The University of Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball team has enjoyed great success over the years, establishing themselves as a perennial powerhouse in the Big Ten Conference and making regular appearances in the NCAA Tournament. Their passionate fanbase fills the raucous Kohl Center in Madison, hoping this could be the year their Badgers cut down the nets as national champions. Will this be the season it finally happens? Let’s dive into 15 inside points on Wisconsin basketball to find out if the Badgers can surge to the Sweet 16.
Overview of the Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball program and its success
The Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball program dates back to 1896, but they cemented themselves as a national presence under former coach Bo Ryan. During Ryan’s successful 14-year tenure from 2001-2015, the Badgers made the NCAA tournament every season, twice advancing to the Final Four in 2014 and 2015. Wisconsin has continued that standard of excellence under current coach Greg Gard, winning a share of the Big Ten regular season title in 2020 and consistently earning single digit seeds in March Madness.
The Badgers have built their identity on toughness, defense, and controlling tempo. They typically play at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, preferring a methodical, low-scoring grind-it-out style. This has often allowed them to knock off more highly-touted opponents in tournament play. Offensively, they space the floor and emphasize ball movement, shooting plenty of 3-pointers. On defense, they play stringent man-to-man and are adept at defending the 3 and cleaning the defensive glass.
Wisconsin fans live and breathe Badgers basketball. Home games at the raucous Kohl Center average over 17,000 fans, and the “Grateful Red” student section is one of the most passionate in the country. The program has elevated itself to an elite level, but the fervent fanbase in Madison won’t be satisfied until they can celebrate a national championship.
Key players to watch on this year’s Badgers squad and their stats
This year’s Badgers team is led by senior forward Tyler Wahl, who averaged 12.2 points and 5.9 rebounds last season. His versatility on both ends makes him indispensable. Junior point guard Chucky Hepburn runs the show, providing tenacious on-ball defense while averaging nearly 8 points and 2 assists per game last year. Seven-foot center Steven Crowl anchors the middle, bringing interior defense and floor spacing with his outside shooting touch.
Other key contributors include sophomore wing Jonathan Davis, an athletic scorer who put up over 18 points per game as a freshman, and senior guard Brad Davison, a scrappy veteran who spaces the floor with over 40% 3-point shooting for his career. The Badgers have a balanced attack with experience and youth.
Wisconsin’s regular season performance and seeding in the NCAA March Madness tournament
The Badgers finished the regular season with an overall record of 24-7, including a 15-5 mark in Big Ten play. Their strong regular season resume earned them a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament Midwest region. This sets up Wisconsin to potentially play close to home in Milwaukee and Chicago if they can navigate their way through the early rounds.
A double-bye in the Big Ten tournament allowed the Badgers to rest up before a tough quarterfinal matchup with Michigan State, who they defeated to advance to the Big Ten semifinals before falling to eventual champion Iowa. Nonetheless, Wisconsin appeared poised for another deep March run heading into the Big Dance.
The Badgers’ first round matchup and how their opponent’s playing style matches up
In the first round, #3 Wisconsin drew an intriguing matchup against #14 Colgate. While on paper this looks like a mismatch, the upstart 14-seed Patriot League champs presented some challenges for the Badgers. Colgate plays at a methodical pace and has a versatile big man in 6’10” forward Keegan Records who can drag Wisconsin’s forwards away from the basket with outside shooting.
However, the Badgers Excel at dictating tempo, and their defense should be able to force Colgate into low percentage shots. While an upset is possible if Colgate has a hot shooting night from deep, Wisconsin’s balance and postseason experience made them clear favorites to move on.
Wisconsin’s historical tournament results – past Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final Four runs
Wisconsin has a long history of March success under Bo Ryan and Greg Gard’s leadership. They’ve advanced to the Sweet 16 in 5 of the past 10 tournaments, including back-to-back Final Four runs in 2014 and 2015. In 2014 as a 2-seed, Wisconsin made a surprise run to the Final Four before falling to Kentucky in the semifinals. The next year, they returned as a 1-seed and battled past undefeated Kentucky in an instant classic national semifinal before losing to Duke in the championship game.
The Badgers also reached the Sweet 16 as a 7-seed in 2008, led by All-American forward Michael Flowers. And in 2017 as an 8-seed, they emerged from a loaded East region to reach the Sweet 16 thanks to red-hot shooting from Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes. So while this year’s team is lower-seeded than those past squads, they certainly have the pedigree for another deep tourney run.
How this year’s Badgers stack up talent-wise to past Wisconsin teams
This Badgers squad may lack the star power of some past editions that featured National Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky or consensus All-Americans like Flowers, Koenig, and Hayes. But their balanced attack and mix of youth and experience closely resembles those 2014 and 2015 Final Four teams. Those squads won through collective effort and postseason toughness.
Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl aren’t as individually talented as Kaminsky and senior center Ethan Happ, who led the 2017 squad. But as a duo, they form a formidable frontcourt. And in Chucky Hepburn and Jonathan Davis, the Badgers have dangerous perimeter scorers with room to grow. So while they may be less heralded than previous teams, the 2022-23 Badgers have the pieces to make their own March magic.
Analysis of the Badgers’ strengths – defense, rebounding, experience
Wisconsin’s pack-line defense, fundamental man-to-man principles, and ability to slow the pace year after year make offense a chore for opponents. They finished 15th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com advanced metrics. Fleeting possessions and contested outside shots are what await teams facing the Badgers’ staunch defense.
Second-chance opportunities will also be hard to come by against Wisconsin’s superior rebounding. Anchored by Wahl and Crowl, the Badgers pulled down over 35 rebounds per game while allowing under 30 – good for 5th nationally in rebound margin. And their senior backcourt of Davison and Hepburn have played in their share of pressure-packed Big Ten battles.
Examination of potential weaknesses or concerns – shooting, depth, foul trouble
While Wisconsin’s defense is stout as ever, their offense and outside shooting remain works in progress. At just 33.6% from 3-point range, the Badgers ranked 244th nationally in team 3-point percentage. Relying on jump shots rather than getting to the foul line could lead to cold shooting nights in March.
Wisconsin also lacks frontcourt depth behind Wahl and Crowl. Foul trouble for either big man could compromise the Badgers’ interior defense against talented opponents. And at guard, Wisconsin needs role players like Jahcobi Neath to complement Hepburn and Davison with Glue Guy contributions on both ends.
Wisconsin’s path to the Sweet 16 – possible 2nd round and Sweet 16 matchups
If the Badgers advance past 14-seed Colgate as expected in the first round, they would get the winner of 6-seed LSU and 11-seed Iowa State in the second round. Either matchup poses challenges, as LSU pairs athleticism and speed with 3-point shooting while Iowa State runs intricate halfcourt sets and has experience in close games. But Wisconsin should still have the edge.
In the Sweet 16, 2-seed Kentucky likely awaits the Badgers. The young but supremely talented Wildcats pose matchup problems all over the floor. But Wisconsin’s methodical style could frustrate Kentucky’s young stars. It would be a defensive slugfest either way, and Wisconsin’s experience and composure would give them a fighting chance to knock off the Wildcats.
How the Badgers match up with those potential opponents in terms of talent
Against both LSU and Iowa State, Wisconsin’s veterans like Davison and Wahl likely hold the advantage against those teams’ youth and inexperience. The Badgers would look to control pace and force those opponents into a grind.
Against Kentucky, the talent gap favors the Wildcats. Oscar Tshiebwe may be the most dominant rebounder in the country, and guards TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler pace an explosive attack. But Wisconsin has surprised Kentucky before, using smarts and unyielding defense to take down more gifted Wildcats teams in 2014 and 2015. So they could hang around in another rock fight matchup.
Keys to the Badgers making a run – slowing tempo, controlling the glass
For Wisconsin to orchestrate another March run, they’ll need to impose their preferred plodding tempo and win the rebounding battle on both ends. If they can successfully drain the shot clock and limit opponents to one shot per possession, they can mitigate disadvantages in talent or athleticism.
The Badgers must also avoid the prolonged scoring droughts that sometimes plague their offense. Rock fights are Wisconsin’s specialty, but balanced scoring from Davis, Wahl, and others would go a long way towards surviving and advancing.
The impact of playing close to home in the Midwest region
As a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament’s Midwest region, Wisconsin will play its opening weekend games in Milwaukee. Just 80 miles from Madison, Badgers fans are sure to flock to Fiserv Forum and give Wisconsin a hearty home-crowd advantage.
If they reach the Sweet 16, it would be just a short trip down I-94 to the United Center in Chicago. Wisconsin often plays well in front of its raucous fans, so the proximity to home could propel them through close early round matchups. The first weekend especially will feel like de facto home games.
Prediction on whether the Badgers will make the Sweet 16 and Final Four
Wisconsin’s seasoned, defense-oriented approach is built for tournament success. The path won’t be easy, but I predict the Badgers will wear down Colgate in the first round before outfumbling LSU or Iowa State to reach the Sweet 16. There, they will slow the pace and muck up the game enough to upset Kentucky in a classic Wisconsin March moment.
In the Elite Eight, the Badgers’ run likely ends at the hands of tournament favorite Houston. The Cougars present too many offensive problems for Wisconsin to overcome. But returning to the Elite Eight after a one-year absence would replenish expectations in Madison and set the stage for future March runs. So look for Wisconsin to rev up a raucous Midwest crowd early on before falling just short of the Final Four.