Will Your March Madness Bracket Survive the Upsets. March Madness 2023: Bubble Teams and Upset Predictions for Your Bracket

Which teams are on the bubble for March Madness 2023. How to predict upsets in your bracket. Why do 12 and 13 seeds often beat higher-ranked teams. What factors contribute to Cinderella runs in the NCAA tournament.

Table of Contents

The Unpredictable Nature of First Four Play-In Games

March Madness begins with the First Four play-in games, setting the stage for unexpected outcomes. These games feature the last four at-large teams selected and the four lowest automatic qualifiers. The close matchups often result in nail-biting finishes, as evidenced by the 2022 tournament where #16 seeds Texas Southern and Wright State emerged victorious in tight contests.

Why do First Four winners often carry momentum into the main tournament? The answer lies in their recent competitive experience and the confidence boost from an early win. These teams enter the first round battle-tested and ready to face higher-seeded opponents, potentially leading to bracket-busting upsets.

Potential Cinderella Stories from the First Four

As we look ahead to the 2023 tournament, several teams could emerge as Cinderella stories from the First Four. Keep an eye on mid-major conference champions who narrowly made the cut, as well as power conference teams that squeaked into the tournament. These squads often play with a chip on their shoulder, eager to prove they belong in the Big Dance.

Mid-Major Conference Champions: The Underdogs to Watch

When the bracket is revealed, it’s crucial to identify under-seeded mid-major teams capable of early upsets. The 2023 field will likely include several experienced teams from smaller conferences ready to make their mark on the college basketball world.

Which conferences typically produce dangerous double-digit seeds? The West Coast Conference, Missouri Valley Conference, and Horizon League have historically fielded teams that can shock power program opponents. Their unique playing styles often catch higher-seeded teams off guard, as demonstrated by #15 seed Oral Roberts’ stunning victory over Ohio State in 2021.

Mid-Major Teams with Upset Potential

Gonzaga (West Coast Conference)
Loyola Chicago (Missouri Valley Conference)
Cleveland State (Horizon League)
New Mexico State (Western Athletic Conference)
Vermont (America East Conference)

Power Conference Bubble Teams: Hungry for Success

Bubble teams from major conferences often provide some of the most exciting opening weekend upsets. Schools like Texas A&M, Memphis, and Utah State are vying for spots in the field of 68, and their determination to validate their inclusion can fuel surprising runs.

How have bubble teams performed in recent tournaments? We’ve witnessed teams like Syracuse, UCLA, and Michigan State make deep March runs after receiving one of the last at-large bids. These schools often play with a sense of urgency and freedom, having already survived the pressure of the bubble.

Factors Contributing to Bubble Team Success

Motivation to prove their worth
Experience against top-tier competition
Underdog mentality
Less pressure as a lower seed
Battle-tested through conference play

The 12-5 and 13-4 Upset Phenomenon: Why It Happens

Recent March Madness history suggests that #12 and #13 seeds are prime candidates for first-round upsets. In 10 of the last 14 tournaments, at least one #13 seed has won a first-round game, while #12 seeds have pulled off major upsets in 9 of the last 14 tournaments.

Why do these particular matchups so often result in upsets? Several factors contribute to this phenomenon:

Underestimation by higher seeds
Motivation of teams that narrowly missed higher seeding
Stylistic mismatches between teams from different conferences
Pressure on favored teams to avoid early exits

Teams like New Mexico State or South Dakota State could be poised to continue this trend and reach the second weekend of the 2023 tournament.

The Impact of Elite Guards on Cinderella Runs

When identifying potential Cinderella teams, pay close attention to mid-major squads with exceptional guard play. Recent tournament history has shown that a hot-shooting, high-scoring guard can propel their team to improbable upsets.

Who are some examples of guards who have led their teams on surprising runs? Players like Ja Morant (Murray State), Jon Elmore (Marshall), and Fletcher Magee (Wofford) have single-handedly dismantled brackets with their stellar performances. In 2023, keep an eye on dynamic guards like Jordan Walker from UAB, who could be the next mid-major star to make waves in March.

Characteristics of Tournament-Changing Guards

Exceptional scoring ability
Strong leadership skills
Clutch performance under pressure
Ability to create for teammates
Experience in high-stakes games

The Importance of Defense in Tournament Success

While offensive firepower often grabs headlines, consistent defensive play is crucial for underdogs looking to make deep tournament runs. Teams like Saint Peter’s, Loyola Chicago, and Florida Gulf Coast have relied on swarming defense during their Cinderella journeys.

How does strong defense contribute to upset victories? Forcing turnovers, altering shots, and limiting transition opportunities can keep games close for underdogs, allowing them to stay competitive against more talented opponents. Squads like Cleveland State and New Mexico State, known for their defense-first mentalities, could be primed for bracket-shaking wins in 2023.

Key Defensive Strategies for Upset-Minded Teams

Aggressive on-ball pressure
Active help defense
Rebounding to limit second-chance opportunities
Disrupting offensive rhythm
Slowing the pace to control tempo

Additional Factors Influencing March Madness Upsets

While talent and strategy play significant roles in tournament success, several other factors can influence which teams pull off surprising victories:

Injuries and Team Health

How do injuries impact a team’s tournament chances? Late-season injuries to key players can derail a team’s momentum or create opportunities for underdogs to exploit weaknesses. Conversely, teams getting healthy at the right time may be underseeded and primed for a run.

Momentum and Recent Performance

Does a team’s performance leading up to the tournament matter? Teams that finish the regular season strong or make deep runs in their conference tournaments often carry that momentum into March Madness. Look for squads that are peaking at the right time, regardless of their overall record.

Coaching Experience and Adaptability

How much does coaching influence tournament success? Experienced coaches who have navigated the pressures of March Madness before can provide a significant advantage. Additionally, coaches who can make in-game adjustments and prepare for multiple opponents on short notice are valuable assets in the fast-paced tournament environment.

Tournament Experience and Poise

Do veteran teams have an edge in March? Teams with players who have previously competed in the NCAA Tournament often display more poise in high-pressure situations. This experience can be particularly valuable for mid-major teams facing powerhouse programs.

Strategies for Identifying Potential Bracket Busters

As you fill out your bracket for the 2023 tournament, consider these strategies for identifying potential upset winners:

Research conference strength and regular-season performance
Analyze key statistical metrics (e.g., offensive efficiency, defensive rating)
Consider stylistic matchups between opponents
Evaluate strength of schedule and quality wins
Look for teams with standout individual performers
Consider historical performance of seeds and conferences

Remember, while favorites like Kansas, Alabama, and Houston will garner much attention, the real excitement of March Madness often comes from the unexpected successes of underdogs and Cinderella stories.

The One-Bid Conference Threat: Auto-Bid Winners to Watch

Beyond the mid-major conference champions, auto-bid winners from one-bid conferences have a history of pulling off first-round upsets. These teams, often overlooked due to their lesser-known conferences, can be dangerous opponents for higher-seeded teams.

Which one-bid conference winners have a track record of tournament success? Teams like New Mexico State, South Dakota State, and Vermont have consistently performed well as underdogs. These squads typically dominate their conferences and enter the tournament battle-tested and confident.

Characteristics of Successful One-Bid Teams

Experienced rosters with upperclassmen leadership
Strong team chemistry developed over a successful regular season
Unique playing styles that may be unfamiliar to power conference opponents
High-scoring offenses or stifling defenses that translate well to tournament play
Coaches with previous NCAA Tournament experience

The Role of Three-Point Shooting in March Madness Upsets

Three-point shooting can be a great equalizer in tournament play, allowing underdog teams to stay competitive with more talented opponents. A hot-shooting team can overcome talent disparities and pull off stunning upsets.

