms, and other office procedures and terminology.
- Sales and Marketing – Knowledge of principles and methods for showing, promoting, and selling products or services. This includes marketing strategy and tactics, product demonstration, sales techniques, and sales control systems.
- Customer and Personal Service – Knowledge of principles and processes for providing customer and personal services. This includes customer needs assessment, meeting quality standards for services, and evaluation of customer satisfaction.
- Mathematics – Knowledge of arithmetic, algebra, geometry, calculus, statistics, and their applications.
- Geography – Knowledge of principles and methods for describing the features of land, sea, and air masses, including their physical characteristics, locations, interrelationships, and distribution of plant, animal, and human life.
- English Language – Knowledge of the structure and content of the English language including the meaning and spelling of words, rules of composition, and grammar.
- Public Safety and Security – Knowledge of relevant equipment, policies, procedures, and strategies to promote effective local, state, or national security operations for the protection of people, data, property, and institutions.
- Transportation – Knowledge of principles and methods for moving people or goods by air, rail, sea, or road, including the relative costs and benefits.
This includes customer needs assessment, meeting quality standards for services, and evaluation of customer satisfaction.
DHL Express
Description
DHL is a global leading business where opportunities are endless. A company that pioneered cross-border express shipping and now operates in more than 220 countries and territories worldwide. DHL facilitate international trade and support business to go Global and help ensure the world stay connected. The company connects people and improve life and its 100,000 strong teams of international specialist that make it happen. The company knows that it has a truly unique workplace culture at DHL Express. According to the great place to work list of the world’s best workplace 2021, DHL is numbered as the second-best place in the world. They are also recognized as a global Top Employer for the last 7 years.
Location
Los Angeles, CA, and others
Industry
CouriersBusiness Support
Total job postings in the past
Based on 130 job boards, duplications excluded
2 weeks
Average posting lifetime
Total job posting distribution in the past
Based on 130 job boards, duplications excluded
| Job category | Distribution | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation & Logistics | 22. 9% | 41% | 1,280% |
| Other | 12.6% | 20% | 1,305% |
| Construction | 8.3% | 20% | 1,129% |
| Manufacturing | 8.3% | 16% | 1,080% |
| Administrative | 7. 5% | 32% | 2,246% |
| Consulting & Upper Management | 5.8% | 52% | 1,846% |
| Sales | 5.5% | 69% | 1,026% |
| Customer Service | 4.5% | 3% | 983% |
| IT | 3. 7% | 50% | 1,919% |
| Executive Management | 3.6% | 33% | 1,485% |
| Marketing & PR | 2.1% | 30% | 1,417% |
| Finance | 1.9% | 7% | 1,033% |
| Human Resources | 1. 8% | 10% | 1,600% |
| Banking | 1.6% | 3% | 769% |
| Engineering | 1.6% | 24% | 1,456% |
| Government & Military | 1.2% | 66% | 1,457% |
| Healthcare | 1. 2% | 8% | 629% |
| Protective Services | 1.2% | 18% | 1,078% |
| Legal | 1.0% | 46% | 2,050% |
| Hospitality & Travel | 0.9% | 21% | 1,183% |
| Real Estate | 0. 6% | 30% | 920% |
| Arts & Entertainment | 0.5% | 73% | 457% |
| Education | 0.4% | 5% | 925% |
| Retail | 0.4% | 40% | 800% |
| Insurance | 0. 4% | 20% | 175% |
| Telecommunications | 0.2% | 180% | 58% |
| Non-Profit & Volunteering | 0.2% | 14% | 650% |
| Food Services | 0.1% | 75% | 58% |
Head of Airfreight
DHL Express
Chicago, IL
We have an exciting opportunity for a Head of Airfreighttoimplement and led Chicago’s Airfreight strategy, product portfolio, processes and procurement in accordance with the overall strategy of the
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Los Angeles LAX Area Hydroponics Store
About
When you want to set up a great indoor growing project, you need to go to the best Los Angeles hydroponic store.
At GreenCoast Hydroponics, we make it our mission to offer outstanding customer service and to sell only the best products. At our Los Angeles hydro store, we provide you with the tools you need to succeed for your hydroponic project.
Our Store
GreenCoast Hydroponics is not your average grow shop. The center of our Los Angeles hydroponic store has always been the customer, and the staff at our grow shop are enthusiastic about our products and trained in a specific area to help with your indoor growing project. Beginners and experienced growers alike can discover something new every day, as our Los Angeles hydroponic supply store is designed to be a space for research and learning.
Our Products
At our LA grow shop, we strive to provide you with the best tools from our favorite brands. We sell everything from Grodan for those who want precision growing, to top General Hydroponics nutrients to help your plants grow. Additionally, our hydro store sells grow lights so your plants can thrive at different stages of growth and grow media to hold your hydroponic plants in place.
Our Services
We want you to be successful in your personal and business hydroponic endeavors. That’s why customers who come to our LA grow store are privy to a comprehensive professional services package. Everyone has a different grow space, and at our Los Angeles hydroponic store, we’ve developed a comprehensive method to help you ensure peak plant growth using data and a high standard of care.
Directions
Our indoor grow shop is located at 5200 West 104th Street, conveniently located minutes from the Los Angeles International Airport. From the airport, you can access our Los Angeles hydroponic store by driving along World Way, to Vicksburg Avenue, turning left on 96th Street. From 96th Street, turn right on Airport Blvd, and use the middle lane to turn left onto W Century Blvd. After you reach 104th Street, continue until you pass Glasgow Place. GreenCoast Hydroponics will be on your right hand side, next to Smart Office Supplies.
Come Visit GreenCoast Hydroponics Today!
Our LA grow store is your destination for all of your indoor growing needs! Come see us in person or call us at 310-337-6995 and let us give you the best indoor growing experience today!
Freight Forwarder Los Angeles | AIT Worldwide Logistics
Grow Your Business with the Leading Freight Forwarder in Los Angeles
Level up your customers’ experience with world-class shipping options
Whether your organization is based on the U.
S. West Coast, or half a world away, AIT’s experienced team of freight forwarders in Los Angeles is ready to work with you to design unique transportation logistics solutions tailored to fit your needs.
As one of the most trusted Los Angeles logistics companies, AIT is your go-to for regional and global freight forwarding and logistics services solutions, including:
Why choose AIT over other Los Angeles logistics companies?
At AIT, our product is freight solutions. We’re a freight forwarder, yes—but we’re much more than that.
Whether you shipping to Los Angeles, or across the globe, we act as a transportation services liaison—a deeply experienced and connected access point to a worldwide network of professionals and resources.
Our reach and expertise spans across every cargo channel and method, from air to sea to road to rail. And our collection of logistics support services includes a mix of offerings shippers won’t find anywhere else, including insurance, advanced technology integrations, in-house customs brokerage, and more.
With what commodities is the AIT shipping team in Los Angeles most familiar?
Our talented team of freight forwarders in Los Angeles creates transportation logistics solutions every day for nearly every industry, with a strong focus on the aerospace, automotive, food and beverage, e-Commerce, government, and pharmaceutical markets.
Does AIT have freight forwarding facilities outside of Los Angeles?
Yes! AIT’s expanding footprint currently includes more than 85 locations across Asia, Europe, and North America. Explore AIT’s global locations.
What cargo security measures and certifications does AIT’s Los Angeles facility provide?
One reason AIT is one of the top logistics companies in Los Angeles is our dedication to security. The facility is a CTPAT-certified consolidator, with hazardous materials certification and ITAR registration.
AIT is also a member of the Transport Asset Protection Association, and all of AIT’s North American locations feature multiple, advanced safety and security features, including 24-hour monitoring, closed-circuit cameras, keypad access and a driver check-in and escort policy.
All U.S. AIT facilities are also authorized economic operators. Learn more about AIT’s credentials and approach to cargo security.
Enhance your offering with Los Angeles’ most trusted shipping experts
Whether you need help shipping in the Los Angeles region or you’re looking for global transportation logistics support, when you add one the AIT-Los Angeles team to your bench, you’ll see instant results. To get started today, contact an AIT representative.
AIT-Los Angeles Gives Back
Additional Resources
AIT Worldwide Logistics has a robust global logistics network, with more than 100 offices worldwide.
See our Global Network
LAX Warehouse/Sort/Ramp Agents – All Shifts DL required at DHL Express in Los Angeles, California
Job Description:
What makes DHL great? Our People! We know each employee’s individual contributions make us the #1 Express Delivery and Logistics Company in the world.
Start YOUR career with DHL today…at our LAX Gateway!
We have an immediate openings for Warehouse, Sort, and Ramp Agents at our LAX gateway location. The selected candidate will ensure the efficient and timely processing and handling of customer outbound and inbound shipments. Success in this position depends on the ability to ensure compliance with safety, security, regulatory, and company policies, as well as the ability to work well in a team environment. The ideal candidate will have the ability to consistently lift items weighing between 35 lbs. unassisted and 75 lbs. with assistance while working in a warehouse environment.
Key Accountabilities:
- Under tight deadlines, performs duties such as sorting, packing, loading, unloading containers
- Palletizing and separation of freight/documents
- Ensures all delivery material is prepared for shipment
- Operates a scanner to record shipping and package information for documents/packages picked up or delivered
- Reports any suspected breach of security or unusual happenings to supervisor immediately
- Maintains good work habits, including reporting to work on time and adhering to standard work and safety procedures
- May assist supervisor in orienting, training, assigning and checking the work of other employees
Key Skills & Requirements:
- Valid Driver’s License and a Motor Vehicle Record that meets Driving Privileges standards
- High School Diploma or Equivalent (GED)
- Must be at least 18 years of age or older
- Must pass pre-employment and TSA background and drug screening
- Must pass medical physical
- Must have availability to work any shift as needed
Physical Requirements:
- Must be able to lift up to seventy (70) lbs. occasionally with assistance
- Must be able to lift thirty- five (35) lbs. frequently unassisted
- Must be able to walk, climb stairs, reach overhead, squat, bend, kneel, stoop and crouch repeatedly
occasionally with assistance
DHL is an equal opportunity employer. We evaluate qualified applicants without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, disability, veteran status, or any other protected characteristic. The EEO is the Law poster is available here. http://www1.eeoc.gov/employers/upload/eeoc_self_print_poster.pdf
Apply Now
90,000 Is it possible to defeat the DPRK at all?
- Pavel Aksenov
- BBC Russian Service
Photo author, AFP
Photo caption,
The image of a North Korean soldier, poorly trained and poorly armed, which is often painted in the world press , in fact, it may be far from reality
The successes of North Korean engineers and scientists in nuclear and missile programs, harsh and fanciful expressions of propaganda television programs, finally, test launches of ballistic missiles, which Pyongyang openly called a rehearsal of strike on American targets.
..
The possibility, albeit hypothetical, of delivering a nuclear strike on American facilities in Japan, South Korea, and most importantly, the declared determination to do so, led the United States to demonstratively sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the Western Pacific.
The press in recent weeks openly discussed the possibility of a new military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
Whether the DPRK has nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles is a very important question, but even if they are not yet ready for use, the war with the DPRK does not seem to be an easy walk.For more than half a century, the DPRK has been preparing for a war with South Korea and the United States – and has thoroughly prepared for it.
The Korean military leadership, which, in fact, formally runs the country, is unlikely to expect to defeat South Korea, and even more so the United States, the main task of Pyongyang is to inflict unacceptable damage in the event of a possible military conflict.
Photo author, EPA
Photo caption,
The salvo of four ballistic missiles was impressive, but thousands of artillery systems pose a significantly greater danger
First of all, this concerns the shelling of strategic targets in South Korea with artillery shells and missiles from the DPRK, which can cause serious damage to one of the largest economies in Asia.
If the West decides to launch a military operation against the DPRK, it will probably win, but it is possible that the price of such a victory will be too high.
“Strong and Violent”
The biggest problem of the sluggish Korean crisis (South and North Korea are still formally at war) is the distance from the capital of the Republic of Korea, Seoul, to the border. It is about 40 kilometers long, so the city is within the reach of the DPRK artillery.
Near the four-kilometer demilitarized zone on the border of the two countries, North Korea has concentrated most of its cannon and rocket artillery, as well as ammunition depots for it.
It is believed that in the event of a military conflict with the United States or South Korea, artillery installations and MLRS will immediately move into position and deliver a powerful artillery strike against Seoul.
It is difficult to assess the scale of this strike, since there is almost no reliable data on how many and what North Korean systems are located near the border.It is also unknown what targets the gunners will choose – whether they will shoot at residential areas, key infrastructure or military targets.
Be that as it may, most military analysts have no doubts that an artillery strike will be the first step from North Korea in the event of a war. Pyongyang has already shown its readiness for this.
On the afternoon of November 23, 2010, North Korean artillery opened fire on the South Korean island of Yongpyeong, which is located near the disputed maritime border between the two states.This border was once established by South Korea unilaterally and was never recognized by Pyongyang.
As a result of an artillery duel from the South Korean side, four people died, and the entire civilian population of the island had to be evacuated.
“Artillery shells flew like lightning and struck hard and violently at targets that mimic Cheon Wa Dae [North Korean residence name] and Seoul’s rebel governing bodies,” the North Korean state news agency said in a statement.
Photo author, Reuters
Photo caption,
The M1978 Koksan 170-mm long-range howitzer is capable of shooting at a distance of up to 60 kilometers
Not all North Korean artillery pieces are capable of shooting at such a distance, but Pyongyang certainly has 170-mm long-range howitzers M1978 and M1989 Koksan (the name is not original – it was appropriated in the West), which, when using projectiles with a jet accelerator, are capable of firing at 60 kilometers, as well as 240 mm multiple launch rocket systems, the range of which is much longer.
According to the rough estimates of the Globalsecurity website, only one salvo of MLRS can be about four thousand rounds, and within the first hour, the barreled artillery can fire, according to various estimates, up to 500 thousand shells.
