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Our goal Is to develop the passion for the game of lacrosse so that each player is given the opportunity to maximize their potential.

Thrilled with the team size… really optimizes playing time — excellent coaching — advanced skill-specific coaching — Coaches have taken a personal interest in my daughters’ development.

– Michele M.
While the team is new, they were able to improve as each game went on. We believe this comes from the coaching. The coaches kept the atmosphere very positive and our daughter had an excellent experience with her first tournament with this club.

– Sue and Lyle H.

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Our Strategy Is To Lay The Foundation Of Training To Succeed As A Way Of Life

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Elite on the background of defeats. Where is the split in the Russian leadership

Russia is approaching the final battle between radicals, for whom escalation is a way of life, and realists, who are aware that further aggravation can lead to complete collapse

A possible split in the Russian elite was discussed a couple of months ago, after a hasty retreat near Kharkov. Since then, Russia also left Kherson, and the promised split began to take shape more and more clearly. Representatives of the elite were divided into conditional realists who call for a pause in hostilities in order to rethink their goals, and supporters of ruthless escalation at any cost. Vladimir Putin, in this construction, is closer to the second pole, but loses credibility with both.

In anticipation of the inevitable

Never before has President Putin’s strategic decisions brought the Russian elite to the brink of a split. She almost did not resist either the defeat of the oligarchs or the building of a vertical, and even perceived the rise of the security forces rather as a price for stability. The war in Georgia did not raise questions, and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 made many people happy.

Then everything went on knurled: Putin’s friends rose higher and became bolder, the security forces penetrated not only the state, but also private space (for example, to senior positions in large companies), signs of state ideology appeared (traditional values, spirituality, anti-Americanism and anti-liberalism). Since 2015, life in the country has been rapidly Sovietized, reaching the zeroing of Putin’s terms and the complete defeat of the non-systemic opposition.

None of this caused rifts. The elites grumbled, but continued to live as if nothing had happened. Even the invasion of Ukraine came as a shock, but did not lead to a split. Those who were categorically against it left. Those who could not leave were silent for a long time.

Explaining the reasons for such political impotence of the elite, experts usually talk about fear of Putin or the lack of opportunities to show their position, to get through to the president. But this is more like a consequence than a reason for the unwillingness of the elites to ask questions about what is happening.

The real reasons are rather the recognition of Putin’s dominance and the concentration of conservatives in the political mainstream. No one will go against the current, especially if it becomes more and more powerful, unprincipled and intolerant of deviations from the general line – that is, anti-Western conservatism.

Fear of Putin is largely an understanding of reality: everything anti-Putin (read: non-systemic) must be crushed. Those who have something to lose will pragmatically prefer to hide and shut up.

In addition, for a long time the Russian elite believed that Russia could not lose in the war with Ukraine: Putin would come up with some new plan and straighten things out. It seemed that in any case it could not be much worse – after all, the West had already used almost its entire arsenal of pressure tools.

The elites, albeit reluctantly, were forced to accept Russia’s war against Ukraine as a given. There are no alternatives to it, everything has gone too far. And if it comes to defeat, then there may be a threat of socio-political destabilization and the rise of the masses. The elites do not want any revolutions.

Therefore, before the September retreat near Kharkov, the calculation of the majority of the elite, from the security forces to big business, was simple: Russia would have to win somehow. No matter what this would mean in practice, the meaning is the same: the Kremlin should receive some “conquests” as a result of the war, which will allow the regime to avoid collapse.

However, since September, everything began to change rapidly. For the first time in 23 years of Putin’s rule, there is every reason to talk about a gradual split within the elite. Representatives of both emerging groups remain pro-Putin and systemic, but they have different views on how Russia should behave further and what its priorities are. And since the split occurs within, among its own, the repressive apparatus, sharpened to fight against the non-systemic, cannot do anything about it.

Putin himself is absent from this nascent dispute. No one looks back at him, if only because no one understands his position. His leadership function is blurred because he continues to wage the war as a “special operation”, does not clarify its goals and ignores the thousands of questions that arise about how to solve the problem of Ukraine, given Russia’s limited resources.

Until September, the elites had the feeling that Putin knew what he was doing. But after the surrender of Kharkiv and Kherson, against the backdrop of referendums for no clear reason (Russia frankly refuses to defend what it has taken and directly devalues its own Constitution), everything is perceived as an accelerated movement towards chaos and even the collapse of the country. The war was not so frightening as the prospect of a free fall into the abyss. In this sense, Putin seems to be a weak figure to both poles of the elites, and their very appearance is a reaction to the weakness of the leader.