How does three-point proficiency impact tournament games? Teams that rely heavily on the three-point shot can be high-risk, high-reward options in your bracket. When the shots are falling, these teams can beat anyone. However, a cold shooting night can lead to quick exits.

Notable Three-Point Shooting Performances in Tournament History

Loyola Chicago’s Clayton Custer in 2018
Stephen Curry’s Davidson run in 2008
Ali Farokhmanesh’s Northern Iowa upset over Kansas in 2010
Florida Gulf Coast’s “Dunk City” team in 2013
Villanova’s record-setting performance in the 2018 National Championship

The Impact of Tournament Location on Upsets

While often overlooked, the location of tournament games can play a significant role in determining upsets. Teams playing close to home often benefit from increased fan support and reduced travel fatigue.

How does the NCAA consider geography when seeding teams? The selection committee attempts to keep higher-seeded teams closer to home, but this isn’t always possible. As a result, some lower-seeded teams may find themselves with a virtual home-court advantage in early rounds.

Factors to Consider Regarding Tournament Locations

Distance from a team’s home campus
Potential for strong alumni presence in the area
Familiarity with the arena or city
Climate differences (e.g., warm-weather teams playing in colder locations)
Time zone changes affecting player routines

The Psychological Aspect of March Madness Upsets

The mental game plays a crucial role in March Madness, often separating successful Cinderella stories from early exits. Understanding the psychological factors at play can help in predicting potential upsets.

How does the pressure of the tournament affect different teams? Higher-seeded teams often feel the weight of expectations, which can lead to tight performances in close games. Conversely, lower-seeded teams may play with a sense of freedom and looseness, allowing them to perform at their best when it matters most.

Psychological Factors Influencing Tournament Performance

Confidence from conference tournament success
Underdog mentality and desire to prove doubters wrong
Experience in high-pressure situations
Team cohesion and trust in teammates
Ability to handle the national spotlight

The Role of Tempo and Pace in Tournament Upsets

The pace at which a game is played can significantly impact the likelihood of an upset. Teams that can control the tempo and force their preferred style of play often find success in the tournament, regardless of their seed.

How do different tempos affect upset potential? Slower-paced games tend to favor underdogs by reducing possessions and keeping scores close. Conversely, up-tempo styles can lead to higher variance in outcomes, potentially benefiting skilled lower seeds capable of scoring in bunches.

Strategies for Controlling Game Tempo

Deliberate offensive possessions to slow the pace
Aggressive full-court press to speed up opponents
Effective transition defense to prevent easy baskets
Strategic use of timeouts to disrupt rhythm
Foul management to control clock and possessions

The Importance of Free Throw Shooting in Close Games

In tightly contested tournament games, free throw shooting often becomes a decisive factor. Teams proficient from the charity stripe can close out games and secure upsets, while poor free throw shooting can lead to squandered opportunities.

How much do free throws impact tournament outcomes? In the pressure-cooker environment of March Madness, even typically reliable free throw shooters can struggle. Teams that maintain their composure at the line in crucial moments gain a significant advantage.

Notable Free Throw Performances in Tournament History

Gordon Hayward’s missed free throw in the 2010 National Championship
Villanova’s perfect free throw shooting against North Carolina in the 2016 title game
Kentucky’s struggles at the line in their 2015 Final Four loss to Wisconsin
Syracuse’s clutch free throws to upset Virginia in the 2016 Elite Eight
Michigan’s missed free throws contributing to their loss to Louisville in the 2013 National Championship

The Impact of Conference Strength on Tournament Performance

The strength of a team’s conference can be both a blessing and a curse when it comes to tournament performance. Teams from power conferences are battle-tested but may be overseeded, while mid-major conference champions could be underestimated.

How does conference affiliation influence tournament success? Teams from stronger conferences benefit from facing high-level competition throughout the season, preparing them for the rigors of March Madness. However, this can also lead to fatigue or inflated perceptions of their abilities.

Factors to Consider When Evaluating Conference Strength

Overall conference RPI or NET ranking
Number of teams receiving tournament bids
Performance in non-conference play
Historical tournament success of conference members
Strength of conference tournament

As the 2023 NCAA Tournament approaches, keep these factors in mind when filling out your bracket. While favorites like Kansas, Alabama, and Houston will rightfully garner attention, the true excitement of March Madness often lies in the unexpected successes of underdogs and Cinderella stories. By carefully considering the various elements that contribute to tournament upsets, you can increase your chances of predicting the next big surprise in college basketball’s premier event.

The First Four Play-In Games Are Always Unpredictable

March Madness kicks off with the First Four play-in games, which always seem to provide some unexpected fireworks. These games feature the last four at-large teams selected to the tournament, as well as the four lowest automatic qualifiers. The matchups are usually pretty even, leading to down-to-the-wire finishes. In 2022, we saw #16 seeds Texas Southern and Wright State advance in close games. The play-in winners often carry that momentum into upsets in the first round. Who could be this year’s Cinderella emerging from the First Four?

Mid-Major Conference Champions Capable of Pulling Off Upsets

Once the bracket is announced, it’s essential to scan for under-seeded mid-major teams that could bust your bracket early on. The 2023 field is sure to include several experienced teams from smaller conferences eager to shock the college basketball world. Dangerous double-digit seeds to watch for include the champions from conferences like the West Coast, Missouri Valley, and Horizon League. Their style of play is not something the power programs often see, so they can catch opponents off guard. If you recall, it was #15 seed Oral Roberts stunning Ohio State in 2021’s first round.

Power Conference Bubble Teams With Something to Prove

The bubble teams sweating out Selection Sunday often provide some of the best opening weekend upsets. Schools like Texas A&M, Memphis, and Utah State are expecting to land spots in the field of 68. With a chip on their shoulder and pressure to validate their inclusion, these schools from major conferences can win a game or two. We’ve seen bubble teams like Syracuse, UCLA, and Michigan State make surprising March runs after getting one of the last at-large bids.

Why the #12 and #13 Seeds Always Seem to Upset a #5

Recent March Madness history suggests you should keep a close eye on the #12 and #13 seeds when filling out your bracket. In 10 of the last 14 tournaments, at least one #13 seed has won a first round game. #12 seeds have pulled off a major upset in 9 of the last 14 Big Dances as well. These just barely missed out on the top 4 seed lines. With something to prove, the #12/#13 seeds match up well against complacent #5 seeds in 5 vs. 12 or 4 vs. 13 contests. Don’t be shocked if a team like New Mexico State or South Dakota State reaches the second weekend.

Guards That Can Take Over Games Lead to Surprise Sweet 16 Runs

When scanning for potential Cinderellas, look for mid-major teams with electric guard play. Recent March history has shown us that a hot-shooting, high-scoring guard can will their team to improbable upsets. We’re talking players like Ja Morant (Murray State), Jon Elmore (Marshall) and Fletcher Magee (Wofford). If a skilled lead guard gets hot for a game or two, they can single-handedly destroy brackets. A potential candidate this year could be Jordan Walker from UAB.

Defense Travels Well When Underdogs Try to Pull Upsets

While offensive firepower is important for surprise tournament runs, consistent defensive play travels better in March. Teams like Saint Peter’s, Loyola Chicago, and Florida Gulf Coast leaned on swarming defense during their Cinderella journeys. Forcing turnovers, altering shots, and limiting transition opportunities can keep games close for underdogs. Squads like Cleveland State and New Mexico State have defense-first mentalities that could lead to bracket-shaking wins.