These figures are impossible to verify, they rather reflect the opinion of Western military analysts than a real assessment of the military potential of the DPRK’s border artillery – North Korea is one of the most closed countries in the world, and information about weapons is guarded there in the strictest manner.
What damage can be done to Seoul in the first hours of the war is difficult to say, not only because the number of artillery barrels is estimated only approximately.
Photo author, AFP
Photo caption,
North Korean multiple launch rocket systems shoot even farther than howitzers
Nobody knows how long such an artillery barrage will last. Although in recent decades, the DPRK has made efforts to develop self-propelled rather than towed systems that are easier to remove from return fire by changing position, those heavy weapons that can reach Seoul just have relatively low mobility.
South Korea, in turn, also has a powerful artillery fleet.
Considering that the military technologies of both South Korea itself and its American allies are much more developed, it can be assumed that the counter-battery fight will begin immediately and will be quite effective. In addition, military experts note that if the shelling of Seoul begins, the entire aviation of the DPRK’s opponents will be sent to suppress the batteries.
In addition, as noted in the analytical report of the Stratfor group, the incident with the shelling of Yongpyeong Island demonstrated not very high efficiency of the North Korean gunners.
Photo author, AFP
Photo caption,
The existence of many weapons abroad will only be known after they are shown at the parade in Pyongyang
Most military analysts agree that Seoul could be badly damaged as a result of such a shelling, but the city will not be turned into a “lunar landscape”.
It is also difficult to estimate the possible amount of losses.
It all depends on how sudden the strike will be, whether the residents have time to evacuate or take refuge in shelters, on what targets it will be delivered, how quickly the North Korean positions will be suppressed.
“In the early days, up to several thousand people may die, and then everything will depend on how quickly it will be possible to move the North Korean troops away from the city and destroy this artillery,” a senior researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Research HSE Vasily Kashin.
Nuclear Power Plants and Infrastructure
In addition to artillery and rocket systems, North Korea has short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, in the affected area of which is the entire territory of South Korea, and this primarily concerns nuclear reactors and infrastructure.
According to rough estimates, the number of such missiles may be several hundred, and possibly more than a thousand.
Photo caption,
What an ICBM is made of
Photo caption,
How an ICBM works
According to the World Nuclear Association, South Korea’s nuclear power industry is one of the most developed in the world. The country has built 25 nuclear reactors, concentrated in four centers. All of them are located in the central and southern parts of the country, but in the area of destruction of North Korean ballistic missiles.
In addition to nuclear power plants, other industrial objects, transport highways, communication centers, power lines and much more can also be hit.
“Similar things happened in cities such as Aleppo and Sarajevo, but this is a qualitatively different situation – there was no such dependence on infrastructure: in Aleppo, for example, there is no subway. will be very large. There will be huge losses and chaos, “says Vasily Kashin.
Photo author, Reuters
Photo caption,
The DPRK has several hundred medium and short-range ballistic missiles
The most dangerous in such a situation can be a ballistic missile hitting a nuclear power plant.
If it can damage the power unit and cause radiation leakage, the problem will immediately cease to be a headache for one country and become global.
Missile defense systems that already exist on the territory of South Korea, as well as those that are stationed there by the United States, in the event of a massive launch, will not be able to shoot down all the missiles.However, there is also no certainty that all those launched will hit the target. However, for a catastrophe, one shell is enough, which will partially destroy one reactor.
There are also chemical weapons stocks in the DPRK. It is believed that Pyongyang may have between 2.5 and 5 thousand metric tons of chemical weapons, but very little is known about what state they are in.
Private research group Stratfor claims North Korea is capable of producing sarin and VX, but according to the same report it has only 150 warheads (apparently for ballistic missiles) ready for use, according to the same report.
Overall, the group estimates that the DPRK will be able to use less than 1% of its total chemical weapons stockpile – which, nevertheless, could cause panic among the South Korean population.
Guard
North Korea has been preparing for defense for many decades. One of the weakest points of its army is its technical backwardness and lack of fuel necessary for training crews of tanks, aircraft and other military equipment. The North Korean army has a rather weak air defense system, and even a rather large fleet, which includes 72 operational-tactical submarines, two frigates and several hundred patrol boats, is not considered a serious force due to its very outdated technology.
In the North Korean border areas with South Korea, a powerful network of anti-tank fortifications was built, which, however, in conditions of practically guaranteed air dominance from the enemy, are unlikely to be a serious obstacle in the offensive.
However, the North Korean army has another trump card – special forces. It is the troops, not the units – in North Korea, special forces are a separate branch of the armed forces, which are assigned tasks of a strategic level.
Photo author, AFP
Photo caption,
Very well-equipped special forces soldiers took part in the parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2017
bringing them together into one branch of the armed forces. At the parade in Pyongyang on April 15, one could see these soldiers, who were noticeably distinguished by their good equipment and weapons. Their number, according to Western estimates, is about 100 thousand people.
The main task of these troops, military experts call sabotage and reconnaissance raids during the offensive operations of the North Korean army, but, according to Vasily Kashin, if the United States and South Korea want to occupy North Korean territory, special forces can make this task extremely difficult.
The expert said that, not counting on the technical superiority of the armed forces, the command relied on cheaper tactical and physical training of special forces soldiers, creating, in fact, light infantry.
“These are very well physically trained, as well as tactically and firingly trained fighters. This did not require spending scarce fuel. This is just training on the ground. They are well motivated, they have a large number of portable anti-aircraft missile systems, anti-tank systems , modern grenade launchers, “he said.
Photo author, AFP
Photo caption,
The North Korean army will have to fight in conditions of complete enemy air domination
In many parts of North Korea, an extensive network of extensive underground shelters has been built, connected by tunnels, in which light infantry can hide.Some shelters, according to Western intelligence, can even go under the demilitarized zone on the border.
Korea’s mountainous terrain is itself a challenging theater of war, and underground shelters, SWAT training and organized supply bases make it even more challenging.
“Good knowledge of this area, a prepared defense system, a large number of underground shelters. They have been preparing for this scenario for decades,” said Kashin.
Complete uncertainty
The most difficult circumstance for analyzing this military confrontation is that there are too many uncertainties in it.The DPRK remains one of the most closed states in the world; much about its military potential is known only by indirect indications.
Little is known about the DPRK’s missile and nuclear program – they are judged only by the statements of the official Pyongyang and the analysis of the tests carried out.
Photo author, AFP
Photo caption,
Possessing an army commensurate with the DPRK in size, the South Korean armed forces outnumber the northerners in technical equipment
Nothing is known about the technical state of military equipment – experts suspect that not all military aircraft can rise into the air, although they do not do this very often due to lack of fuel.
It is not known in what condition the fleet of North Korean armored vehicles is. Surely one can judge only about those tanks that passed in the parade in front of the country’s leadership.
There is no information about how ready to fight the Korean People’s Army itself.
Finally, the forces that are opposing the DPRK in the region – primarily the South Korean army and the American units stationed on the peninsula – are estimated to have a much greater military potential with a smaller number.
“Everyone loves to describe the North Korean army. It is the fourth largest in the world. However, the fact that the South Korean army is in the sixth is usually forgotten. As well as the fact that the South Korean military budget is 25 times larger than the North. the level of a military high-tech. Add to this air supremacy and supremacy at sea, “recalls Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The size of the North Korean army is estimated at about 1.2 million, plus about seven million in reserve.The South Korean armed forces have about 650,000 troops. In addition, more than 28,000 American troops are stationed in South Korea.
According to Konstantin Asmolov, another uncertainty is the lack of real combat experience in both Korean armies, but South Korea’s allies, the United States, have such experience.
“Americans should not be perceived as those who know how to fight only if they brought Coca-Cola. The experience of the Second Iraqi War shows that the Americans can and are able to fight,” Asmolov believes.
According to him, people in Pyongyang cannot but understand that, having started a war, they are likely to lose it – and therefore they are unlikely to want to attack first. On the other hand, the expert believes that the damage that North Korea can inflict on its southern neighbor has so far ruled out the possibility of starting a war against the DPRK.
“There is no optimal scenario here. Each side has its own set of trump cards, and the only question is how much each side will be able to play them,” he said.
In Alabino, near Moscow, the “World Guy” will be chosen today.News. Channel One
This title will be awarded to a participant in the military Olympiad, who will be the best not only on the obstacle course, but also in the creative competition. This year, the competition acquired international status – representatives of several countries gathered to test their strength.
Report by Mikhail Gilev.
The test site in Alabino near Moscow has been a test site for several years now. True, it is not military equipment that is tested, but people. In the smoke of burning tires, under the explosions of grenades and machine-gun bursts, the elite of the troops of Russia and the CIS countries are proving their right to be called “World guy”.This time, a girl can also become a world war, proving that the weaker sex can also be a universal soldier.
Anatoly Bashlakov, head of the Main Directorate for Internal Affairs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: “This is the one who today is probably the best prepared to perform his official and special duties. A professional soldier.”
The fire strip is one of the most difficult stages of the competition. You need to crawl under the barbed wire, meet the standard, putting on a chemical protection kit, and then, in full combat gear, weighing almost thirty kilograms, jump out of the destroyed building.
Tatyana Timoshenko, Warehouse Manager, Federal Directorate for Safe Storage and Destruction of Chemical Weapons: “The worst thing is to jump from the second floor, the psychological barrier is very big. When it seems very high, you have a very heavy bulletproof vest on.”
After such loads, the legs are not supported. But lying on the grass, the fighters admit – this is a trifle compared to a creative competition. Despite the most difficult stages of the competition, you can only see that the participants are really nervous behind the scenes, when they are holding a microphone instead of a machine gun.
The jury will evaluate how the World Guys dance, sing and even recite poetry. On stage, their main opponent is excitement. Because of him, some do not listen to their own voice. For others, partners are afraid to go on stage to perform tango.
Those who were able to overcome their fears were surprised by the mixture of genres, such as, for example, the Armenian team, which combined the waltz with martial art. The warriors of Belarus have learned a real cowboy dance. And the Kazakhs read the poem in 5 languages.
The creative competition is the last stage of the military Olympiad. True, the name of the winner will become known only tonight, at the final concert. He will be chosen from three prize-winners, who will once again be offered on stage to show their abilities in drill, knowledge of the charter and army traditions. The title of “World Guy” is not given just like that.
Jokey – terms of use
Jokey is one of the leading plastic packaging manufacturers and a trusted partner in world-class plastic packaging.Our 15 production sites employ nearly 1,800 people. Our main focus is the needs of our clients and the provision of the highest possible level of service, therefore we offer short solutions and the services of personal consultants.
Responsible attitude to quality and strict adherence to sanitary and hygienic standards is an integral part of our work. Therefore, all our factories are certified according to DIN EN 9001 and comply with the strict hygiene management rules that we introduced at the end of 1997 in accordance with the requirements of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) (DIN ISO 22000: 2005) and are constantly optimizing.In addition, we have implemented BRC Version 5 requirements at most of our manufacturing sites and became part of the non-profit organization Sedex (Supplier Ethical Data Exchange).
To become part of the Sedex database, we conducted an audit in accordance with the SMETA guidelines, which includes an assessment of the four areas listed below:
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The purpose of Sedex membership is to communicate social audit results to our clients and to reinforce or improve responsible and ethical business practices in the global supply chain.
Our quality assurance system implies not only obtaining the appropriate confirming certificates, but also constantly improving our own professionalism and intensive exchange of experience with clients. Therefore, we are open to individual audit of clients and use the knowledge gained in this process in our activities.
We officially declare that in the production of special types of products (for example, caps with nozzles for pouring out dosed portions of liquid, dispensers for wet wipes, paint corks), we partially cooperate with manufacturers of intermediate products. But they are included in our quality and hygiene management system and are subject to constant monitoring by our employees.
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For the production of our products, we use polypropylene (PP) thermoplastic plastic, which is more environmentally friendly than the traditionally used polyethylene (PE).In addition, the use of polypropylene instead of polyethylene provides a number of additional advantages:
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Recyclates are plastics that are chemically treated, mixed and re-granulated. Packaging made from recycled materials can give off a slight odor. It can appear, in particular, in cases where food is exposed to high temperatures or is stored in rooms with insufficient ventilation.Therefore, products manufactured in whole or in part with recycled materials should not be used as basic necessities or food packaging. Therefore, recycling and disposal of material is a separate internal process.
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Since we cannot guarantee the compatibility of the container with a specific loaded material, the customer is obliged to independently carry out the appropriate tests for safety and transportation before filling it with material containing aggressive components. Carrying out these tests is mandatory even if the customer cannot say with certainty whether certain substances are classified as aggressive. We are always ready to provide assistance upon request and to contact our raw material suppliers to obtain information on the compatibility of the container material with the components of the loaded product, if they do not comply with the requirement of EU Regulation 10/2011 “On materials and objects made of plastic intended for contact with food” …
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Observing the principle of non-depleting use of resources in the production of our products, we focus on one hundred percent use of materials and take this aspect into account already at the beginning of the product life cycle.
The materials left over from production are recycled and reused as recycled materials for the manufacture of packaging for non-food products.The products made in this way are optimally suited for filling with paints, detergents, etc. and allow sellers to show a responsible attitude towards the environment.
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Containers and transport packaging are sensitive to atmospheric influences, therefore they must be stored in a dry room at a constant temperature. Such conditions not only protect against moisture, but also effectively prevent the formation of condensation, which can damage, above all, the decorated plastic packaging. Therefore, these types of containers must be stored in dry rooms. In addition, despite the antistatic treatment, dust and dirt contamination cannot be ruled out, so it is very important to keep the storage area clean.
Damage caused by cutting the pallets with a knife increases the risk of breaking. Therefore, only special film knives should be used.