The split is taking shape around one question: what to do if Russia loses the war? Almost all members of the elite agree that this will happen if nothing changes. Even Crimea will have to be surrendered, and there it is not far from complete capitulation with an international tribunal, many years of reparations payments and the establishment of a pro-Western government. That is why the peace party never appeared in Russia – in its current vulnerable position, it immediately becomes a party of defeat, and no one is ready to sign up as a defeatist yet.

Realist pole

But if not defeat, then what? This is where an increasingly pronounced division within the elite appears (that is, by default, within the pro-war camp). The first pole is the realists, who believe that since Russia cannot win the war now, then it is necessary to take a break in order to restore the army and the economy, as well as update the political system. For realists, the start of the war was a mistake caused by a distorted understanding of the country’s capabilities. It was also impossible to hold referendums, since there was no way to keep what was won. Realists are against surrendering positions: the front line must be held by going on the defensive.

In the ranks of realists there are not only technocrats and businessmen, but also security officials and ultra-patriots who imagine what is happening at the front. Many of them do not have independent political weight, but they have apparatus influence (high-ranking officials) or financial capabilities (representatives of big business). Even state oligarchs like Igor Sechin and Sergei Chemezov are also more pragmatists than supporters of victory at any cost. They have something to lose.

Realists are also represented in the media field, where serious criticism of the army is already allowed and the vulnerability of the country in the “unfolding war with NATO” is recognized. Take, for example, recent statements by Deputy Konstantin Zatulin on Solovyov’s talk show, where the well-known Duma hawk not only spoke out against the use of nuclear weapons to protect the annexed territories, but also spoke very controversially about the status of the annexed regions.

Such fluctuations in the information field are a direct consequence of the fact that media curators themselves do not understand what is happening and how to cover up the failures. Therefore, they concentrate on the main thing – they cover Putin by hitting his subordinates.

The escalation pole

The opposite pole to the realists is the supporters of the escalation. Its representatives insist that Russia can avoid defeat only if it decides on a full-scale mobilization, concentration of resources and ruthless bombardment of Ukraine to the bitter end. This part of the elite is much more diverse, but they have one thing in common: the worse the state of affairs at the front, the more political dividends these people can receive.

Outstanding representatives of the Escalation Party are Yevgeny Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov. The first from the fringe became one of the most prominent characters of the pro-war mainstream. The second is actively trying to transform his military achievements into a special position at the federal level – where the Kremlin did not let him in before. This also includes the conditional camp of the pro-war hype – the active part of United Russia and the systemic opposition, especially the hawkish part of the Communist Party. All of them are built into the vertical and earn points with their local victories, which may seem brighter against the background of the defeats of the Russian army.

With reservations, the Kovalchuk brothers can also be included among the supporters of escalation. They, like Sechin or Chemezov, have something to lose, but what brings them closer to Prigozhin is that they do not take state assets for themselves, managing them privately, but, on the contrary, give their private assets (be it media or PMCs) under supervision states, and therefore are forced to fit into the state logic. And the more the state needs their services, the more weight they have in hardware.

While many of the escalationists, including the Kovalchuks, are not particularly influential, it is this pole that defines Russian tactics in Ukraine today. Because this pole is ideologically closer to Putin. The President is also convinced that the bombing of the energy infrastructure will reduce the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army and bring down the popularity of the authorities, after which Moscow will be able to dictate the terms of surrender to Kyiv.

If this plan does not work (and there is great doubt that it will succeed), the escalation party will become even stronger and more radical. Moreover, it is more radical in relation not only to Ukrainians, but also to defeatists and ineffective managers within the Russian government (look at Prigozhin’s powerful anti-elite rhetoric). However, the Realist Party will also gain political weight, especially given that public opinion is gradually shifting towards de-escalation.

Russia is approaching the final battle between radicals, for whom escalation is a way of life, and realists, who are aware that further escalation can lead to complete collapse. The result of this struggle is still unpredictable, but it will predetermine not only the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but also the future of Russia.

following author:

Tatyana Stanovaya

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Carnegie Politika as an organization do not share a common position on social and political issues. This publication reflects the personal views of the authors and should not be construed as those of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The scenarios of the revolution in Ukraine are described: Ukraine: Former USSR: Lenta.ru

Photo: Valentin Ogirenko / Reuters from the elites, which can follow one of three acceptable scenarios. This opinion was expressed by political scientist Dmitry Levy in a conversation with Lenta. ru.