Injuries, momentum, coaching, and more all factor into which bubble teams and mid-majors have what it takes to author a March Madness upset. While favorites like Kansas, Alabama and Houston will get most of the hype, dig deeper for those bracket-busting bubbles and Cinderellas. The 2023 dance is sure to see a #12 or #13 emerge for a Sweet 16 run, so choose wisely!

Which Mid-Majors Could Pull Off Big Upsets Early On?

The beauty of March Madness is that small schools from obscure conferences can take down basketball giants on the sport’s biggest stage. When looking for potential first round bracket busters, be sure to highlight teams from the one-bid mid-major leagues. These teams have likely dominated their conferences and are battle-tested.

The champions from the Missouri Valley, Horizon League, West Coast Conference and more could be primed for upsets. Consider Wichita State and Loyola Chicago from the Valley, or Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s out west. The Horizon has produced shockers like Cleveland State and Oral Roberts recently. These teams aren’t household names but have the talent and experience to win a game or two.

Don’t Sleep on the Hungry Auto-Bid Winners

In addition to the mid-major champions, the other one-bid conference winners have a knack for first round upsets. We’re talking teams like New Mexico State, South Dakota State, and Vermont. These schools know that unless they win their conference tourney, they have no chance to dance. The auto-bid underdogs are often older, physical squads eager to make the most of their one shining moment.

Underdogs With a Chip on Their Shoulder

Part of what makes the first weekend so unpredictable is that certain mid-majors teams feel slighted by their low seeds. Maybe a strong squad like Murray State or Belmont gets stuck with a #12 seed. Teams like this are dangerous, as they feel underestimated and play with a chip on their shoulder. With the right matchup, these experienced and hungry teams no one is talking about could bust brackets.

When Star Players Catch Fire

March Madness has seen countless star players from smaller schools leave their mark on the game’s biggest stage. All it takes is 2-3 unforgettable performances for lesser-known studs to etch their name in tourney lore. We’re talking players like Steph Curry (Davidson), Ja Morant (Murray State) and C.J. McCollum (Lehigh). If a mid-major star has a Coming Out Party in March, major upsets ensue.

Why Coaching Matters for Cinderellas

Another key factor to assess when picking potential opening round upsets is coaching experience. The top mid-major programs often have an established coach who has been there awhile. These coaches have systems and styles that trip up opponents. Mark Few (Gonzaga), Gregg Marshall (Wichita State) and Porter Moser (Loyola Chicago) have orchestrated upsets.

In addition to the mid-major teams looking to crash the party, don’t forget about the last 4 at-large teams sweating it out on Selection Sunday. The First Four features hungry major conference bubble teams starving for validation. March is always full of surprises, so choose your upsets wisely!

Sleepers From Major Conferences That Could Make Noise

As the 2023 NCAA Tournament approaches, college basketball fans are busy filling out their March Madness brackets. While powerhouse teams like Kansas, Houston, and Alabama are safe bets to go deep, there are always a few under-the-radar teams that surprise everyone with upset wins and Cinderella runs.

These “bracket busters” typically come from mid-major conferences, but occasionally a team from a major conference will emerge as an unlikely contender. Here are some potential sleeper teams from the biggest conferences to keep an eye on when making your 2023 March Madness predictions.

SEC – Florida

The SEC is top heavy this season with dominant teams like Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas. But don’t sleep on Florida. The Gators have struggled with consistency in conference play, but have shown flashes of brilliance. They took Tennessee down to the wire and beat ranked teams like Florida State early on. Colin Castleton is a force inside averaging over 16 points and 7 rebounds per game. True freshman Riley Kugel has provided a spark off the bench. And point guard Kyle Lofton – a transfer from St. Bonaventure – brings valuable experience having reached the NCAA Tournament twice with his former team. Florida may be squarely on the bubble, but they have the pieces to make a surprise March run.

Big Ten – Michigan State

At just 5-7 in Quad 1 opportunities, Michigan State is far from a lock for the Big Dance. But with March comes the Izzo factor. Legendary coach Tom Izzo has led the Spartans to 8 Final Fours and knows how to prepare his team for the big stage. Senior forward Malik Hall missed significant time with injury but made his return in February, providing a much needed boost. Transfer guard Tyson Walker is a pesky perimeter defender. And freshman Jaxon Kohler has come on strong late in Big Ten play. With plenty of tournament experience, this seasoned Spartans squad could be dangerous in March.

Pac-12 – Arizona State

The Pac-12 doesn’t have any dominant teams this season, leaving the door open for a surprise squad to take the conference crown. Arizona State has been up and down but has proven they can compete with the league’s best, with wins over rival Arizona and conference leader UCLA. Transfers Desmond Cambridge Jr. (Nevada) and Warren Washington (Nevada) provide scoring and rebounding. Sophomore guard Austin Nunez has made strides as a playmaker. And head coach Bobby Hurley knows how to coach in March, having led Buffalo to the NCAA tournament twice as a 12 and 13 seed. The Sun Devils are firmly on the bubble, but their athleticism and guard play could fuel a March surprise.

Big 12 – West Virginia

The Big 12 is another conference without a clear frontrunner, though Kansas and Texas would be the favorites. But Bob Huggins and West Virginia thrive in March when physicality and defense win out. The Mountaineers play grind-it-out basketball and have proven capable of beating elite teams, with wins over Auburn, Iowa State, and Arkansas. Forwards Tre Mitchell and Emmitt Matthews provide scoring, while point guard Kedrian Johnson is a pesky on-ball defender. If they secure a tournament bid, their slow tempo and stingy defense could frustrate opponents. Don’t be shocked if Huggins engineers another March surprise.

ACC – Syracuse

Syracuse is no stranger to March Madness success, with coach Jim Boeheim reaching 5 Final Fours over his career. But this season, the Orange are squarely on the bubble after an inconsistent ACC slate. Still, their trademark 2-3 zone defense can wreak havoc on unsuspecting opponents, they have a star in guard Joe Girard, and the return of Jesse Edwards provides interior scoring. The Orange also have big game experience, taking tournament teams like Illinois, Notre Dame, and Virginia to the wire. If the brothers Boeheim (Buddy is an assistant) can get this young squad into the dance, Syracuse’s tempo and defense could once again translate to upsets.

Other potential sleeper teams to keep an eye on include Dayton in the Atlantic 10, Utah State in the Mountain West, and New Mexico in Conference USA. But if you’re looking for underdogs from major conferences, these six teams from the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, Big 12, and ACC have the ingredients for surprise March Madness runs. Don’t let your bracket be busted by overlooking these dangerous sleepers.

When filling out your March Madness predictions, it’s wise to sprinkle in a few of these under-the-radar teams primed for upsets. Pay attention to teams like Florida, Michigan State, Arizona State, West Virginia, and Syracuse that have the coaching, defense, and guard play to pull off bracket busting surprises. And if you’re looking for that perfect Cinderella pick, stay tuned as the conference tournaments wrap up, and more bubble teams try to secure those last NCAA bids. March is nearly here, so get ready for madness!

Why a #12 or #13 Seed Always Seems To Make the Sweet 16

March Madness is known for its exciting upsets, with Cinderella teams busting brackets each year. And it seems like every tournament, at least one plucky #12 or #13 seed fights its way to the Sweet 16 round.

This phenomenon has become a rite of March. Despite the long odds, a double digit seed always manages to dance its way through the first weekend. So what is it about these lower seeded teams that make them ripe for surprising tourney runs?

They’re Underdogs With Nothing to Lose

Part of what makes a #12 or #13 seed dangerous is they come into the tournament with zero pressure and everything to gain. Often from smaller conferences, they feel overlooked and eager to prove they belong with the big boys. This underdog mentality gives them the freedom to play loose and aggressive right from the opening tip.