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Welcome to the amazing world of English !: Parents
A child’s lack of diligence does not necessarily indicate laziness or unwillingness to learn. People can avoid or postpone activities for a variety of other reasons.
For example, a child may feel confused but afraid to ask for help. He may lack specific skills to complete the assignment. Try to figure out what’s really behind the procrastination. This can be the first step towards overcoming it.
Adequately assess abilities, weaknesses, interests, preferences and character. Do not forget that modern children are very busy and are just learning to cope with dozens of tasks. Learning is an important part of personal growth and becoming, but breakthrough doesn’t happen overnight.
3. MAINTAIN HIM
Do this before your child starts a big task to get the kick out of it, or in the middle to keep things from getting stuck. Help visualize progress and anticipate the end result.
4. DO NOT IGNORE ALARM CALLS
These can be health problems, fatigue, and other indicators that show that the child cannot cope with stress and is objectively unable to meet your high demands.
Let him lead a healthy lifestyle: go in for sports, eat right, get enough sleep. Children need time for rest and reflection – overloading will not lead to anything good.
5. AVOID FIGHTING AND POWER BATTLES
Be consistent and patient, and avoid outbursts of anger in situations where he is deliberately playing for time. Talk to him and concentrate on what he says, without pressure or derogatory comments. Listen and listen again.
6. BE REALISTIC IN EXPECTATIONS
Don’t expect the impossible: the requirement to quickly master difficult material can lead to the fact that the child will panic and he will refuse to complete the task. Keep your instructions simple and straightforward.
7. PREPARE
Obtain the necessary resources, including learning games. Use timers, diaries, magnetic board. Provide a space for the child where he will not be disturbed by extraneous noises.
8. DEVELOP ITS CREATIVE BEGINNING
Drawing, dancing, acting will open up a second wind in him, of course, if they enter his life in the right proportions.
9. SHARE YOUR EXPERIENCE IN OVERCOMING DIFFICULTIES (INCLUDING LAZY)
This does not at all imply lecturing like “But here I am at your age …” Share stories from your childhood or biographies of people you admire. Emphasize that there will be ups and downs along the way.
10. SEEK OTHERS FOR HELP
Think about who, besides you, can help in bringing up such traits as responsibility and hard work in a child? Other family members, friends, teachers, sports coach? Use every opportunity to develop self-confidence.
11. RECOGNIZE YOUR CHILD WITH EFFECTIVE WORKING STRATEGIES
Show him how to organize and prioritize his activities. Small steps and short breaks reduce anxiety.Any task can be divided into several blocks by assigning a time interval to each.
12. DO NOT BE A STRICT CONTROLLER OF
Supporting and inspiring a child or controlling his every step is not the same thing. Let him take the initiative by encouraging responsibility and pride in his efforts. It will take time.
The dynamics of the learning process resembles a curve: as a rule, the ability to memorize new information is maximum after the first attempts to master the topic.Then the learning speed gradually decreases, and more repetitions are required to master the material. This shouldn’t scare you.
The phenomenon of the Belarusian statehood. What awaits Lukashenko’s system – Carnegie Moscow Center
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In 23 years of his presidency, Alexander Lukashenko was able to build one of the most consolidated and adaptive authoritarian regimes in the post-Soviet space, and possibly in the world. What is the basis of the Belarusian political model, how resistant is it to potential external pressure, what are the risks of its shaking and the prospects for evolution?
Key findings and forecasts
Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarianism rests on the deep Sovietness of public consciousness, the weakness of the institutions of young democracy, a state-controlled economy and a successfully found format of relations with Russia.The Belarusian president is aware of this and is trying to prevent any of these pillars from loosening as much as possible.
For 23 years a multi-level system of risk management of system stability has been built in Belarus. A well-considered selection of officials, the image of an irreplaceable president, and the prevention of the emergence of alternative centers of power, clans and oligarchy help to avoid a split in the nomenclature. The risk of protests is leveled by the mechanism of demotivating potential protesters, disrupting the planned and suppressing organized mass actions.
The Belarusian opposition is fragmented and weak. For the last decades it has existed in a mode of survival and, for objective and subjective reasons, has been degrading as a political alternative to power. There are no human or material resources for a serious struggle, and there is no support in society either. Power allows the existence of opposition: on the one hand, it is needed for its own legitimation, and on the other, for the release of a couple of discontent.
In recent years, the Belarusian authorities have significantly expanded the concept of state identity, which it broadcasts.In addition to paternalism, Sovietness and the cultivation of stability, the regime’s ideology now has an emphasis on independence, a balanced and multi-vector foreign policy, and a neutral peacekeeping role in the region. The first steps were taken to develop national identity, the so-called soft Belarusianization.
The majority of Belarusian society remains pro-Russian with a stable pro-European minority of 25–35%. However, support for Eurasian integration and Moscow’s actions in the international arena does not mean that Belarusians are ready to sacrifice sovereignty and share with the Russians the costs of the Kremlin’s foreign policy.In domestic politics, Lukashenka and his opponents each have 20-30% of their loyal electorate. The rest of society changes preferences depending on the economic situation.
The foreign policy of Minsk has become more pragmatic over the past 10 years. This is connected both with the need to balance in the conditions of constant conflicts between Moscow and its neighbors and the West, and with the reduction of Russian support. Enthusiasm for Eurasian integration has faded away, but there is an understanding that today there is no alternative to it.Relations with the EU are turning from a subject of bargaining for knocking out concessions from Moscow into an independent and significant vector of foreign policy.
- The Belarusian elites are still monolithic and rallied around the leader. However, in recent years, a group of more progressive officials of the highest echelon has emerged, mainly in economic departments. They are trying to convince Lukashenka to go to at least market reforms. Until the weakening of the regime, they will be loyal to the president, but already today the contours of the future split of the elites are beginning to be seen.
The Belarusian system has enough margin of safety for Lukashenka to grow old at his post. But the repetition and deepening of economic crises, together with the change of generations in the elites, will push him towards reforms. Lukashenka’s aging, economic turbulence and the emergence of big business autonomous from the government are likely to disrupt the monolithic nomenclature, which will initiate the transformation of the regime.
In Belarus, there are no internal or external prerequisites for repeating the Ukrainian scenario.The likelihood of a revolutionary change in power and a sharp change in foreign policy orientation is negligible. But even if we admit the possibility of such a development of events, it is unlikely to lead to military aggression on the part of Moscow. In order to keep Belarus in the Russian orbit, it is more profitable for the Kremlin to use economic methods of influence: as more effective, less costly and less risky.
Introduction
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his regime is a success story in the world of autocrats.His innate political instinct helped him not only to be in the right place at the right time, but also to build – without having any special natural or strategic resources – a comfortable format of relations with his own people and external forces.
In 23 years Lukashenko was able to create one of the most consolidated and adaptive authoritarian regimes in the post-Soviet space, and possibly in the world. Let’s try to analyze the phenomenon of the Belarusian statehood, its weak and strong points.Let’s try to figure out what the Belarusian political model is based on, how resistant it is to potential external pressure, what are the risks of its shaking and the prospects for evolution.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has changed the view of Western media on Eastern Europe. If earlier the countries of this region were considered by the bloc as “following the European path of reforms – frozen in authoritarianism”, now a new popular perspective has been added – “the next victims of the Kremlin”. Belarus was no exception, relations with which Russia in recent years have become more complicated in many areas.
Belarus is the most Russified republic of the former USSR, a military ally of Russia, tied to it by half a dozen integration associations and almost complete resource dependence. 90% of Belarusians regularly or occasionally watch news on Russian TV 1 . In the eyes of the West, Belarus looks vulnerable to Russian expansion. In communicating with Western journalists, it is almost impossible to avoid the question of when and how the forceful incorporation of Belarus into the Russian Federation will take place.This question also needs an answer.
Mode Consolidation
The coming to power in Belarus in 1994 of a politician of such a psychological type and such ideological views as Alexander Lukashenko was not accidental. The first post-Soviet years of sluggish market reforms, low living standards, growing corruption and crime, weak national identity and lack of democratic traditions, nostalgia of the majority of the population for the stable years of the USSR, dominance of pro-Russian sentiments in society, fatigue from the former party nomenklatura, which continued to rule the already independent republic – all this formed a request for a young and energetic populist who could put things in order with a strong hand, restore ties with Russia and jail all the swindlers in power.
The charisma of the first president of Belarus, the style and legitimacy of his rule were and in many respects remain popular. The institutions of formal democracy weighed on Lukashenka. The president almost immediately came into conflict with parliament and the constitutional court. It took Lukashenka two years to establish and consolidate his personal power regime.
The 1996 constitutional referendum and accompanying political decisions put the executive and judicial authorities, the Central Election Commission (CEC), local executive committees, trade unions, security and law enforcement agencies, all TV channels and major newspapers of the country under the control of Alexander Lukashenko.Parliament lost its powers and lost its opposition. The decrees of the president turned out to be higher than the laws.
The state quickly consolidated its dominant position in the economy and rolled back the privatization that had begun earlier. Influential law enforcement and control authorities, an abundance of state regulation, dependent courts and the ease with which it was possible to nationalize any property, provided the authorities with the political loyalty of business.
In 2004, after a new constitutional referendum, Alexander Lukashenko gained access to the presidency for life.In Belarus, an effective vertical of power has been built in its own way, in which the president makes all key personnel and economic decisions, up to the removal and appointment of heads of cities and regions, judges of lower courts and directors of large factories. The rotation of the elites is not ensured by the ruling party, since there is no such party in Belarus at all. To be promoted to top leadership positions, candidates need personal loyalty, a shared vision with the president, and managerial experience that Lukashenka sees fit for a particular position.
The consolidation of the regime was accompanied by the marginalization of the opposition and a gradual narrowing of the field of activity of civil society and non-state media. This was the case until 2008, then the “screws” were periodically loosened when it was necessary for geopolitical maneuvering and rapprochement with the West. But it was only the behavior of the authorities that changed. The laws and institutions of authoritarianism remained intact or tightened, giving the state the opportunity at any time to quickly return to the required degree of repressiveness.
The economic model built by Lukashenka, or rather preserved by him since the times of the USSR, is an abundance of state regulation, state monopolies and a high level of income redistribution. Unprofitable state-owned enterprises are supported through a system of direct subsidies, concessional loans and cross-subsidies – electricity tariffs, for example, for them can be several times lower than for private businesses. Until recently, the state produced about 60% of the country’s GDP and provided jobs for about the same share of the employed population.With the crisis of 2015–2016, this share decreased, according to the IMF 2 , to 50%.
The same crisis affected some elements of the welfare state: the retirement age was raised, moderate unemployment was allowed – but the system is still aimed at smoothing the gap between rich and poor. According to the Gini index, which records social stratification, Belarus traditionally looks better than most countries in the region 3 .
Special relations between Minsk and Moscow have become one of the pillars of Belarusian authoritarianism.Skillfully playing on Russian imperial ambitions, Moscow’s unwillingness to lose an ally and risk political stability in Belarus, which is important from the point of view of hydrocarbon supplies to Europe, Lukashenko was able to obtain from Moscow, albeit not uninterrupted, but generally stable in the long term economic and political support.
Risk management
Lukashenka did not confine himself to establishing institutional control over the country. Partly deliberately, partly following his political instincts, the Belarusian president created a kind of self-defense system for authoritarianism – a variety of mechanisms to quickly stop potential risks to the stability of the system.There are three such basic risks for the Lukashenka regime: mass protests, a split or conspiracy of the elites, and external pressure. Let’s consider each in detail.
Let’s start with the fact that a significant part of Belarusians are a priori excluded from the sphere of political activity due to the fact that the state sector dominates in the economy. Thanks to the widely used contract system, in which the employer is not obliged to renew the labor contract after its, usually one-year, term, the authorities have serious leverage over the majority of the employed population.Likewise, students, a potential asset of the disaffected part of society, are afraid of being expelled from universities, most of which are also state-owned.
The government seeks to minimize protests. To hold any mass event in Belarus, you must obtain permission from the local authorities. Their “menu” of reasons for refusal is so large that a suitable reason can be found literally for any occasion.
Gathering thousands of people for an unauthorized protest is difficult not only because its political prospects are vague – there is no resource for a physical fight against the power machine of the state, but also because potential protesters clearly understand what consequences await them: there has always been and remains the risk of getting administrative arrest and being detained by force.The authorities deliberately did not deviate from this rule until the thaw of August 2015 – February 2017, when they were only fined for participating in unauthorized actions. After a year and a half of liberalization of the regime began to bear fruit and the fear of taking action against the decree “on parasitism” in the regions began to fade away, the security officials were given the command to resume their usual practice.
In anticipation of possible mass actions, the security forces resort to preventive detentions: opposition leaders and activists are not allowed to the place of the action under various pretexts – checking documents, which drags on for several hours, punching through the database of the license plates of a car that allegedly can be stolen, or simple administrative detention followed by charges of petty hooliganism (for example, “swearing obscenely in the street,” and the witnesses were policemen).
The Belarusian authorities are flexible, they know how to work with public discontent not only with the methods of the stick, but also the carrot. Gingerbread, of course, is not used in the case of opposition protests such as actions against electoral fraud – here the dissatisfied are treated simply as enemies of the system. If, however, the authorities, and personally Alexander Lukashenko, feel that widespread discontent is behind the protest, they can make partial concessions to the bulk of the protesters. At the same time, the leaders of the protest are still punished, as if cutting them off from the majority of the dissatisfied and sending this majority a signal that there is a framework that should not be exceeded.
In 2011, motorists, outraged by a sharp increase in gasoline prices, blocked the central avenue of Minsk, simulating car breakdowns. Several people were detained and fined. But on the same day, the president personally cut fuel prices 4 . They came to the new price anyway, but they raised it gradually, not giving the dissatisfied a new reason for self-organization – you won’t protest because of the rise in prices by 1%, even if every couple of weeks.