The office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened to deprive Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko of his citizenship. The words of the head of the Ukrainian capital are quoted by the Babel edition. According to him, the threat came after he signed an open letter to the president with a request to return citizenship to the head of the territorial defense of the Dnieper, Gennady Korban. “I will tell you a secret. After I signed the letter, I had a conversation with a hint: “You are so proactive, we haven’t taken your German citizenship yet,” the mayor said.

Local politics

“There is no need to look for some global reasons here, it is about local politics,” Levy is sure. “The internal political situation in Ukraine today is rather weak: the lack of results on the military and economic lines is forcing the political authorities of the country to create more and more reasons to mobilize the population and create the feeling that there is some kind of plan and the state is moving along it. ”

It is the fight against certain internal enemies, according to Levy, that has become the main leitmotif of today’s domestic political agenda of Ukraine, which is a fairly simple and obvious trick. The problem turned out to be only that internal enemies are already ending.

All the weakest and most vulnerable have already been removed, there remain strong middle peasants who can snap back and pursue their own policy. Klitschko is just one of those – he cannot be thrown down so easily, he has his own electoral support and audience, he is confidently on his feet

Dmitry Levipolitologist

happening in the country’s foreign policy.

New Maidan?

In normal times, such successive internecine clashes could provoke unrest in society and even become the cause of a new Maidan. But for this, as Levy noted, the willingness of the population, which is now focused on completely different problems, is needed.

“Maidan needs a leader, a serious public tension, the readiness of the population. We see that everything is bad enough with the leaders, but rather the population is faced with the question of survival. Moreover, the most active part of it has already left. Another thing is that a revolution of the elites can happen, ”the political scientist admitted.

He believes that a coup with the help of the armed forces, the oligarchy, is more likely. That is, the revolution is at the level of law enforcement agencies. Therefore, Levi is sure, Zelensky is so closely following the actions of the security forces, periodically organizing reshuffles in order to prevent the emergence of a new group.

Revolution of the elites

“The question is which elites can start the revolution. I see three possible scenarios,” the source said to Lenta.ru. — First of all, we have economic elites. It is obvious that in the conditions of martial law with the economy, in any case, everything will be bad, it is collapsing. So this part of the elites will want the end of hostilities at any cost and the restoration of economic relations. Such a scenario will not suit the political elite categorically.”

According to Levy, what is happening is being endured by the security forces. They are waiting for a compromise, giving signals that the military campaign is lost, but this again does not correlate with the position of the political elites, who are ready to fight to the bitter end at any cost.

This is not good for the military elite, because they understand that they will have to continue to exist. And the political one knows that in case of defeat it will simply cease to exist. Tomorrow does not exist for her

Dmitry Levipolitologist

“So, the economic elite is now the weakest, but they are interested in stopping hostilities as soon as possible and regaining control over their property and assets. In turn, the masses of the people in the potential revolution will be just an inactive tool, ready to go wherever the elites lead them. But it is felt that until mid-autumn they took a wait-and-see attitude and are waiting for the situation to unfold further, ”the political scientist believes.

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X-TREME LAX

About Us

Clinics

Contact Us

Thrilled with the team size… really optimizes playing time — excellent coaching — advanced skill-specific coaching — Coaches have taken a personal interest in my daughters’ development.

While the team is new, they were able to improve as each game went on. We believe this comes from the coaching. The coaches kept the atmosphere very positive and our daughter had an excellent experience with her first tournament with this club.

Sign up today.

Elite Lacrosse Club Benefits – Triple Threat Elite Lacrosse

Our Strategy Is To Lay The Foundation Of Training To Succeed As A Way Of Life

Player Development

Shake School Sponsored Club Benefits

Recruiting Support

Goalies

Elite All-Star Teams

Elite on the background of defeats. Where is the split in the Russian leadership

In anticipation of the inevitable

Realist pole

The escalation pole

The scenarios of the revolution in Ukraine are described: Ukraine: Former USSR: Lenta.ru

Local politics

New Maidan?

Revolution of the elites

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