Meanwhile their heavily favored first round opponent, usually a #4 or #5 seed from a power conference, has the weight of expectations on their shoulders. This role reversal allows the lower seed to stun a favored yet tight and nervous opponent. And just like that, a bracket busting upset is born.

Matchup Problems Against Complacent Favorites

When power conference teams earn a #4 or #5 seed, they often feel disappointed to be so low. This can lead to a lackadaisical effort as they sulk about not getting the seed they deserve. Meanwhile, the #12 or #13 seed comes ready to empty the tank. This enthusiasm gap allows the underdog to jump out early and dictate tempo.

Additionally, the personnel of the lower seeded team can create matchup issues the favorite is unprepared for. Double digit seeds with sharp shooting guards, disruptive defenders, or dominant big men can exploit complacent higher seeds that overlooked them.

Momentun From Play-In Game Victories

Since 2011, the tournament has included “First Four” play-in games between the lowest seeds. This gives #12 and #13 seeds a chance to get a game under their belt before facing their first round opponent. Winning an opening game builds confidence and momentum that carries over.

Meanwhile, the #4 or #5 seed is sitting dormant for over a week since their conference tournament. The rust and layoff allows the hot play-in winner to seize early control of the game before the favorite finds their rhythm.

Experienced Coaching

Double digit seeds that pull off upsets are typically well coached teams that execute. Coaches like Kermit Davis, Kevin Willard, and Ritchie McKay have engineered tourney shockers before. They have roadmaps for strategically taking down blue blood programs and getting their players to buy in.

These experienced coaches also have the motivational skills to convince their team they are March Madness worthy despite the low seed. They typically ride a seasoned starting lineup playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Moment Seizing Seniors

Senior led teams are always dangerous in March. Upperclassmen who have played in the Big Dance before don’t get overwhelmed by the magnitude. They cherish the opportunity knowing it’s their last chance to make a run.

Low major programs with a veteran starting five built for the tourney can topple more talented but youthful power conference squads. Their experience and urgency gives them an edge that compensates for any talent discrepancy.

So when you see those #12 and #13 seeds announced on Selection Sunday, don’t immediately write them off. There are clear reasons why one of them almost always crashes the Sweet 16. If a seasoned coach can rally his experienced squad and exploit any complacency from their opponent, March Madness chaos will surely ensue.

The opening weekend of the tournament will be here before we know it. A clever bracket picker may just be able to identify that one double digit seed ready to become this year’s Cinderella. So beware of those frisky #12 and #13 seeds, because one of them is certain bust your bracket in a few short weeks!

The Importance of Guard Play In March Madness

The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. When filling out brackets, most fans look to the obvious powerhouses led by star big men. But more often than not, March Madness is dominated by teams with elite backcourt talent. History shows guard play is crucial to making a deep tourney run.

From hitting clutch shots under pressure to breaking presses and initiating offense, guards set the tone in the do-or-die intensity of the Big Dance. Their ball handling, shooting, passing, and leadership become magnified on the big stage. Let’s look at why stout guard play so often determines who advances in March.

Breaking the Press

The increased defensive pressure of the NCAA Tournament means teams rely heavily on full court presses to speed opponents up. This amplifies the importance of ball handlers who can break the press and initiate the offense.

Guards who struggle against ball pressure can lead to turnovers and easy transition buckets. But seasoned lead guards thrive when defenses intensify, breaking down full court pressure to get their team into offensive sets.

Initiating the Offense

Efficiency in the half court relies on guards who make the right reads running the offense. Floor generals who understand time and score situations, execute sets, and create for others are invaluable in March.

Teams with guards who play sloppy or force bad shots often have short tournaments. But controlled initiators who get their team into the flow of the offense give their team the best chance to advance.

Perimeter Shooting

In the NCAA Tournament, defenses tighten and the pace of games slow in the half court. This shrinks the driving lanes for guards and places a premium on perimeter shooting to space the floor.

Teams that can knock down outside shots at a high clip have a major advantage in March. Shooting opens their offense and forces defenses to extend. Gaurds who stretch the defense with dead-eye shooting are absolutely vital.

Isolation Scoring

To make a March run, teams need guards who can create their own shot against tight defense in isolation sets. The ability to break down a defender one-on-one is critical late in tournament games.

Guards who can score in crunch time draw extra defensive attention, opening things up for teammates. Dynamic isolation scorers are the lifeblood of any squad looking to advance deep.

Drawing Fouls

In close tournament battles, earning trips to the free throw line is often the difference between winning and losing. Guards who can force contact off the dribble and control draws are incredibly valuable.

Not only do they put opponents in foul trouble, but they get easy points at the stripe. Guards with a knack for drawing whistles make a massive impact in the grind-it-out nature of March.

There is no question that talented big men anchor championship contenders. But more times than not, teams with elite backcourt play cut down the nets in March. Ball handlers, shooters, creators, and leaders at the guard spots lift their teams in the pressure cooker environment of the Big Dance.

So when making your bracket picks, be sure to examine the guards on each roster. Do they tick all the boxes needed for March success? If so, circle that team as one with serious upset potential. Because as we’ve seen time and again, guard play rules March.

Consistent Teams Built On Defense Rarely Get Upset Early

As the craziness of March Madness approaches, one thing is certain – upsets will happen. Cinderella stories emerge, brackets get busted, and each year there are teams that shock the college basketball world by knocking off a powerhouse early in the tournament. However, while upsets are part of what makes March Madness so exciting, not all teams are created equal when it comes to avoiding being on the wrong side of one.

The teams that tend to avoid getting upset early on are those that have built consistently strong defensive identities over the course of the season. Defense travels well in March, when shooting percentages dip and every possession takes on added importance. Teams that lock in defensively and control the pace of play can mitigate risk, as defense is far less prone to the extremes of hot and cold shooting performances.

A prime example of this was the 2018-19 Virginia Cavaliers, who entered the tournament as the overall 1 seed on the strength of their suffocating pack line defense. While their offense sputtered at times, their defense never wavered, holding opponents to just 55 points per game. They consistently generated stops when needed, made possessions a grind, and ultimately survived an offensive drought late in the championship game to secure the title.

The 2021-22 Houston Cougars followed a similar blueprint, ranking top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency, opponents’ field goal percentage, and points allowed per game. Despite some offensive struggles in the Elite 8 against Villanova, Houston got clutch stops down the stretch and advanced thanks to their defensive foundation.

Contrast these teams with squads lacking defensive cohesion, who become vulnerable regardless of seeding. The 2018-19 North Carolina Tar Heels were loaded with NBA talent, but inconsistent defense and reliance on a fast pace backfired when Auburn lit them up for 97 points in a Sweet 16 stunner. Similarly, the 2021-22 Kentucky Wildcats oozed with prospects but struggled to get stops, allowing 79+ points in 3 of their 4 tournament games which led to a disappointing early exit.

The data backs this up, as teams rated highly in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency have lower upset rates than those lacking defensive prowess. And the deeper a strong defensive team advances, the more their identity holds up under pressure compared to offense-first squads.

So when looking for reliable Final Four picks and bracket cornerstones, lean toward teams with proven defensive track records. Offense comes and goes, but defense travels anywhere and everywhere in March. Teams like the 2023 Purdue Boilermakers, Kansas State Wildcats, and Texas Longhorns have shown the necessary ingredients – rim protection, perimeter defense, defensive rebounding, and ability to dictate pace and grind out stops. Relying on these foundations should lead to fewer early round upsets.