Six months later, workers at the Granit mine left the official union en masse and applied to join an independent union, while protesting against wage delays.The leader of this indignation and the head of the new trade union were fired, the rest were paid their salaries, raising it one and a half times 5 .
The scheme also works throughout the country – the last protests of “non-parasites” in the spring of 2017 were suppressed quite harshly, with hundreds of detentions and arrests. But at the same time, Lukashenka conceded, suspending the scandalous decree for a year and promising to exclude the most odious provisions from it 6 .
At the same time, the propaganda efforts of the authorities are aimed at discrediting the protest as such and exploiting the fear of social upheaval historically inherent in Belarusians.The national anthem begins with the words “We, Belarusians, are peaceful people”. The same image is cultivated by the state media machine, which draws on examples of violent revolutions abroad and the wars and chaos that followed.
A serious risk for any authoritarian, and especially personalist, regime comes from the elites – it can be discontent, conspiracy, coup or split. Two “vaccinations” that Lukashenka makes to prevent such a development of events are personnel policy and the cultivation of the idea of no alternative to power.
The Belarusian president, as a rule, does not appoint to important posts, especially to the post of head of government, charismatic, ambitious, too proactive and publicly active people. The officials themselves, already in high positions, are aware of this and try not to stand out, not to be public, not to give out many interviews, to hide their families from journalists.
The purpose of such a personnel policy is to ensure that neither the elites themselves, nor the society have the feeling that someone is consistently occupying the No. 2 place in the vertical of power.In Belarus, there is not and should not appear a clear successor or favorite in the eyes of the elites.
Of the three sons of Alexander Lukashenko, the youngest, Nikolai, is not yet suitable for the role of a successor due to his very young age. Average, Dmitry, is far from politics. The eldest son, Victor, has the most succession features. He is the assistant to the president for national security, in fact – the “overseer” of the security forces. He oversees the work of one of them, the Operational Analytical Center (OAC), and is a member of the country’s security council.
But even this is not enough to consolidate a serious part of the nomenklatura around Viktor Lukashenko. Belarus is not Central Asia, there are no monarchic traditions of succession to the throne. Belonging to the Lukashenka family does not add legitimacy either in the eyes of the people or in the eyes of the elites. In all public speeches on this topic, the president emphasizes that his children do not want their father’s fate for themselves, and he himself does not see them as his successors. Today this position looks sincere.
There are several power structures in Belarus: the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, the Security Council, the Investigative Committee, the Prosecutor’s Office, the OAC and the Ministry of Defense.They mutually balance each other, and sometimes compete with each other. The presidential security service stands apart, whose powers are hardly limited by anything at all.
In order to prevent the formation of clans among the security forces or the fact that employees of any of the departments show more loyalty to their boss than to the president, Lukashenka regularly reshuffles personnel. If Lukashenka suspects that this or that security official is no longer as loyal to him as before, he immediately transfers him to a position deprived of power, or sends him to retire.
To prevent officials from having illusions that there are untouchables, Lukashenka keeps them in good shape by regularly launching criminal cases, usually related to corruption. The rare cases of the transition of prominent officials to the opposition, which took place 10-15 years ago, consistently ended in criminal prosecution – so that the rest were discouraged. To betray the trust of the president in this system is the main sin.
Finally, there are external risks. The high degree of dependence of the Belarusian economy on the Russian Federation, the wide coverage of the population of Belarus by the Russian media and the military integration of the two countries indicate that Moscow has a certain resource of influence on Belarusian domestic policy.
Taking this into account, from the first years of his rule, Lukashenko has positioned himself in the eyes of the Kremlin as such an uncontested guarantor of Belarusian-Russian friendship that each of the three successive presidents of the Russian Federation, reflecting in moments of disputes whether to feed or not feed Minsk, in the end always chose the first option … From the point of view of the Russian leadership, the costs in this case always turn out to be less than the costs of keeping Belarus in its orbit if, after the reduction of Russian support, internal shocks occur in it and the power changes uncontrollably.
In order to prevent Russia from suddenly having the idea of changing the power in Belarus itself, there is only a pro-European opposition in the country and the emergence of a pro-Russian one is not allowed. Any attempts to create such structures are suppressed by the special services. It is impossible for Moscow to have a plan “B” – Lukashenka should retain the monopoly on the pro-Russian vector in Belarusian politics. Officials, in respect of whom there are suspicions of being too close with Moscow, will not be admitted to important posts, if important posts can even be spoken of in Belarusian conditions.
Marginalization of the alternative
Despite the promoted brand of “the last dictatorship of Europe”, several opposition parties and dozens of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that are critical of the government function legally in Belarus. Power allows them to exist due to the fact that they perform the following three functions: they legitimize the current political system, give society a channel for the release of discontent, and allow them to keep the active of the disaffected in plain sight without pushing them underground.
The entire classic spectrum of European politics is represented in the Belarusian opposition: from nationalists and Christian Democrats to liberal-market, Greens and Social Democrats. There is even a leftist party, Fair World, made up of former communists who did not want to support Lukashenka 20 years ago. And although by law these parties must have at least 1,000 members, today they have at best hundreds, some have only dozens of activists. The rest are on the list formally.
In addition to parties, there are political campaigns and movements, which are usually created for a specific candidate before the presidential elections. Their ideology is more blurred: “for all the good, against all the bad.” Some of them have been living in politics for as long as their leader, some are experiencing him.
All these structures are in opposition to Alexander Lukashenko along four lines of ideological split: democracy / authoritarianism, rapprochement with the EU / integration with Russia, cultivation of Belarusian identity / rejection of it, market economy / command system.Each party chooses its own accent. The Just World party, which considers the president’s course to be insufficiently socially oriented, does not insist on rapprochement with the EU. But this party is less visible and active than the pro-European forces.
The total rating of support for formal opposition structures, even during periods of falling power ratings, did not exceed 20% 7 . The main reason is the disappointment of even the dissatisfied part of the Belarusian society in the opposition’s ability to unite and present a consolidated program for the country’s development in case the power suddenly falls into their hands.Constant internal disputes and splits in the camp of opponents of the authorities only support this negative image.
In 2001, at the second presidential election, a single opposition candidate, though not charismatic, was put up against Lukashenka – trade union leader Vladimir Goncharik. In 2006, there were already two democratic candidates – the “single” Alyaksandr Milinkevich and Alyaksandr Kazulin, supported by those who were not satisfied with Milinkevich. In 2010, there were nine alternative candidates to Lukashenka.The authorities gladly registered all of them, despite great doubts that at least three of them collected the 100 thousand signatures necessary for the nomination. In 2015, there was only one democratic candidate – Tatyana Korotkevich, but absolutely the rest of the opposition ostracized her for lack of harshness towards the authorities.
There are two reasons for this disunity. First, there is a serious shortage of personnel and a shortage of new faces in the Belarusian opposition. Many leaders have led their parties as long as Lukashenka has been ruling the country.They hold on to their places – being in opposition to the authorities has become, though risky, but a profession. There are no mechanisms for self-purification of the leadership of opposition structures: just as the government loses feedback with society in the absence of competitive elections, the opposition also loses it. All failures are attributed to the actions of the regime.
Secondly, the opposition has no incentive to unite, because even a broad coalition would not lead to success in elections, where votes are considered by people selected by the authorities, preventing observers from controlling the process.Due to many years of unsuccessful struggle and lack of hope for victory in the foreseeable future, opposition politicians simply do not see the point of sacrificing their leadership positions in small structures for the sake of playing second fiddle in a coalition with incomprehensible goals.
But even such a weak opposition has an important institutional potential. Any, even initially apolitical, protest that has arisen and will continue to arise in the Belarusian society needs political representation and coordination.The only ones who have at least some organizational experience, who can even banally bring megaphones to the rally, are representatives of the opposition parties. For example, in the absence of other spokesmen for popular discontent, the opposition was able to quickly spearhead the recent social protests against the “parasitism” decree across Belarus.
Non-state media, protest actions and elections, when the authorities are obliged to give minimum access to air to all candidates, remain the only channels of communication between the opposition and the people.This is not enough to break the apathy and dispel the mistrust of the mass voter.
The majority of Belarusians do not regard power as something that can change from their efforts, but rather perceive it as a weather phenomenon. When it’s warm outside, people are happy; when it rains, they are unhappy. They can even swear in their hearts if the downpour pours several days in a row. But uniting in an anti-rain party or going out into the streets to protest against snowfall is not considered by the majority to be a meaningful waste of time and effort.
Metamorphoses of Belarusian ideology
Like any politician, Lukashenka, when he came to power, had his own vision of Belarus, his own version of the Belarusian identity. He learned a lot from life experience – childhood in the Soviet countryside, managing a collective farm and political struggle with the then capital’s nomenklatura.
The basis of Lukashenko’s ideology is the preservation and development of the best aspects of the Soviet past in his understanding. Many people called Belarus the Soviet republic of the USSR itself; it was a kind of industrial hub of the Soviet Union.At the All-Union referendum in March 1991, 83% of Belarusians voted for the preservation of the USSR 8 . The project of building a national state, proposed by nationalists and democrats in the early 1990s, was alien not only to Lukashenka, but, admittedly, to most of the Belarusian society.
The soil was fertile not only for the coming to power of Lukashenka with his views, but also for the first steps to re-Sovietize Belarus. A year after taking office, the first Belarusian president held a referendum and returned to the country slightly modified Soviet symbols, gave the Russian language the status of the state language and proclaimed a course towards integration with Russia.
A few years later, subbotniks, the cult of victory in the Great Patriotic War, an analogue of the Komsomol – the Belarusian Republican Youth Union, the celebration of November 7, deputies for ideology at large enterprises and courses on this very “ideology of the Belarusian state” in universities returned to the country.
However, it was not possible to clearly formulate the ideology. At the lectures, students were read the latest history of the country and an overview of world ideologies. Lukashenko himself admitted the failure of this venture in the 2010s, and at the end of 2016 the ideological vertical began to be reduced, starting with ideologue No. 1 – the deputy head of the presidential administration.
Over time, the aspects of ideology associated with the country’s identity have also changed. As the people and elites got used to living in a separate state, quarrels with Russia grew more and more and enthusiasm for post-Soviet integration faded, and the emphasis shifted in the official discourse.
Increasingly and more and more sincerely, the authorities began to speak of sovereignty as the highest value. In 2015, the phrase “independent Belarus” first appeared in Lukashenka’s main pre-election slogan.Integration with Russia ceased to be a guiding star and was now presented as an economic inevitability. The authorities promise to follow the path of integration only as long as it does not threaten the sovereignty of Belarus. Lukashenka himself put it this way: we live with Russia in the same house, but in separate apartments 9 .
An international touch to this image was supposed to add the idea of Belarus as a kind of Eastern European Switzerland, a neutral platform for resolving regional conflicts, primarily Ukrainian.Hence the unwillingness to take any side in the quarrels between Russia and the outside world, be it with Washington, Kiev or Ankara. In this way Minsk is trying to neutralize the fact that it is with Russia in a Union State and in one military bloc – the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
The image of a conductor of peace in the region ideologically feeds the internal narrative that the main thing for Belarus is stability. This simple rhetorical trick is characteristic of many authoritarian regimes: they say, we do not infringe on human rights and limit the opposition, but we protect the peace of citizens and stability in the country.But in Belarus, stability has become a political meme. The unconditional supporters of the authorities, who in the USSR would be roughly called “scoops”, are called “stabils” in Belarus.
The ideological design of domestic politics is gradually evolving. After the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the authorities began to introduce certain elements of a nationally oriented agenda. A soft Belarusianization began in the country – a very gradual expansion of the sphere of using the Belarusian language, popularization of the pre-Soviet history of Belarus and national symbols.
Lukashenko himself spoke in the Belarusian language for the first time, the number of hours of studying it was increased in schools. The authorities began to treat national symbols with less aggressiveness (white-red-white flag and the coat of arms “Pursuit”), a fashion for embroidered shirts began in the country, the ornament from them migrated to the uniform of the football team. This process is unstable, the authorities do not show much enthusiasm here, but they no longer interfere with it.
Quite the opposite: the security forces temporarily stopped focusing only on the pro-Western “fifth column”.Several people were fined for insulting the Belarusian language on social networks. Three authors of the Russian agency Regnum, who sharply criticized Belarusization and the sovereignty of Belarus as such, were arrested for inciting ethnic hatred.
At the same time, the authorities do not renounce the Soviet ideological heritage. The president’s nostalgia for his own youth has not gone anywhere. Therefore, he annually goes to a subbotnik with builders and congratulates the country on the anniversary of the October Revolution, interpreting it as a prerequisite for the creation of the BSSR – the forerunner of today’s independence.Participation in Soviet rituals is not a manifestation of ideological enthusiasm, but something like a tribute to political traditions.
Partly unwillingness to say goodbye to the Soviet past explains the psychological unwillingness of Lukashenko and part of the elite to privatize large but ineffective industrial giants – MAZ, BelAZ, Minsk Tractor Plant, etc. The President calls these enterprises Belarusian brands. Although in fact, many of them have long been a symbol of chronic unprofitability and work for a warehouse.
Despite the fact that power has been concentrated in the hands of Lukashenka for 23 years, there is no personality cult in the country in the usual Soviet or modern Central Asian sense. There are no streets named after Lukashenka, his busts or monuments, portraits on money or billboards, even during elections. The personalism of Belarusian authoritarianism manifests itself in little things – in the article of the Criminal Code for insulting the president, in the traditional address “respected Alexander Grigorievich” from officials and in the presence of a room-museum of Lukashenko in the Mogilev university where he studied.
If the image of Lukashenka is cultivated by propaganda, then not as a quasi-deity in the traditions of oriental despotism, but as the most experienced and reliable leader who led the country out of the chaos of the 90s. This is a functional, not a personal cult. This is partly why the scenario of the transfer of power to the sons of the president in Belarus is less likely than it might seem to an outside observer.