In the tournament’s opening weekend, chaos reigns and anything can happen. But disciplined, defense-first teams have proven most adept at weathering that storm. Teams that consistently get stops have a tendency to avoid getting stopped prematurely themselves. So if your bracket hopes to survive and advance past the upsets, make sure to bet on defense.

Key Takeaways

Upsets are inevitable in March Madness, but strong defensive teams are better equipped to avoid them.
Controlling pace of play and generating stops is critical in the tournament when offensive efficiency dips.
Recent champions like Virginia and Houston have relied on elite defense to navigate upsets.
Defense travels well and holds up better under pressure compared to offense-first teams.
Teams like Purdue, Kansas State and Texas have the defensive identities to go deep this March.

How Injuries Can Derail a Highly Seeded Team

A successful March Madness run requires a delicate alchemy of talent, chemistry, and luck coming together at just the right time. Perhaps nothing can disrupt that formula more than a key injury. When a star player goes down or the rotation gets shortened, even the most finely-tuned teams can spiral.

Look no further than the 2022 defending champion Baylor Bears. They entered last year’s tourney as a 1 seed powered by a trio of elite guards in James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer. But Cryer’s nagging foot injury flared up, and without his floor spacing and shot creation, Baylor’s offense cratered in a second round upset loss to 8 seed UNC.

Injuries plagued the 2021 Iowa Hawkeyes in similar fashion. They earned a 2 seed behind the electric play of star big man Luka Garza and sharpshooter Joe Wieskamp. But in their second round defeat, Wieskamp was hobbled and ineffective, unable to provide his usual scoring punch. This allowed 7 seed Oregon’s zone defense to key on Garza, whose struggles cascaded through Iowa’s entire offensive flow.

The 2019 North Carolina Tar Heels were uniquely vulnerable to health issues with their reliance on a short rotation. When valued sixth man Kenny Williams hurt his hamstring during the tournament, UNC was forced out of their comfort zone and never fully recovered, falling to Auburn in the Sweet 16.

Unlike the grind of the regular season, there is no time to adjust in the single elimination setting of March Madness. Games come fast and furious, and every player’s contribution becomes magnified. One injury or absence can shrink a team’s margin for error from slim to none.

This reality makes health one of the biggest X-factors every year – no matter the seeding, talent level or coaching. Kansas’ 2022 championship run likely doesn’t happen if not for super-senior Remy Martin getting healthy after missing significant time. Villanova escaping upset bids in 2018 hinged on Phil Booth fighting through injuries. Every title has an injury luck component.

So when evaluating a squad’s Final Four potential this March, depth and durability need careful examination. Banking on teams like Purdue and Houston with multiple battle-tested options seems safer than Texas or Alabama whose success relies on more fragile formulas.

For highly seeded teams, health can be the fine line between fulfilling expectations and going down as a massive bust. All teams will suffer bumps and bruises during the grueling tournament. But avoiding or absorbing a severe injury could make all the difference.

The seeds say one thing in March, but luck and health often have the final say. Avoid picking overly top-heavy teams, and recognize that health is a prerequisite for any deep run. Because in March Madness, the only sure things are upsets and injuries playing their unpredictable part.

Key Takeaways:

Injuries derailed defending champ Baylor and 2 seed Iowa recently in March Madness.
Losing even one key player disrupts finely tuned rotations and margins for error.
Health becomes even more crucial in the urgency of single elimination tournament games.
Depth and durability are underrated factors to examine when predicting upsets.
Fragile formulas reliant on star power are vulnerable to health-driven upsets.

Why Momentum Heading Into March Matters More Than Overall Record

As Selection Sunday approaches, much debate ensues over team resumes and whether their overall body of work warrants a bid and seeding. However, there may be no more important factor than a team’s momentum and how they are performing late in the season heading into March Madness.

Recent history shows teams that build momentum late, despite worse overall records, can ride hot streaks deep in the tournament. Take the 2014 UConn Huskies, who squeaked into the field at 26-8 but entered on a white-hot streak punctuated by winning the AAC tournament. Seedings are just numbers in March and behind Shabazz Napier’s brilliance, UConn won it all as a 7 seed.

The most extreme example came in 2011, when UConn again got hot late after a 9-9 Big East regular season. Kemba Walker put the Huskies on his back through five wins in five days during the conference tournament, and they kept that momentum going all the way to the championship despite their middling overall resume.

Conversely, look at last year’s Kentucky team, who entered March with a 26-7 overall record but trending the wrong way after late seasonSEC struggles. Their poor finish foreshadowed a disappointing first round upset as a 2 seed to 15 seed Saint Peter’s despite appearing solid overall.

Regular season success provides important context, but college basketball is all about peaking when it matters most. Young teams gel, injuries heal, and lineups click at the perfect time. Catching that wave in March overrides big picture resume flaws.

Momentum indicates when teams are playing their best ball and are dangerous despite seeding. Riding a surge of confidence, chemistry and shot-making, hot teams pose huge upset risks no matter overall record.

This March, an inconsistent but talent-rich team like Alabama could get scorching hot and beat anyone. By contrast, purdue’s gaudy 29-win season might not matter if their late season stumbles spill into the tournament.

So don’t get blinded by body of work come tournament time. Find teams like Miami with talent coalescing at the right time. The numbers say one thing, but March momentum says another – and the latter matters most when Madness begins.

Key Takeaways:

Recent March winners like UConn have shown late momentum matters more than overall record.
Peaking when it counts overrides big picture resume flaws.
Hot streaks indicate teams playing their best ball poised for upsets.
Conversely, late season stumbles can foreshadow flops regardless of seeding.
Ride momentum teams in March over those with gaudy but misleading records.

Coaches Who Have a Knack For March Madness Upsets

March Madness is defined by upsets, where underdog teams take down Goliaths. While players make the baskets, coaches architect these epic bracket-busting wins through creative game plans and masterful motivational tactics. Certain bench bosses just have a penchant for getting teams to overperform when it matters most.

Gregg Marshall’s Wichita State teams were March giant killers, pulling off a long string of upsets. In 2013 they reached the Final Four as a 9 seed, shocking both the 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs and 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes along the way. Marshall had the magic touch getting overlooked teams to believe.

Mark Few and Gonzaga felt similar Cinderella-style wrath from the hands of 11 seed Loyola-Chicago and coach Porter Moser in 2018. Using smart scouting to exploit mismatches, Moser’s tactical mastery spawned an epic underdog run to the Final Four, taking down powerhouses like Kansas State.

Bob McKillop of Davidson has engineered upsets of college hoops royalty, none bigger than Steph Curry and the Wildcats toppling 3 seed Wisconsin in 2008 behind Curry’s tourney explosion. McKillop fosters an environment where anything seems possible.

And perhaps no coach has a knack for being on the right side of massive March Madness upsets like Sister Jean and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. After their 2018 run, they shocked national power Illinois again in 2021 as Coach Porter Moser continued unlocking that upset magic.

These coaches share common traits that translate to tournament success with overlooked teams. Meticulous game planning and savoring the underdog role fuels their players. They build self-belief and play loose, maximizing talent. And their savvy adjustments stem the tide against more skilled squads, enabling headline-grabbing wins.

So when picking potential bracket busters, look for the master motivators who’ve been there before. Coaches like McKillop, Moser and Few consistently spur their sides to levels even they didn’t know they could reach. That shock factor embodies the Madness.

Key Takeaways:

Gregg Marshall’s Wichita State and Mark Few’s Gonzaga have repeatedly sprung big upsets.
Bob McKillop led Steph Curry’s Davidson to multiple improbable wins over giants.
Porter Moser has Loyola-Chicago punching above their weight recently in March.
Master tacticians embrace the underdog role to fuel upset runs.
Savvy adjustments and motivation maximize talent to stun powerhouses.

Double Digit Seeds That Can’t Be Counted Out This Year

The 2023 NCAA Tournament is right around the corner, and that means it’s time to break out those brackets. While the top seeds dominate the headlines, it’s the bubble teams – those hovering around the cut line – that can make or break your March Madness predictions. This year, there are several double digit seeds that have the pedigree and talent to engineer an upset or two and wreak havoc on brackets nationwide.

Belmont Bruins

The sharpshooting Belmont Bruins out of the Ohio Valley Conference head into March Madness with a 25-7 record. Led by senior guard Ben Sheppard, Belmont ranks in the top 20 nationally in three-point percentage and are battle-tested thanks to several Power 5 opponents on their non-conference schedule. Their rapid-fire perimeter attack and pressure defense could spell trouble for an unsuspecting higher seed. With upset wins in two of their last four NCAA Tournament appearances, the Bruins have proven they won’t be intimidated under the bright lights of March.

New Mexico State Aggies

After dominating the WAC with a 15-1 conference record, the New Mexico State Aggies have their sights set on March Madness despite a first round exit last year. The Aggies are led by versatile forward Teddy Allen, whose 19 points per game paced the team. With three other double-digit scorers, New Mexico State has a balanced offensive attack. They also boast a stifling defense, ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. With a chip on their shoulder after last year’s early departure, the Aggies have the experience and talent to spring an upset and make a run.

Vermont Catamounts

Out of the America East Conference, the Vermont Catamounts enter March Madness with momentum, having won 17 straight down the stretch. They dominated their conference thanks to a deliberate offensive attack led by senior forward Ryan Davis. Additionally, Vermont boasts a stingy defense, holding opponents to just 61 points per game. While they lack NCAA Tournament experience compared to other bubble teams, Vermont is riding a wave of confidence from their flawless conference season. With the nation’s longest active winning streak, Vermont could claw out a win or two and dash some brackets.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks

Despite a first-round exit last March, the UNC Wilmington Seahawks are back and ready to make noise this time around. Winners of the CAA Tournament, UNCW boasts one of the most dynamic backcourts in Trazarien White and Maleeck Harden-Hayes who can score from all three levels. They have notched impressive wins over Power 5 squads like Clemson and standout mid-major opponents like Furman. With their fast-paced transition offense, UNCW has the horses to hang around and spring an upset on an unsuspecting favorite.

UNC Greensboro Spartans

After falling short in the SoCon Tournament finals, UNC Greensboro snuck into March Madness as an at-large bid. Despite inconsistent stretches during conference play, the Spartans have ample talent and postseason experience to threaten any opponent. Led by senior forward Keyshaun Langley, UNCG boasts a balanced offensive attack with four double-digit scorers. They also play tough team defense, ranking 45th nationally in defensive efficiency. With double-digit seeds having won at least one game in 7 of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, don’t sleep on these battle-tested Spartans.

Iona Gaels

Back in the NCAA Tournament after a one-year hiatus, Iona and Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino could be poised to shake things up. Despite up-and-down stretches, star guard Elijah Joiner leads four double-digit scorers for the Gaels’ efficient offense. Additionally, their three-point shooting prowess helps them spread the floor and create mismatches. While they lack depth and have struggled on the road this season, Iona has enough talent at the top of their roster and sideline to hang tough. With Pitino’s knack for coaching underdogs, Iona could author an inspiring March story.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

After cruising through the Summit League regular season and tournament, South Dakota State enters March Madness with eyes on their first NCAA Tournament victory. While they lack size inside, the Jackrabbits are loaded with firepower in senior guard Baylor Scheierman, a versatile inside-outside threat averaging 16 points and eight rebounds per game. With additional scoring pop from Zeke Mayo and Matt Dentlinger, South Dakota State spaces the floor and moves the ball efficiently. If their long-range shooting travels to the Big Dance, South Dakota State could be ready to hop past favorites.

Boise State Broncos

Despite entering March Madness having lost five of their last seven, Boise State boasts enough talent and experience to threaten as a double-digit seed. Led by star guard Marcus Shaver Jr., the Broncos feature an explosive offensive attack, with three players averaging over 13 points per game. They also excel on the defensive end, forcing turnovers and limiting opponents’ three-point efficiency. While they’ve struggled with consistency, Boise State has proven they can compete with the nation’s top teams, knocking off Texas A&M, Oregon State, and Washington State. With March Madness ripe for upsets, don’t overlook the battle-tested Broncos.

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Just two years removed from their shocking Sweet 16 run, Oral Roberts seeks to rediscover their March magic. While their loss in the Summit League Tournament stings, the Golden Eagles have enough firepower to threaten opponents. Oral Roberts ranks in the top 20 nationally in three-pointers made, powered by guards Max Abmas and Issac McBride. They spread the floor and launch with volume from deep. While their defense is suspect at times, Oral Roberts can get hot from beyond the arc and their tournament experience makes them dangerous. With Abmas back to lead the attack, the Golden Eagles have their sights set on busting brackets again.

While the top seeds grab the headlines, don’t sleep on these capable double-digit seeds. With enough talent and pedigree to hang around, any of these bubble teams could engineer an upset or two and send brackets across the nation crumpling into ashes. By exceeding expectations and achieving March Madness glory, one of these underdogs could become the darling of this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Here is a 1000 word article on bubble teams potentially missing the NCAA Tournament field:

Will Any At-Large Teams Get Left Out of the Field?

Selection Sunday is nearing, and while the top teams have all but solidified their spots, there are several bubble teams sweating it out. The cut line for an at-large bid is never clearly defined, and the NCAA selection committee has some tough choices ahead. With only so many spots available, which fringe teams are most in danger of seeing their bubbles burst?

North Carolina Tar Heels

Despite their famed pedigree, the Tar Heels have limped through an inconsistent ACC schedule. Currently sitting at 18-11 overall and 10-8 in conference, North Carolina lacks big wins. They are just 3-9 against Quad 1 opponents and fell short against other bubble teams like Miami, Clemson and Pittsburgh. While the name on the front of their jerseys still carries weight, the Tar Heels’ mediocre resume could leave them on the wrong side of the bubble.

Oregon Ducks

Dana Altman has led Oregon to seven straight NCAA tournaments, but this year’s Ducks squad could see that streak snapped. At 15-14 overall and 9-9 in a down Pac-12, Oregon lacks signature wins and has some bad losses. Despite boasting talent like Will Richardson and N’Faly Dante, the Ducks are just 3-11 against Quad 1 teams. With an inflated NET ranking due to playing in a weak conference, Oregon may need to make noise in the Pac-12 Tournament to avoid missing March Madness.

Utah State Aggies

After running away with the Mountain West regular season crown at 14-4, Utah State seemed safely in the field. However, the Aggies were upset by San Diego State in their conference tournament, casting doubts. At 21-8 overall, Utah State beat Creighton early but lacks other quality wins. They are just 2-5 against Quad 1 opponents. Relying heavily on Mountain West competition has inflated their predictive metrics too. While they passed the eye test as conference champs, the Aggies might sweat things out on Selection Sunday.

Florida Atlantic Owls

One of this season’s mid-major darlings, Florida Atlantic throttled opponents in Conference USA play. But their shocking upset loss to UAB in the CUSA Tournament could position them squarely on the bubble. Despite a 24-3 overall record, Florida Atlantic is just 1-2 in Quad 1 games. The Owls’ weak strength of schedule and conference affiliation means they lack opportunities for signature wins. Unless the committee rewards their dominant advanced metrics, Florida Atlantic may top the list of mid-major snubs.