One and Divided People
Public opinion in Belarus has been poorly researched. Conducting polls on political topics is strictly regulated and in fact monopolized by the state.The research results of the near-government structures are either not published, or look like a product of propaganda, duplicating the data of the CEC in the elections. Only one non-governmental center, IISEPS (partner of the Levada Center), conducted quarterly polls on socio-political topics from 1992 until recently 10 .
The Belarusian society is geographically homogeneous. The dominance of Orthodoxy in the east and central part of the country and a larger percentage of Catholics in the west of Belarus do not affect the main sociological indicators.The West and the East of the country as a whole have the same view of Russia, Europe, Lukashenka and the opposition, the need for reforms, etc.
First, about the general numbers 11 . Answering the harshly posed question “either-or”, that is, choosing between unification with Russia and accession to the EU, from 40 to 50% of Belarusians, depending on the year of study, choose Russia. From 25 to 35% – the European Union. These figures are explained not only by propaganda or the historical closeness of the Russian and Belarusian peoples, but also by the rather pragmatic understanding that the Belarusian economy depends on the Russian one, and there is no intelligible alternative proposal from Brussels.
Only after the Belarusian-Russian information war of 2009–2010 and the warming of relations with the West that coincided with it in time, pro-European sentiments were either on a par with pro-Russian (in the region of 40–45%), or even in some months pulled ahead. This period was short, but it showed that the geopolitical orientation of the Belarusians depends on the information vector. The conflict in Ukraine and the propaganda that accompanied it returned a twofold advantage to pro-Russian sentiments, but by mid-2016 the schedules began to converge again.
If, however, the question is posed differently and the respondents are given a choice between (1) the status quo and accession to the Russian Federation, or (2) the status quo and accession to the EU, in both cases the preservation of today’s sovereignty wins with the same almost twofold advantage – 50% against 25-30%, while the remaining 20-25% refused to vote in this imaginary referendum. This means that in a real referendum, the “sovereignty fraction” would have won more than 65%. Belarusians got used to independence and began to value it.
This is evidenced by the polls on the subject of returning to the USSR. In the 1990s, those nostalgic for the Big Country were in the majority, but since 1999 the curve of opponents of return has gone up. Today there are about 60% of them – with 25-30% of supporters of a rollback to the past.
At the same time, the sympathies of Belarusians towards Eurasian integration remain stable – it is supported by about 60–65% 12 . The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is not perceived as a threat to the country’s independence due to the official discourse, according to which unification with Russia cannot go from economic to political.
These public sentiments are ideally suited for the new foreign policy of Minsk – neutrality and non-interference in conflicts in which the neighbors of Belarus, primarily Russia, participate.
With 55–65% of the supporters of the Russian position in the Ukrainian conflict (“Crimea is ours,” “a coup d’etat took place in Kiev,” “there is a civil war in Ukraine”), three quarters of Belarusians do not approve of the participation of fellow citizens in battles from any side and oppose the provision of Belarusian territory to the Russian authorities, if they want to send troops to Ukraine from the north 13 .
65% do not agree to join Moscow’s food sanctions against the West. At the end of 2015 – the first half of 2016, during the conflict between Russia and Turkey over a downed bomber, only every sixth Belarusian supported the full support of Belarus for Russian sanctions against Turkey. More than 50%, despite the popularity of Russian television, said that Minsk does not need to interfere in this dispute at all 14 . Similar results were obtained with regard to the deployment of a Russian airbase in Belarus: 43% were against, 22% were in favor, the rest were indifferent.
Russian propaganda successfully worked in the issue of forming sympathies for the Russian Federation, but was unable to mobilize Belarusians to defend Russian interests. The reason is that over the years of independence, Belarusians have learned to separate them from their own. They say: brothers-Russians, we are morally with you, but we are not going to quarrel with someone or incur costs because of your conflicts.
On domestic policy issues, public opinion is quite opportunistic. Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the democratic opposition have approximately the same core of supporters – 20-25% each, who are convinced of their positions.Sociologists called about half of the population an “electoral swamp” – they rarely come to the opposition camp, but during periods of economic downturn, they leave Lukashenka as well.
By the way, it was the publication of data that the president’s electoral rating once again dropped below 30% that led to the closure of IISEPS in the summer of 2016. Since then, the GDP of Belarus has only been falling and a wave of economic protests has passed through the country, which means that today more than a quarter of Belarusians are hardly ready to vote for Lukashenka.
Support for Lukashenka is higher among women, they are more impressed by his patriarchal style and emphasis on stability. There are more presidential supporters among the less educated segments of the population and in rural areas. However, everywhere in the world populist rhetoric finds a greater response in these groups of society than in urban dwellers.
According to various polls, 65–85% of Belarusians want reforms 15 . The question is what they mean by these reforms. And here, rare studies show that about half of this majority wants to increase the state’s share in the economy, and not decrease it, as all external creditors recommend to Belarus – from the IMF to its Eurasian counterpart, the EFSD.
This leftism is a product of many years of state paternalism. Here Lukashenka fell into the trap of his own ideology. Belarusians are accustomed not only to an independent state, but also to the fact that only the authorities can take care of them. The forced curtailment of this habitual concern leads to popular discontent, which, in turn, lowers the authorities’ already low readiness for market reforms.
Crystallization of pragmatism
The foreign policy of Minsk, like the Belarusian public opinion, went through the process of emancipation.The diplomacy of Belarus in the late 1990s differs from that of today, like a disobedient first-grader in a rural school from a reserved graduate of a capital university.
If someone thinks that Lukashenka is emotional today in relations with other countries, this observer should remember how the president behaved 20 years ago. Then the head of Belarus did not restrain himself at all either in domestic or foreign policy. For example, in 1998, against the background of tensions in relations with the EU and the US and the exclusion of the Belarusian delegation from PACE, Western ambassadors were simply evicted from their residences under the pretext of repairing the sewerage system.The scandal then reached the point of recalling diplomats from Minsk.
In the same year, Belarus, the only one from all of Europe, joined the anti-Western Non-Aligned Movement. Lukashenko personally traveled to Belgrade to support Slobodan Milosevic during the NATO bombing of Serbia, and then fiercely stood up for Saddam Hussein. In those years, the Belarusian president was at the forefront of resistance to world imperialism.
All this was possible while the rear of Minsk was covered. But then the pragmatist Vladimir Putin came to power in Russia.Lukashenko’s mantras about the common enemy and the Slavic brotherhood acted on him differently than on Yeltsin. The Kremlin began to issue invoices. Putin’s expression about “separating flies from cutlets” became a common noun – it was just about the vague position of Belarus on its readiness to integrate with Russia. By the second half of the 2000s, the energy disputes between Minsk and Moscow became almost annual.
In the second half of the 2000s, Belarusian diplomacy began to mature and experiment because of the turbulence that arose in relations with the Russian Federation.At the end of 2006, a serious gas crisis began, and in 2007 Moscow imposed duties on oil supplies to Belarus.
In 2008, Lukashenko turned his face to the West for the first time, Minsk was admitted to the Eastern Partnership program of the European Union. The reason for flirting with the EU was the Russian-Georgian war: Moscow showed that tanks can become an argument in a dispute with neighbors. Lukashenka released political prisoners, weakened control over the media and the opposition. The European Union, for its part, lifted sanctions on Belarus, and after a ten-year hiatus, heads of European states and foreign ministers began to regularly visit Minsk.
The peak of the conflict with Moscow was the broadcast of the series “The Godfather” on NTV. But on the eve of his re-election, Lukashenko reached an agreement with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on duty-free oil supplies in exchange for signatures under the agreements on the Customs Union with Moscow and Astana.
The rear was again covered, and when two years of internal liberalization bore fruit in the form of a 40,000-strong protest on the day of the presidential election, Lukashenka did not think much about the western vector. The crackdown on the demonstration and the prosecution of its leaders threw relations with the West back, but not forever.
The first detente in relations with the EU and the US arose as a reaction to Russia’s behavior and was a subject of bargaining in negotiations with it. Obviously, such a model is a priori unstable, because the enthusiasm with which Minsk strove for friendship with the West depended on the tension in relations with Moscow. In addition, both Brussels and Minsk harbored many illusions about each other: Europe believed that Belarus could democratize through rapprochement with the EU, and Lukashenko thought that the West would at least partially compensate for the losses from the quarrel with Moscow.Everyone was wrong.
In 2015, Minsk began a new rapprochement with the West, this time more meaningful, unhurried and with a real agenda: from simplifying the visa regime and dialogue on human rights to the arrival of European banks in Belarus and a twofold increase in EU technical assistance. Minsk, of course, would like to see financial issues discussed more often, and Brussels does not miss the opportunity to remind about human rights. But all this no longer interferes with the intensive dialogue.
The trigger of the second rapprochement was again the conflict between Russia and its neighbor, this time with Ukraine.The notion that it is not profitable to orientate itself – both economically and politically – only to Moscow has strengthened. In private conversations, Belarusian diplomats admitted that immediately after the annexation of Crimea, it was simply difficult to talk to their Russian counterparts. They, like Belarusians 15 years ago, felt themselves in a besieged fortress, at the forefront of the struggle against the “collective Western evil.” Only Minsk no longer needs this fight. On the contrary, he seeks to form a full-fledged western vector of foreign policy.
Since then, Belarus has diplomatically distances itself from Russia in every dispute with the outside world.
Minsk recognizes the annexation of Crimea only de facto, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs recommends that Belarusian companies continue to print maps and atlases with Crimea as part of Ukraine 16 . At every opportunity, diplomats emphasize that they stand for the integrity of Ukraine, without specifying, however, in what boundaries, so as not to anger Moscow.
Minsk emphatically calls military activity and the expansion of NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe “a military challenge, but not a threat.”When Turkey shoots down a Russian bomber, for Moscow it is a “stab in the back”, and Minsk calls on both sides – “brotherly Russia and friendly Turkey” – to restrain and de-escalate 17 . In Russia, they talk about the American attack by “tomahawks” on the Syrian airbase as an aggression by Washington, and in the corresponding statement of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, the US does not even appear 18 .
Minsk is no longer as enthusiastic about integration in the post-Soviet space as it used to be.Initially, Alexander Lukashenko assumed that a new format of multilateral negotiations would emerge within the framework of the Eurasian Union, thanks to which the need to regularly negotiate with Russia on sensitive economic issues – gas, oil, access of Belarusian goods to the Russian market – would disappear. In other words, this format will guarantee a certain set of preferences.
But as a result, the unification of oil and gas markets was postponed to 2025, conflicts still have to be resolved one-on-one with the Kremlin.It also did not work with uninterrupted access to the Russian market. First, it sank heavily due to the 2015–2016 crisis. Secondly, Belarusian manufacturers were often excluded from import substitution programs, considering them foreign. And thirdly, as soon as relations between Minsk and Moscow escalate, the Rosselkhoznadzor reports on spoiled Belarusian milk or meat.
Eurasian integration became another disappointment for Lukashenka. But there is no alternative, just as there is no way to get out, so Minsk is trying to get at least something out of the situation.The tool, which, according to the idea, was supposed to formalize the friendship, is used for blackmail. To push Moscow to make concessions in the latest oil and gas dispute, Lukashenko boycotted the EAEU summit, delayed the signing of the Customs Code and threatened to withdraw his representatives from the Union’s structures.
Although so far it has not been successful, but Belarus continues to insist on the need for integration of integrations – the rapprochement of the EAEU with the European Union. It does this not only in order to strengthen its new image of a regional peacemaker, but also in an attempt not to isolate itself, at least at the level of rhetoric, within the stuffy framework of a crude Eurasian structure.
Over the past 10 years, Belarusian foreign policy has got rid of nervousness, emotions and ideological burden, has become more pragmatic and calculating. And not only because of the need to balance in the face of constant conflicts between Moscow and its neighbors and the West, but also because of the sensitive reduction in Russian support.
The fact is that over the years of disputes with Minsk, many illusions have been shed in Moscow. Conflicts are still resolved according to the old scheme: the appearance of problems at the lower level, when they accumulate – transferring the dispute to the presidential level, emotional bargaining, sometimes turning into blackmail with an increase in interest rates, a meeting between Lukashenko and Putin, a certain compromise.But over time, Russia, as a strong side, began to drag out the resolution of disputes longer and longer, which allows it to make smaller concessions in the end.
The last oil and gas dispute, for example, lasted almost a year and ended only in the spring of 2017. At the same time, since the fall of 2016, Minsk periodically reported on the compromise reached, but everything fell apart again and again. As a result, Belarus suffered huge losses from the shortage of oil during the dispute, was forced to recognize and pay off the gas debt. Russia only restored the previous volumes of oil supplies and gave a discount on gas less than 20%.
The Russian leadership has come to terms with the idea that Lukashenka is not ready to sacrifice the sovereignty of his country. Yes, it is still important for the Kremlin to keep Belarus in its orbit both for its image and from a military point of view, as well as for the stable transit of hydrocarbons to Europe. But the task that the Kremlin sets itself has changed: earlier it consisted in buying Lukashenka’s loyalty and maintaining the well-being of his system, now – in preventing its spontaneous collapse. And on this you can not spend much money.
Monolith with outlines of future cracks
In recent years, not only the foreign and domestic policy of Belarus has changed, but also its nomenclature. Officials are consolidating around the president and consider him the uncontested guarantor of their posts and stability in the country. But despite the strict requirements for the degree of loyalty to the president – Lukashenko often calls officials “sovereigns” – in recent years there has been a slight backlash, which allows one to publicly express his position, which does not correspond to the party line.
Lukashenka has long relied on the old nomenclature, his disciplined peers or older people. But it turned out that they are incapable of successful management and cannot object to the president. Ineffective, but ideologically close officials can be found in the government in the well-fed years of uninterrupted Russian subsidies and a pleasant conjuncture of oil prices. And when the well-fed years are over, you have to attract professionals.
After a series of devaluations of the Belarusian ruble in 2009, 2011 and at the end of 2014, provoked by both external factors and the mistakes of the authorities, key positions in the National Bank, the economic wing of the government and the presidential administration were occupied by relatively young technocrats with market views.One of them, presidential aide Kirill Rudy, wrote books and articles publicly criticizing the Belarusian economic model. In fact, he was the voice of the reformers until he was transferred to the post of ambassador to China. However, this did not stop him. Already in diplomatic status, he arrived in Minsk and spoke at a non-state expert forum, where he again criticized the forceful pressure on business and the entire economic model in general and urged his colleagues not to be afraid to do the same 19 .
The rest of the “liberals” in the government act differently – they try to non-publicly convince Lukashenka to go to the market reforms necessary for the country or to implement certain measures quietly, without attracting attention.Through the efforts of these officials, a restrained monetary policy has been pursued in Belarus since 2015, the ruble exchange rate has become floating and stabilized, new large-scale emission is not allowed. The retirement age was raised, and housing and communal services began to become self-sufficient. Belarus climbed to 37th place in the Doing Business rating. In the near future, a new step towards the emancipation of business is promised, a reduction in the number of inspections by regulatory authorities.
All this is not without the resistance of the anti-reformist lobby.Security officials and controllers are not interested in liberalization – they may lose their powers, local officials and the directorate of state-owned enterprises – they may lose assets. But Lukashenka himself is the main conservative. And the point is not only that for political reasons he does not want to lose control over the economy, but also in the deep anti-market convictions of the president. He does not trust the market, he is afraid of the emergence of large independent businesses and oligarchs in the country, uncontrolled unemployment and the withering away of Soviet industrial giants – Belarusian “brands”.
That is why he does not agree to the main demand of both the IMF and the Belarusian supporters of a market economy – large-scale privatization. In 2016, the president regularly argued in person and in absentia with his own government. Lukashenka has already openly declares that market people have settled there, leaning towards “radical ideas” 20 .
Why doesn’t the president remove those who annoy him from the very top of the vertical? It’s a short bench. Old cadres are already in deep retirement age, and among young professionals it is difficult to find those who are not convinced of the need for structural market reforms.In fact, the situation with today’s reformers is similar: their relative liberality is associated with professionalism and the lack of a Soviet background, and not with a deep ideological orientation.
On the political front, the less reactionary part of the Belarusian elite is represented by the Foreign Ministry and its head Vladimir Makei. When it comes to foreign policy, he and the country’s key diplomats behave like pragmatic people who advocate to stop depending on Russia, to further unfreeze ties with Europe, and as a result – to introduce more European methods of governance and develop the idea of national identity. …According to sources in the authorities, the leadership of the Foreign Ministry in closed discussions is already quite boldly opposing the next rounds of tightening the screws in the country, since this complicates their work in the western direction.
It is important to understand that the “liberals”, like the rest of the Belarusian elite, remain loyal to the president and do not build any independent political plans. They are trying to patch up the system from within, to find arguments to convince Lukashenka, but so far they do not think outside the framework of the existing political order.In the event of an unexpected change of power, they would certainly lay claim to the central place in the new configuration, but they will not do anything to make this scenario more realistic. The Belarusian nomenclature remains monolithic. But the emergence of more progressive-minded officials suggests that cracks will appear in this monolith when the regime begins to weaken.
Trajectories of Belarusian transit
Predicting the future of any personalist regime is a thankless task, because this future is too dependent on the leader, his physical well-being and many “black swans”.If there is no semblance of collective management or a political bureau in an autocracy, not only the figure of the next ruler, but also the format of the transfer of power, remains a mystery.
Alexander Lukashenko is 62 years old, he is two years younger than Vladimir Putin. The president leads a healthy lifestyle, and the best doctors in the country take care of him, so analysts do not think too much about the scenario of a sudden transit. But it cannot be completely ruled out.
If by the time of transit the Belarusian nomenclature is in the same state as it is now (the absence of clans, clear elite groups, a cohesive power bloc and, most importantly, a successor), then we will most likely see a chaotic redistribution of power.With the continued dependence on Moscow and the orientation of the majority towards the Russian Federation, the forces supported by the Kremlin are likely to acquire legitimacy in the eyes of the nomenklatura and society. The West will have neither the political will nor the resources to seriously intervene in what is happening in a country that is still far from it.
Since the president has very broad powers under the constitution, the new Belarusian regime, in the event of a spontaneous transit in the coming years, is likely to be just as personalistic in essence, but with a less charismatic leader at its head.The reason is the general dullness of the Belarusian nomenclature, the targeted and long-term cleaning of bright faces. But, on the other hand, Vladimir Putin also started with a gray image.
Another scenario looks more interesting and so far probable – a smooth erosion of the vertical regime of Alexander Lukashenko in parallel with his physical aging.
The reason for the transit in this case is likely to be the economy. The nervousness over the chronic crisis is already spilling over into the president’s managerial mistakes, such as the infamous tax on parasitism.Its consequences were massive protests, new tightening of the screws, temporary tensions in relations with the West – as a result, the government backed down, suspending the decree. Such mistakes will happen more often as the crisis deepens and, coupled with popular unrest, will introduce an element of turbulence into the system.
Depletion of external and internal resources that support the current model of the economy will push Lukashenka to denationalize it. An increasing share of GDP will be produced in the private sector, in which large businessmen and proto-oligarchy will appear.These people will naturally want to convert their economic influence into a political voice. In parallel, the change of generations in the nomenclature will continue, the share and influence of officials with more market-oriented views than the president’s will continue to grow. Their tactical alliance with representatives of the new big business looks quite organic.
All this can become a reality in 5-7, or 10-12, or even 15 years. Alyaksandr Lukashenka will get the same amount of age. The question of a successor will be more acute than it is today.Open or not, but the nomenclature will start to put it. After that, the country is likely to come to a softer and more oligarchic authoritarianism, modeled on today’s Armenia or Moldova during the reign of Vladimir Voronin.
It cannot be said that the Belarusian president is not thinking about the transit issue. Over the past year, he has hinted several times at a possible referendum to amend the constitution. The head of the Belarusian CEC Lidia Yermoshina recently admitted that the president discussed with her the possibility of a transition to a mixed electoral system, which means an increase in the role of parties in politics 21 .In recent months, Lukashenka has not talked about this – he was busy with protests and settling disputes with Russia, but when these problems are no longer so acute, the topic of the referendum will most likely return to public discourse.
Experiments with the constitution are not typical of the Belarusian president. Therefore, if he decides on them, it will be a matter of a serious and long-term strategy. Namely, the preparation of the system for the approaching smooth transit. Most likely, through the creation of a ruling party in order to consolidate the elite around the future successor and make his position more stable.
It is still impossible to predict what scenario this transfer of power will follow: the elite groups that have grown stronger and are pressing on the president, or Lukashenka himself, who is aware of the risks of an uncontrolled collapse of the system in the event of his spontaneous departure.
The role of Moscow in this process will be proportional to the degree of dependence of the Belarusian economy on Russia at the time of the transit of power. But in any case, this role should not be exaggerated. The favorite of the elites in the first presidential elections in 1994 was Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich with the most pro-Russian agenda and long-standing ties in Moscow.But Lukashenko’s charisma and his rapid political ascent quickly changed everything – both the nomenklatura and Moscow were reoriented.
Of course, the Kremlin today wants more control over neighboring countries than it did in the mid-1990s. But if the basic interests of Russia during the change of power in Belarus are secured, it is hardly worth expecting that it will intervene directly or begin to push for a candidate that will not have the support of the Belarusian elite and society. And those politicians who want to sever ties with Moscow have no chance of receiving such internal support in the foreseeable future.
Of course, all these hypotheses may turn out to be untenable if Lukashenka suddenly appoints a successor himself and thus ensures a fast controlled transit. Or, on the contrary, it will cling to power and make so many economic mistakes that the protest movement will come to the fore in the process of a change of power.
Instead of a conclusion. Why Belarus is not Ukraine
Journalists from different countries, without getting too deep into the topic, like to represent Belarus as Ukraine 2.0. Any protests in Minsk are interpreted as the beginning of the Maidan, any quarrel with Russia as a forerunner of annexation, any modest initiative of the authorities to develop identity as a flirtation with the Belarusian “Bandera”. The author of these lines is a journalist himself and understands how strong the craving for templates and eye-catching headlines can be.
But sometimes you want realism. Whatever the scenario of the transit of the Belarusian political regime, it will almost certainly not repeat the Ukrainian one – neither in what will happen inside the country, nor in relations with Russia.
For protests to lead to a change of power, they must be so massive and stubborn that in the head of the ruler and his entourage the risk of suppressing them outweighs the risk of concessions or resignation. In addition, part of the ruling elite must go over to the side of the protesters. They, in turn, must have effective communication channels at least with each other, ideally with the whole society.
There is no split or alternative centers of power in the Belarusian government, the security forces have repeatedly proved their loyalty.But even if we leave this all aside, the likelihood of the Maidan in Belarus will still tend to zero – due to a critical imbalance in the starting forces. Unlike Ukraine, in Belarus there are no public or political structures capable of organizing or coordinating a mass protest for a long time. There are no publicly available TV channels, influential oligarchs, parliament members and entire regions of the country capable of openly supporting the revolution.
The opposition does not have human and material resources – money or means of self-defense – to physically confront a powerful power machine.The same, in turn, is geared towards suppressing protests and has been practiced in this for the last 15–20 years. In the event of a threat, the Belarusian security forces are able to preemptively neutralize all potential protest leaders, turn off communications and jam the Internet at gathering points, block online media and social networks, prevent people from gathering in designated places and with the required degree of severity detain those who have gathered.
In the world, protest is sometimes born spontaneously and without leaders, for example, due to the fact that the authorities have done something outrageous, but in Belarus, “knowledge grafting” is working against this.People know that protests have never changed the power in the country, but they have seen many times what kind of countermeasures the security forces have and what kind of repression they can get under. Sequential punishment for protest has become an effective preventive measure that demotivates potential protesters.
But for the sake of discussion, let’s imagine that as a result of a revolution or a nomenklatura revolt in Minsk, the government suddenly changed. The new leadership turned out to be so divorced from economic reality and did not realize the degree of dependence on Russia that there was a risk of Belarus turning to the West.
Firstly, not every forced change of power in a post-Soviet country causes such a reaction from Russia, which followed the 2014 Maidan in Ukraine. A military operation with the rejection of one part of a neighboring country and support for separatism in another part is associated with enormous international risks, material and military costs. For the game to be worth the candle, the potential reversal of the rebellious neighbor must be truly threatening in Moscow’s eyes.
Ukraine in this sense is very different from Belarus.In Ukraine, there was both the pro-European western part, which supported the U-turn to Europe, and the pro-Russian eastern part, which, to varying degrees, did not accept it. Plus the autonomous Crimea, historically close to Russia, where thousands of Russian military personnel have already been deployed. All this is a ready-made ground for intervention and playing on the contradictions of the regions.
In homogeneous Belarus, there is none of the above: neither a large number of supporters of the country’s turn to the West, nor certain regions embraced by this idea, nor the Belarusian counterparts of the Crimea or Donbass opposing them.In Belarus, there are not even places of compact residence of ethnic Russians (there are only 7–8% of them) to use these territories as starting points for a hybrid war. It will also be difficult to play the card of oppression of the Russian-speaking minority in a Russian-speaking country.
In Ukraine, both before and after the revolution, there were weak institutions of power, there were no combat-ready security structures, but much more importantly – loyalty to the Kiev authorities in the Donbass and Crimea was very weak or there was none at all.
It is far from obvious that the military in the leadership of Belarus and in its barracks capitulate and defect as easily as many units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Crimea or the police in Donetsk.Yes, it is believed that the Belarusian security forces are pro-Russian, although no one has conducted such research. But in order to be ready to change the banner at the moment of truth, it is not enough just to sympathize with Russia. It is also necessary that your devotion to the oath was weaker than this sympathy. This is possible when you are a resident of a region or a representative of a minority (social group) who feel rejected by the capital’s elites or the rest of the country. But in Belarus there is no such split, either geographic or social.
Lukashenka is sensitive to threats to his power, and one cannot say that he did nothing at all after seeing what was happening in Ukraine. In 2014-2015, a new Defense Minister and Secretary of State of the Security Council were appointed – Andrei Ravkov and Stanislav Zas. Both are relatively young – they are about 50 years old. Both have publicly stated that it is necessary to learn from the Ukrainian experience – to strengthen the border and modernize the army. In 2016, Belarus adopted a new military doctrine, the development of which, according to Ravkov, took into account the risks of a hybrid war and focused on special operations.
All of the above means that even in the event of an incredible turn of Belarus to the West, an attempt by military means to return it to its orbit may turn out to be more costly and risky for Russia than the Crimean and even Donbass operations. You will have to take control of the whole country with a sufficiently combat-ready army.
It is more logical and efficient for Moscow to use economic and energy levers. In the last years of Yanukovych’s rule, Russia’s share in Ukraine’s exports was about 25%.Half of Belarus’ exports go to Russia. In addition, Minsk is 100% dependent on Russian gas, and Belarusian oil refining depends on Russian oil.
Returning to the realm, let us note that all the current quarrels between Alexander Lukashenko and the Russian leadership do not come close to the line after which the Kremlin begins to think about a military solution. Even at the peak of emotional conflicts, Belarus remains the closest military-political ally of Moscow, one of the post-Soviet countries most economically dependent on Russia.
It is possible that our descendants will assess this first stage of Belarusian history – namely, the forced union with Russia with the parallel construction of institutions of sovereignty – as one of the few realistic options for maintaining independence, which a young country with a weak national identity, Soviet economy and mentality had most of the population and the elite. These assessments, of course, will also depend on how peacefully and bloodlessly the transfer of power will take place.
The question of what will have to pay for the pro-Russian orientation, how much it will slow down the economic and political transformation of Belarus, is still open. So far, Russian support has not only ensured the stability of the Belarusian government, but also weakened its motivation to democratize and build a competitive economy.
It just so happened that the stage of formation of independent Belarus went hand in hand with the regime of Alexander Lukashenko. As with humans, the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of a political system are an inevitable continuation of its strengths.The reverse side of the institutional stability of the Belarusian regime, its monolithic nature and controllability is the dependence of this system on the character and worldview of Lukashenka. Namely – his craving for power, conservatism, fear of change, nostalgia for the USSR and leftist views.
Even if, contrary to the expectations of many observers, this system suddenly collapses, in order to get rid of the foundations of Lukashenka’s authoritarianism, those features of the Belarusian society that made such a regime not only possible, but also stable, it will take many years, maybe even decades.
Notes
1 Press release based on the results of the national survey in June 2015. – IISEPS. – July 3, 2015 // http://www.iiseps.org/?p=2678.
4 Lukashenka ordered to reduce fuel prices from tomorrow morning. – Belarusian portal Tut.by. – June 8, 2011 // https://news.tut.by/economics/230076.html.
5 Spachatka – pratetes, sweaty – earnings 14-17 milion. – Radio Svaboda. – December 21, 2012 // http: // www.svaboda.org/a/24805222.html.
7 Key findings from the national survey in March 2016. – IISEPS. – April 3, 2016 // http://www.iiseps.org/?p=3960.
10 In the summer of 2016, unable to withstand the pressure of the special services, the director of IISEPS decided to stop working. In addition to IISEPS, there were and are other centers that conduct opinion polls, but either irregularly, which does not allow monitoring the dynamics, or for private customers, fearing to publish political data.Nevertheless, their rare publications at least made it possible to verify the IISEPS data, so we will rely on these figures.
14 March-2016: Belarus – EU: thaw is not summer. – IISEPS. – April 4, 2016 // http://www.iiseps.org/?p=4268.
15 REFORUM: The population of Belarus: they want reforms, but are not ready for their consequences. – Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies. – May 16, 2015 // http://belinstitute.eu/ru/node/2513#_ftn1; Data from the national IISEPS survey on June 2-12, 2016.- IISEPS. – June 29, 2016 // http://www.iiseps.org/?p=4733.
16 Whose Crimea? How the state structures of Belarus are solving this delicate issue. – Belarusian portal Tut.by. – April 18, 2016 // https://news.tut.by/politics/492219.html.
17 Answer of the press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Dmitry Mironchik to the question of the agency “BelTA”. – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus. – November 25, 2015 // http://mfa.gov.by/press/news_mfa/eaaf182c8b63ddc7.html.
19 Ore: Economists are needed.But not silent ones from loyalty, but warning ones – from patriotism. – Belarusian portal Tut.by. – November 3, 2016 // https://news.tut.by/economics/518684.html.
21 Lydia Yermoshina – about the elections in a new way, the referendum, the death penalty and Belarusian men. – Belarusian portal Tut.by. – February 10, 2017 // https://news.tut.by/economics/530981.html.
90,000 Anna Meshcheryakova, “Third Opinion”: move to Siliconovaya
The creator and CEO of an innovative Russian company that creates medical services based on artificial intelligence, gave an interview to Ilya Kopelevich, Editor-in-Chief of Business FM
Anna Meshcheryakova is a young entrepreneur who managed a family-owned computer trading company, founded several more food businesses, worked for the Ministry of Digital Industry and created a high-tech start-up to develop artificial intelligence for medical technologies.She graduated from school as an external student at the age of 15, then studied at two universities in parallel. Fluent in English, Chinese and German. She told about everything else herself in an interview with Chief Editor of Business FM Ilya Kopelevich.
Anna Meshcheryakova. Photo: Sk.ru
“Third Opinion” is an innovation company, one of the few in Russia, perhaps the only one that creates artificial intelligence, neural networks for medicine, makes analysis of analyzes. What it is, we’ll talk a little later.Let’s start with a biography. Anna has been in business since she was 17, and then it was quite a trading business, and at 22 she was the CEO. She speaks English, it turns out, she also speaks Chinese, and in two dialects, she also speaks basic – as she said – German, and so on. She went through these stages for 20 years, and the Cambridge MBA also managed to visit there. Anna, at the age of 15 you graduated from school as an external student, which is also an infrequent case, went to study, but at the age of 17 you ended up in business. How did it come about?
Anna Meshcheryakova : It happened quite by accident, during the summer holidays, I wanted to do something useful, and my father invited me to come to a temporary job.It was the sale of computers, components, monitors, and an illiquid product was formed in the company that needed to be sold, and the company’s employees could not cope with this task in any way. I was free, and there were no special plans for the summer, and I decided it was a good idea and got a job. My first salary at that time was $ 300.
Was it 1999? Not high even by those crisis standards. How did all the other managers, especially the middle ones, top managers look at the owner’s daughter, who came to cope with a task that they could not cope with?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Few people were happy with me.There were few such people, but they were. And there really were people who helped me figure out what and how to do.
Did you understand anything at that moment about these stale goods that you had to sell?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Very, very little. Despite the fact that my father really had this business and had the opportunity to get acquainted with computers, somehow I had no time for that, there were other hobbies at that time, and I had to study everything from scratch: what needs to be sold, especially who needs to be sold, how the market works, who are our customers and for what reasons they should buy exactly my product.
And you have succeeded that others have failed?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, I succeeded, and here, I think, it was my personal quality that played a role – my inability to refuse a given goal. The goal was to sell, at that time they were large cathode-ray monitors, and there really was a large number of them in the warehouse, and it was necessary to sell them. At that time, clients answered that they prefer monitors of famous brands, and not the one that I offered.And it became obvious to me that this is still a question of price, because this product is utilitarian, that is, it is impossible to work without monitors, and the characteristics of our product were the same.
As I know, you studied at two universities, but since that summer your business, and professional, has not ended?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, it didn’t work out. The summer passed, but it did not work out to give up work, I had to stay and transfer first to the evening, then to the correspondence department at the university and devote myself entirely and completely only to work, only to business.
In my opinion, you have a colossal baggage of knowledge accumulated over a lifetime, moreover, academic knowledge. You graduated from school at the age of 15 as an external student, it was, as you said, boring to study in high school, it could be faster and faster. There are two universities, one is the Russian State University for the Humanities “World Economy”, the other is the Institute of Practical Oriental Studies, where you simultaneously studied Chinese. But you said that it was boring at school, so you went quickly, at the institute it was also boring, went to trade. Was it really more interesting, given your interest in different knowledge, to trade at this age than, I’m not talking about the fact that it is easy to light up in student companies, but even just to study, study and study?
Anna Meshcheryakova : It is very interesting to set challenging goals and achieve them.At that time, such a job was provided, and it was interesting from the point of view not of its content, but of drive, overcoming, sports passion that I have. In my studies, both at school and at the university, everything was very, very measured, at least for me. Everything was clear, transparent: program, session, and so on. I coped with everything much earlier than the deadlines were set.
Your dad set your salary 300 dollars, lower than the average for the company at that time.Did you have a money drive at this age and subsequently? After all, business is about making money, including for yourself. Or what is your case?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, of course. In my case, especially when it comes to the fact that you are engaged in sales, the issue of motivation and participation as a result of these sales is very important. Therefore, a little later, about a year after I started working and showed noticeable results, a design with a bonus system was proposed, that is, a percentage of sales.Some kind of competition was established between all the sales managers. I can’t say that everything is absolute, but most of the periods when I was only engaged in sales, I also managed to be number one among the sales managers. And this also moved me forward and gave me new strength and desire to move on in sales. That is, I was not interested in the content of this process itself – what exactly I say to clients, but in the result that I manage to overcome objections and achieve a deal.
“I wanted to do something that has some kind of social effect.”
For ten years you were engaged in this business, then you closed it, then there were more interesting stages, we will talk about them. The company “Third Opinion” is engaged in medicine, the creation of artificial intelligence for medical processes, this is the analysis of analyzes. Let’s better describe what you are doing, who else in the world is doing it, with whom are you competing, what is it for?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Third Opinion develops services for the healthcare system: recognition of pathologies on medical images, for example, X-ray, CT, MRI, and also a service for monitoring patients both in the ward and in the corridors of the hospital by analyzing video images.Our competitors are today three thousand startups in the world that work in this area. But such a legislator and the first company that pushed us on this idea was the well-known company IBM Watson Health. It is truly a world leader; it is the number one famous company in this area. It all started when we met with this company, it was already more than three years ago, IBM Watson was looking in Russia for its own sources for its R&D (research and development work.- Business FM), that is, the very medical data that are needed and necessary to create these systems, because artificial intelligence is trained at the expense and on the basis of natural – the intelligence of doctors.
That is, it is the doctors who must mark up the various images, set the parameters by which the robot will then independently make certain decisions. Where is the confidence that artificial intelligence is better than humans in this matter?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Artificial intelligence is of two types: general – broad or strong artificial intelligence, and narrow – weak artificial intelligence.What is the difference? We deal with the one that is weak. We have very limited tasks, unlike a doctor. For a doctor, the task of working with a patient is less limited, and we can set a very narrow task for artificial intelligence, limited from point “A” to point “B”: what information the robot receives at the input, processes it, where does this processing end and what result does it end … And due to this narrowing, this focusing, the superiority of artificial intelligence – in our case, narrow, weak – over the doctor arises.
What practical problem should this mainly solve, where does it work?
Anna Meshcheryakova : The most serious efficiency that these systems show on the market today is sorting medical images for normal and abnormal.
That is, to distinguish exactly the healthy from the possibly unhealthy?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, that’s right. And thereby to optimize both the time and budgetary costs of the health care system for working with those who do not complain about anything, who have no pain and who are actually healthy.
Do healthy people often come for CT, MRI, X-rays and so on?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Now all over the world, and in Russia too, there is a tendency towards preventive medicine.
That is, continuous medical examination, examination of healthy people. As they say, there are no healthy ones, there are under-examined ones.
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, that’s why there are really a lot of such patients, and a robot can sort this very norm and already provide the doctor with only those with whom it is necessary to work precisely and devote the very minutes that are set by the standards.
How old is this technology? After all, this is not just a device, it is a medical device. In medicine, statistics are collected for many, many years, sometimes for ten years, on large arrays of research. What results has your company managed to achieve so far?
Anna Meshcheryakova : In general, technologies existed ten years ago, and even 20 years ago, and ten years ago there were publications that the time has come when now artificial intelligence will be massively introduced into healthcare.But in fact, we are today at the same point – on the verge of this massive implementation. And here the question is how accessible these digital data are, on which to learn algorithms. They are now becoming massively available to developers like Third Opinion and other companies around the world.
That is, first you need to collect a huge number of these images, plant doctors who will mark and set the parameters, so that later the robot, with its own eyes, looking at them, based on these markings made by doctors on a large array of data, draw its conclusions? Boring work for doctors, I think.
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, this is a routine job for a doctor. Indeed, data is primary, and it must be balanced in different ways. This should be data from various diagnostic devices from various manufacturers – both Western and Chinese and Russian, because the image that is obtained as a result and is saved on the server of a medical organization will differ in its parameters, and in order to learn the algorithm, it is necessary to work with images of different types.Therefore, the data set, that is, the very initial sample for training algorithms, is primary, and indeed they should be counted in millions of images.
How did you move from the computer trade to such a creative medical and high-tech industry?
Anna Meshcheryakova : I had the opportunity to become an expert in domestic software. As we all know, after 2014, there has been a trend towards import substitution in Russia. This also affected IT technologies and software in particular.Therefore, the Ministry of Digital Development has established an expert council, which includes experts from reputable companies. These are large development companies, such as 1C, Natalya Kasperskaya was a member of this council for a very long time (I don’t know at the moment), and I had the opportunity to join this council. I worked in this position for two years. As an expert, I assessed whether the software was Russian, and it had to be assessed according to different parameters. These are the legal parameters for documents, and for the ownership of this software product, to what extent it belongs to Russian citizens.And, of course, it was necessary to analyze the source code, that is, it was necessary to see how independent this software was from Western proprietary software.
How did you understand this?
Anna Meshcheryakova : It was not without the creation of a small team. In order to do even this work, it took a small team – about five people to ensure the work of such one expert. These were both lawyers and IT specialists – testers.
And you had to look at our various developers, and you saw the people with whom you decided to start your own new business?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, interesting teams came, and indeed several teams went through our expert council, which were engaged in the recognition of various patterns, various images, in particular, face recognition. One of these teams really made a very strong impression, and then we continued our acquaintance, communication and came to the decision to create a new direction in pattern recognition together.
Recognition of medical images – why did it occur to you, where did it come from?
Anna Meshcheryakova : I wanted to do something that has some kind of social effect, something that can really affect what is happening, including in our country.
But did you already know that, as you said, artificial intelligence is on the cusp of medical use?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, at that time there were already meetings with IBM Watson and with other Western companies, who talked about what heights they manage to achieve and how far medicine has stepped forward.And, on the one hand, as a specialist in software and technologies that are available today, and, on the other hand, as a user of medical services in Russia, it became obvious that it is necessary to create these services here in Russia. and promote.
“I have to borrow something even now.”
Did you have the money to start?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, there was money at that time to start.
Already your own, personal money earned in the first family business, which you later, by the way, headed, but we will not remember everything. So you had where to start?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, there was something to start with, and here was supported by the partner who headed the R&D direction, that is, the development of algorithms. He took over the cost of this developer part, and that was the bulk of the cost. I had some of the costs associated with administrative work.Everything that was not related to development was on me.
You have invested your money, most of it. What is the personal risk?
Anna Meshcheryakova : I even had to borrow some money in order to start.
Is it redeemed? Sorry for this question.
Anna Meshcheryakova : Partially repaid, partially I have to borrow something even now. In addition to the fact that I really initially invested what I had, I have two more operating businesses that bring a certain stable income, cash flow, cash flow every month, and I really reinvest this money in the Third Opinion startup.One of these businesses is also a kind of startup, but which has already stepped over the age and revenue of a startup and has become successful in its segment of companies. This is the Sooperfoods company – the production of food products in the healthy lifestyle concept.
So far, your revenue figures are not very large. Is someone already buying this technology? More precisely, you have a finished product, not that technology: you have a program, it is licensed, which means that any clinic can buy a license, install this software, and instead of doctors looking at dozens and hundreds of images with their eyes, a robot first looks at them and reacts where there are deviations, and the doctor is connected.How about sales, how about implementation? Do you go abroad? I know that you travel abroad all the time. How is it like in Russia?
Anna Meshcheryakova : With sales, everything is not so easy and simple, because the technology really requires validation, and not only technological, but also medical, it really takes time. In medicine, the longest presale of all those markets that I have been able to see and in which I have been able to work. Indeed, the presale cycle lasts from six months, this is the minimum period for which you can make a sale and close a deal.As for the actual sales and customers, yes, they are, there are not many of them, and we plan that this year we will indeed already have significant revenue figures, we will succeed in those pilot implementations that we have done, with a significant discount, sometimes with a discount. up to 90% of the price, convert already into commercial contracts with medical organizations.
“Everything is very serious in Russia. They are waiting for an absolutely finished product. ”
I know that you participated in the 500 Startups program, this is one of the largest global foundations that grow technology startups, traveled to Silicon Valley.It is often possible to hear that those successful technological business initiatives that we have, as a result, to a large extent move there, because there is capital that can support the growth, development and scaling of companies, there are markets – in general, everything is there. more convenient. What do you think of it?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, we were really lucky to be in Silicon Valley, San Francisco, in 500 Startups and work in this world famous accelerator.Why do I say lucky? Because if the circumstances did not really coincide and we were not taken away and actually sent there, I do not know when we would have come to this. Because there are a lot of tasks and a lot of work here. But the trip turned out to be extremely beneficial for us and very efficient. We looked at the entrepreneurial environment that is there, at the opportunities that Silicon Valley has for startups. Undoubtedly, the possibilities of attracting venture capital investments are far, far superior to those in Russia, simply even in terms of the number of investors.Of course, the ecosystem for startups is open, of course, accelerators offer integrations right away with the industry pool of clients for you.
That is, with potential customers, where you can experience what has been done in real practice.
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes. After spending a little over a month in the accelerator, we have already had the opportunity to present our product to the largest clinics in the state of California. For me it was really a revelation and a surprise that, having arrived from Russia, one might say, a month ago, we can already fully work and introduce our products with artificial intelligence in the largest clinics in California.
And how did it go?
Anna Meshcheryakova : The market is very open, and it turned out that our product readiness and maturity, on average, is much higher than what American startups achieve MVP levels (minimum viable product – Business FM), that is, this minimal implementation. That is, there is a positive, and today we are already at the stage of opening a subsidiary American company to our Russian one. We already have employees in the USA, California, who are selling our products there.
By the way, you are a resident of Skolkovo. Also such a brilliant system. Compare what works best and why. What works better – the answer is unequivocal: in Silicon Valley, orders of magnitude more startups are growing in the company than so far all of us combined. The question is why.
Anna Meshcheryakova : There are a lot of startups in Skolkovo, and the ecosystem is set up efficiently enough for startups to come. There are benefits, all conditions have been created for startups to work comfortably.And these conditions, in fact, are more comfortable than those that were presented to us in San Francisco in the accelerator.
Do you mean office, premises, transport infrastructure?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, food, everything is at a very high level. However, there really is a lack of integration into the real sector. Seamless integration, interaction of accelerators, incubators, technology parks with potential customers for which this startup is working.
Less than a month in California, you started trying and implementing the product you developed in California clinics. And here in Russia?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Skolkovo has just different tasks.
It doesn’t matter if Skolkovo or not Skolkovo. It took a month there. Did this happen in Russia? Are you implementing in Russian clinics?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, we are being implemented in Russian clinics: both in leading private clinics and in state clinics.But we do it ourselves. Here, no one helps us, and no one takes us by the hand and does not do the so-called intro by email – they do not represent us at some major private clinic. In Silicon Valley, in the 500 Startups accelerator, this is absolutely normal, it is part of the culture, it is a rule to constantly make these intro, small emails, literally two sentences apart, throughout your contact list. It really works – they are answered.
I can conclude for you that after all, one of the main reasons why there is a lot of it, and we have relatively little, despite the great efforts – offices, catering, whatever you want, that the business there is much more open to innovative start-ups than ours? That is, there you pass this road in a month: if you have something to offer, you are already there.Here you have been working in this field for several years … Or am I wrong?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Everything is very serious in Russia. They are waiting for an absolutely finished product, absolutely polished, verified, certified. And only with such companies, with companies in a mature stage, are we ready to talk. And this very topic was also touched upon at Skolkovo: yes, there are companies that are ready to interact with startups, but this all concerns startups in the mature stage. And in Silicon Valley, companies are ready to interact with startups at the level of an idea, they are ready to discuss it, large clinics are ready to give consultations and spend time on those startups for which nothing has yet been formalized and the product does not work yet.That is why everything is so fast and dynamic. Indeed, a company can raise significant money at the idea level.
What stage are you at now? It is known that there are seven stages of a startup’s development, each characterized by the fact that a startup, if it is promising and developing in order for it to live, must constantly attract new money for each of its stages. How are we with that? You invested yours, your partner invested yours, probably there were some grants from our foundations. So, what is next?
Anna Meshcheryakova : Last year we received financing from Sberbank.This can be called a precede investment, which we also received in the form of a convertible loan. This is a fairly accepted form for startups around the world. For Russia, it is still quite new, including from the point of view of Russian legislation. This is a form that allows a startup to borrow money and convert it later into an equity stake. Therefore, today we can say that Sberbank is already our shareholder, participant.
Sberbank in this case acts as such an institutional venture investor.In fact, this is a venture investment, when a loan is given for a share in a future business. And in Sberbank, how did you manage to go through the procedures, in your opinion? And were there any alternatives? In general, they say that we now have more venture investors than projects. Investors are trying to find, but there are fewer projects than investors. How do you feel about it?
Anna Meshcheryakova: It seems to me that both in projects and in investors, the issue is not quantity, but quality. I think the quality issue is here.There may be really a lot of investors, but the question is their willingness to invest and what amounts. This is absolutely incomparable to what is available to startups in Silicon Valley. There are investors, but they are very conservative, and one of the main vectors for a venture investor in Russia is for a startup to be oriented towards the international market.
But it’s the same for everyone now. If you are making a narrow technology, it must be widely sold. And all startups tend to do something narrow.
Anna Meshcheryakova : Yes, I’m just saying that this is an absolute focus, and those venture investors who work in Russia are focused on supporting startups for which the Russian market is not the main and decisive one and whose technology is competitive on the world market. And here we are just answering the question why there are few such projects. Because this is not an easy task in itself – to create a technology here that is competitive on the world market. It is clear that the task itself is not an easy one, especially if we are talking about such high-tech projects, to which the Third Opinion belongs.
“In startups it is not customary to say” I will never sell my company “
How do you see your future business career and company development? Do you have any plans for how it should develop? Is there an IPO at the end of this plan, for example? What path should the company go through, where will it reach the point where it will continue its future life?
Anna Meshcheryakova : From the point of view of the business model, the company is a potential unicorn company.That is, the company’s business model allows us to strive for this. That is, this is a company with a valuation above $ 100 million. Not necessarily a billion dollars, even more than $ 100 million – this is already a company with such potential. Why this business model? Because we sell software licenses. If this model is successful, it is replicable and can grow very quickly, including in the global market. Therefore, the company potentially has such high valuation indicators. It could be an IPO, it could be some kind of strategic investor, it could be some kind of global technology giant.We do not exclude that this could potentially be a company like Google, it could be Philips.
So you can sell it? Is this the goal – to bring the technology, create a sales and customer network and sell?
Anna Meshcheryakova : We do not set a specific goal, but we must calculate, including for our investors, possible development options. Today we are far from that. There is already a proposal for cooperation with one or the other company, but they, of course, are not at the level today that is strategically interesting for us.That is, it is still such a business partnership. In startups it is not customary to say “I will never sell my company.” It is up to investors, among other things, to decide at some point in time, what will really be profitable, how much the company will grow at some point in time, for example, in ten years, or this growth will stabilize, and this strategic investor or strategic investor is already in this In the case of a partner, this will be the most optimal choice for the company. But this is a prospect of ten plus years. For the next ten years, we really have a development plan, growth, including an increase in the company’s valuation through annual revenue growth and dominance.That is, the goal is to be a national champion in those countries where we see it possible. Of course, Russia is one of these countries and the number one country for us.
Just moving to Silicon Valley – what do you think about it? What to hide, many, once there, think, why not stay there.
Anna Meshcheryakova : Such ideas come to mind, and that’s okay. It is really comfortable to be there. This is really a different world. You feel like a successful startup whether you are or not.All conditions have been created for this. We went to work in this office, and there were only successful startups around us.
Doesn’t anyone fail there? Maybe they just look like that?
Anna Meshcheryakova : This is the feeling that is in the air. They say that you can walk down the street in San Francisco and meet your strategic investor just at Starbucks and discuss your product, this is called “pitching”, that is, presenting in two minutes and attracting tens of millions of dollars of investment – just at Starbucks …These are real life examples of startups. But just moving to Silicon Valley is probably not our path, and precisely because we are very closely associated with interaction with medical organizations. Why did IBM Watson come here, to Russia, why did we meet, why did they go to a huge number of Russian medical institutions? In the United States, it is quite difficult to work with data, especially with patient data.
Putting doctors to process tens of thousands of images is probably very expensive.
Anna Meshcheryakova : Absolutely right. This is an order of magnitude difference. And not only is it expensive, but finding these doctors, finding free time with these doctors is not an easy task. And what is most interesting – these doctors, at least those with whom I managed to meet, for example, the head of the department of radiology diagnostics in the largest hospital in Los Angeles – he has a Russian name and a Russian surname. Question: after all, is it probably more profitable for a startup to work with its colleagues who work in Moscow or other cities of Russia and have a different salary?
This means that you are tied to Russia economically, you could say that.
Anna Meshcheryakova : And technologically. Because the developers in Russia, in particular, those with whom we work, are truly at the global level in terms of their technological competencies. Again, there is no reason to work with other teams from other countries. And American startups very often, even without Russian roots among the founders, work with development teams from Russia and the CIS countries. From the point of view of our current, rather early stage, it is optimal for us to be here, to work here: both in terms of data, and in terms of working with doctors, and in terms of interaction with programmers, and in terms of what needs to be done with to start somewhere, you need to become big somewhere in some market.And it is still more logical for us to do this here, in Russia.
Economically justified patriotism.
Source: bfm.ru
The head of the Fed sees no reason for the slowdown in the growth of the American economy
Recall that the Fed raised rates four times in 2018, expecting inflation to accelerate amid falling unemployment after sustained employment growth. Then, in August of this year, the Ministry of Labor revised its estimate of job creation for the year ended March 2019, according to which an average of 170 thousand jobs were created.jobs per month instead of the expected 210 thousand
The head of the Fed noted that although these data did not change the regulator’s forecast much, they indicated a weaker impetus to the economy than previously expected.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Powell noted that US monetary policy is currently well suited to support a strong labor market and a rapid return of inflation to the 2% target. “If the forecast changes significantly, so will policy,” Powell said.
► Moodyʼs sees threats to the US credit rating
He added that the outlook for the US economy this year remained favorable mainly due to the fact that the Fed quickly adjusted its position. In this regard, Powell noted that he sees no reason for a slowdown in the growth of the American economy. “At this stage of long-term growth, I see that the glass is more than half full,” said the head of the Fed. “With the right policies, we can fill it further by building on our successes and spreading the benefits more widely to all Americans.”
Recall that at the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on October 29-30, the Fed announced a rate cut to a range of 1.5-1.75%. This was the third cut in interest rates this year, and it is likely that at the remainder of its meeting in December, the Fed leadership will take a pause in the monetary policy easing cycle. This is supported by changes in the tone of the regulator’s statement. In particular, from the text of the American Central Bank, the phrase about “taking the necessary measures if they are required” has disappeared.
► On October 30, the US Federal Reserve cut the rate by 25 points for the third time in a row
The Fed has previously cut its key rate several times in a row to prevent a recession. In particular, a massive reduction in the base rate in the United States took place at every meeting between July 13, 1990 and September 4, 1992 – from 8% to 3% against the background of the development of the S&L crisis (lending and savings), the bursting of the Japanese bubble. the Scandinavian banking crisis and the outbreak of the global recession after a series of political upheavals, both in the Persian Gulf and in Eastern Europe.
Then, in 1995-1996, the rate fell three times in a row from 6% to 5.25% – due to the crisis in Latin America, in 1998 – from 5.5% to 4.75% – against the background of the Asian crisis. The head of the regulator Jerome Powell previously spoke of these rate cuts in the 1990s as safety measures to keep the economy going.
For two years (2000-2001), the rate dropped at each FOMC meeting from 6.5% to 1.75%, after the dot-com bubble burst in the markets.
The last massive cut in FRS rates was observed in 2007-2008 in two periods: during each meeting from May 9, 2007 to April 30, 2008 – from 5.25% to 2%, and then four times from September 16 to December 16, 2008 – from 2% to 0.25%.As we remember, in 2008 the global financial crisis broke out, the source of which was the US economy. What to expect from the current non-stop Fed rate cut – the 2020 crisis?
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