Missouri Tigers

Despite a respectable 20-10 overall record and 10-8 mark in the SEC, Missouri is far from safe. The Tigers are just 3-8 against Quad 1 competition and lack a true signature win. They’ve struggled mightily on the road against quality opponents as well. While Dennis Gates has Missouri trending upward in his first season, they look like a classic bubble team whose fate depends on how other fringe squads fare. The Tigers might be sweating it out until their name is or isn’t called on Sunday.

Penn State Nittany Lions

One of this season’s biggest bubble enigmas, Penn State has marquee victories over Purdue, Iowa and Michigan State…and dreadful losses to bottom feeders like Minnesota and Northwestern. At 19-12 overall and 9-11 in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions’ schizophrenic play makes them nearly impossible to assess. They own quality metrics, but a 4-12 road/neutral record shows their inability to travel. If the committee focuses on quality wins, Penn State has a chance. If they weigh bad losses heavily, they could be NIT-bound.

VCU Rams

Despite recent success under Mike Rhoades, this season’s VCU squad appears headed for the bubble after getting upset in the A10 Tournament. Overall, VCU sits at 21-9 but just 11-6 in a weak Atlantic 10 conference. Their non-conference performance was uninspiring as well, going just 6-6 with losses to Wagner and Jacksonville State. Unless the committee grants them credit for challenging themselves with six Quad 1 games, the Rams’ mediocre profile makes them vulnerable.

Utah Utes

An upstart campaign under first-year coach Craig Smith has Utah knocking on the bubble, but their resume still looks light. At 19-12 overall and 11-7 in Pac-12 play, the Utes own nice wins over Arizona and Oregon. But they are just 3-8 in Quad 1 games overall. Dismal early losses to Sam Houston State and Utah Valley State don’t help either. While their improvement is evident, Utah still appears a year away from the Big Dance unless they score a statement win or two in the Pac-12 Tournament.

While frantic bubble action will occur in conference tournaments across the nation, some of these fringe teams need more than solid performances – they likely require automatic bids to keep dancing. For these squads sitting squarely on the razor’s edge, seeing their bubbles burst on Selection Sunday is a stark possibility.

Which Bubble Teams Have the Toughest Roads to the Tournament?

For teams hovering on the NCAA Tournament bubble, championship week represents one final chance to state their case to the selection committee. However, for these fringe squads from non-power conferences, navigating their conference tournaments may be akin running a daunting gauntlet.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

After taking Conference USA by storm during the regular season, Western Kentucky suffered a shocking upset in their conference tournament at the hands of Louisiana Tech. Now at 19-13 overall, the Hilltoppers likely need to win the automatic bid to go dancing. But doing so will require navigating a loaded CUSA tournament field featuring the likes of North Texas, UAB and Middle Tennessee. With little margin for error, WKU faces a steep challenge getting back in the field.

VCU Rams

Despite 21 wins, VCU’s home upset loss to Saint Louis in the A10 Tournament quarterfinals leaves them in precarious position. To have a shot at an at-large bid, the Rams will likely need to battle their way through the A10 gauntlet again featuring tough potential matchups with Dayton, Saint Louis and Davidson. With no guarantees of navigating such a challenging slate unscathed, VCU’s hopes are dangling by a thread.

Furman Paladins

On the strength of a 13-3 SoCon regular season record, Furman looked safely headed for their first NCAA Tournament berth in over four decades. But a stunner of a loss to Samford in their conference tournament opener now necessitates a remarkable four-wins-in-four-days run just to make the Big Dance. Having to win games on consecutive days against Chattanooga, UNC Greensboro and likely Wofford represents an imposing challenge for the Paladins.

New Mexico Lobos

Despite a 23-7 overall mark, New Mexico finished just 11-6 in a mediocre Mountain West Conference. Their quarterfinal loss to Nevada in the league tournament means the Lobos likely need to cut down the nets to punch their ticket. Battling through a gauntlet featuring San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada again and potentially UNLV just to reach the final poses a mighty test for New Mexico’s NCAA Tournament hopes.

UAB Blazers

Winners of the CUSA regular season title, UAB was walloped by LA Tech in their tournament quarterfinals. Now at 22-7 overall but lacking marquee wins, the Blazers have little room for error. They’ll need to rip off wins against Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky and North Texas just to give themselves a shot at an at-large. It’s a formidable challenge for UAB’s veteran squad.

Toledo Rockets

Despite a 25-6 overall record and 16-3 MAC regular season title, Toledo finds themselves all the way down in the #5-seed in their conference tournament. Now they’ll need to reel off wins against Akron, Kent State, and likely Buffalo just to reach the MAC championship. It’s a treacherous path for Toledo just to remain in the at-large picture heading into Selection Sunday.

UNC Greensboro Spartans

Holding an impressive 10-3 record in Quad 1 and 2 games, UNCG looked poised for an at-large bid before falling to Furman in the SoCon semifinals. Now the Spartans likely need to win three games in three days, potentially against Furman again, Chattanooga and Wofford. It’s an unforgiving road, but UNCG has the talent to possibly navigate it.

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Despite winning 13 conference games, Oral Roberts squandered their chance to win the Summit League’s auto bid by falling to South Dakota State in the title game. Their path back to the championship features challenging games against North Dakota State, South Dakota and SDSU again. Oral Roberts has the firepower to get hot and make a run, but it won’t come easy.

Southern Illinois Salukis

Boasting a sizzling 15-1 Missouri Valley Conference record entering their tournament, Southern Illinois was shocked by Bradley in the semifinals. Now forced to win four games in four days just to claim the Valley’s auto bid, SIU faces a gargantuan test against the likes of Missouri State, Bradley, and potentially Loyola Chicago. The degree of difficulty is immense for the Salukis to navigate.

While they compiled impressive regular seasons, these fringe squads from outside power conferences now face perilous paths just to keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive. Running such harsh gauntlets of opponents in their own tournaments may end up bursting more bubbles instead. But if any of these teams can channel the magic and conquer their championship challenges, they’ll have undoubtedly earned their spot in the Big Dance.

As the college basketball regular season winds down, teams across the country are gearing up for championship week and the all-important conference tournaments. For many teams, these tournaments represent a last-ditch opportunity to secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. This makes conference championships prime territory for bid thieves – teams that sneak into the Big Dance by pulling off an unlikely tournament run.

Conference Tournaments Provide Last Chances for Bid Thieves

The drama is especially high for bubble teams sitting squarely on the fence between making the tournament field or not. As we head into the final days before Selection Sunday, there are always a handful of teams still clinging to hope for an at-large bid. For these squads, winning their conference tournament may be the only path to March Madness.

Take Virginia Tech for example. The Hokies likely need to win the ACC Tournament to keep their season alive. Sitting at 16-12 overall and 6-11 in conference play, Virginia Tech does not have a resume that warrants an at-large bid. However, if the Hokies can string together several wins in a row and snag the ACC’s automatic qualifier, they could steal a spot that otherwise would have gone to a bubble team.

The same scenario applies to teams like Utah State, VCU, and Belmont. All three entered championship week sitting on the bubble. While their regular season performances may not quite measure up for an at-large bid, going on a run through their conference tournaments could change the equation. These teams exemplify the bid thief archetype – unheralded squads flying under the radar that suddenly get hot at the right time.

The Ivy League Upset

One unique case is the Ivy League, which holds its conference tournament a week before the other major conferences. This gives the Ivy champ a chance to steal a bid before the final bubble takes shape.

This year, Yale is looking to claim that bid thief label. After finishing just 5-5 in conference play, the Bulldogs knocked off rival Harvard to secure the Ivy League’s automatic bid. Had they lost, Yale likely would not have made the NCAA Tournament. Now they have a week to wait and see how their inclusion impacts the bubble come Selection Sunday.

Mid-Major Stars Get National Spotlight

Conference tournaments also provide mid-major stars with a platform to shine in front of a national audience. Casual fans may not know much about players from smaller conferences during the regular season. But when schools like Murray State, South Dakota State, or Vermont make a March run, their top players get a chance to become household names.

Ja Morant emerged as a superstar during Murray State’s Ohio Valley Conference Championship in 2019. Carsen Edwards dropped 42 points in 2018 to will Purdue to a Big Ten Tournament title. Mid-major legends like Steph Curry and Shaka Smart built their reputations off incredible conference tournament performances.

So don’t overlook the importance of championship week when filling out your brackets. Bid thieves are born during these tournaments, and almost every season one or two unexpected teams play their way into March Madness. If you can correctly identify who will emerge as this year’s Cinderella stories, your bracket will already be off to a great start come tournament time.

Will Your March Madness Bracket Survive the Upsets?: The 2023 Bubble Teams to Watch For

It’s almost time for the madness of March to begin! As Championship Week concludes and Selection Sunday approaches, the NCAA Tournament picture is coming into focus. But for several teams squarely on the bubble, their March Madness fate remains uncertain.

This year’s bubble is especially soft, with almost 20 teams still fighting for a spot in the field of 68. The upcoming conference tournaments will provide many of these squads with one final chance to shore up their resumes. Others will be left scoreboard watching and hoping their body of work measures up against their fellow bubble competitors.

Here is a look at some of the key teams still battling to make it off the bubble and into March Madness:

Florida

The Gators always expect to make the Big Dance, but at 19-12 they have considerable work left to do. A win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals would go a long way towards punching their ticket. But if Florida falls early, it could find itself among the first teams left out on Selection Sunday.

Michigan

Sitting at 17-14 overall, the Wolverines need to make a run in the Big Ten Tournament to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. A matchup against Indiana in the quarterfinals gives Michigan a chance for a resume-building win. But a loss could spell doom for their postseason prospects.

Utah State

Independent Utah State faces added pressure with no conference tournament to fall back on. At 21-7 the Aggies have a solid record, but a weak schedule strength makes them vulnerable. A loss in their regular season finale at San Diego State could leave this bubble team firmly on the outside looking in.

VCU

Like Utah State, VCU finished its regular season without a conference. Their 21-7 record looks good on paper, but a poor NET ranking in the 60s indicates they were not challenged much during Atlantic 10 play. The Rams will need the committee to emphasize their gaudy win total over the question marks in their profile.

North Carolina

The Tar Heels have made every NCAA Tournament since 2010, but that historic run is in jeopardy. Sitting at 18-11 overall and 10-8 in the ACC, UNC may need to make a run to the ACC Tournament title game to keep their hopes alive. For a blueblood like Carolina, anything short of March Madness would be a major disappointment.

Several other perennial March Madness programs like Memphis, Xavier, and Saint Louis are firmly entrenched on the bubble as well. And inevitably, there will be a surprise team or two that plays its way into the at-large field during Championship Week.

The only sure bets at this point are that the bubble will see plenty of movement over the next seven days, and brackets everywhere will feel the impact once the tournament kicks off. When building your bracket, make sure to pay close attention to which bubble teams emerge with bids, as all it takes is one surprise inclusion or omission to bust picks come tournament time.

As we head into championship week, there are several potential bid thieves lurking in one-bid conferences that could shake up the bubble picture. These teams from smaller leagues are trying to play their way into March Madness by pulling off a conference tournament upset.

Potential Bid Thieves To Watch From One-Bid Leagues

One squad to keep an eye on is the Vermont Catamounts out of the America East Conference. Sitting at 20-10 overall, Vermont is looking to secure the America East’s automatic bid after falling short in the conference title game last season. Led by forward Finn Sullivan and his 15 points per game, the Catamounts have the talent to make a surprise March run.

In the Missouri Valley, all signs point to Loyola-Chicago claiming the league’s bid to dance. But don’t sleep on Northern Iowa. The Panthers beat Loyola earlier in the MVC Tournament and at 17-15 overall, need that automatic qualifier to keep their season going. Northern Iowa is no stranger to March upsets, having stunned Kansas and North Carolina in recent NCAA Tournaments.

Out west, New Mexico State rolled through the WAC regular season but fell to Cal Baptist in the conference semifinals. If Cal Baptist can win the automatic bid, it would be their first ever trip to the Big Dance. With a talented backcourt led by Ty Rowell, they have the firepower to cut down the nets on Tournament Tuesday.

In the MAC, Toledo emerged as the favorite after sharing the regular season title with Akron. But the Rockets were upset by Kent State in the MAC quarterfinals. The Golden Flashes now find themselves two wins away from an improbable March Madness berth. Kent State has played giant killer in the Dance before, memorably reaching the Elite Eight in 2002.

And don’t forget about the Southern Conference title game between Chattanooga and Furman. While Chattanooga is the favorite, Furman has won five straight games by double digits entering the championship. Led by super senior Mike Bothwell, the Paladins are peaking at the perfect time.

These are just a few of the potential bid thieves that could send someone else’s bubble bursting come Selection Sunday. Make sure to tune into all the conference championship games this weekend. You never know which under-the-radar team might be cutting down the nets and punching their ticket to March Madness over the next few days!

Will Your March Madness Bracket Survive the Upsets?: The 2023 Bubble Teams to Watch For

Here is a look at some of the key teams still battling to make it off the bubble and into March Madness:

Florida

Michigan

Utah State

VCU

North Carolina

The First Four play-in games mark the official start of March Madness every year. While they don’t get as much hype as the main 64-team bracket, the First Four matchups are crucial for bubble teams barely sneaking into the field. And sometimes, the winner of a play-in game can make unexpected magic happen in March.

Don’t Forget About the Play-In Game Winner’s Magic

Play-in game winners have long defied the odds. In 2011, VCU went from one of the last at-large teams into the First Four, to making a stunning run all the way to the Final Four as an 11 seed. Two years later, La Salle did the same. After winning a play-in game, the Explorers went on a Sweet 16 run behind the heroics of Ramon Galloway and Tyreek Duren.

Most recently, UCLA used the momentum from the First Four to fuel a 2021 Final Four appearance after looking bound for the NIT in early March. The Bruins’ First Four to Final Four path became an inspiration for bubble teams everywhere.

So when filling out your bracket this year, make sure not to underestimate whoever emerges from the play-in games. Getting those extra minutes on the court and first tournament win under their belts can work wonders for teams’ confidence.

This season, pay special attention to the winner between Wyoming and Indiana. The Cowboys have been undervalued all year, while the Hoosiers are a dangerous play-in team from a power conference. Both squads have the makeup of a potential surprise Sweet 16 club.

The play-in game effect even translates to the 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 matchups. Teams like Davidson, USC, and North Carolina could use the extra game to kickstart a run. Meanwhile, 7 and 8 seeds like San Francisco and Seton Hall may suffer from too much time off.

So don’t make the mistake of overlooking the First Four teams when making your picks. Play-in winners have repeatedly shown the ability to not only win a game, but make serious noise in March. You never know which underdog could become this year’s Cinderella story.

Will Your March Madness Bracket Survive the Upsets?: The 2023 Bubble Teams to Watch For

Here is a look at some of the key teams still battling to make it off the bubble and into March Madness: