Which teams are likely to secure automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Lacrosse Tournament. How does the selection process work for at-large bids. What factors influence a team’s chances of making the tournament field.
Automatic Qualifiers: Conference Champions Securing Their Spots
As the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Lacrosse Selection Sunday approaches, several teams have already locked in their tournament berths by winning their respective conference championships. These automatic qualifiers (AQs) include:
- America East: Bryant
- Big East: Georgetown
- Big Ten: Michigan
- CAA: Delaware
- MAAC: Marist
- A-10: Richmond
Additionally, predictions for the remaining conferences are:
- ASUN: Utah
- Ivy League: Yale
- Patriot League: Loyola
At-Large Bid Contenders: Analyzing Team Resumes
With automatic qualifiers securing their spots, the remaining at-large bids are highly contested. The selection committee will carefully evaluate team resumes, considering factors such as RPI, quality wins, and strength of schedule. Here’s a breakdown of some top contenders:
Virginia Cavaliers (11-3, RPI: 2)
Virginia boasts an impressive resume with two top-5 wins against Notre Dame and a victory over Johns Hopkins. Their lack of losses outside the top 20 strengthens their case for a high seed.
Duke Blue Devils (12-2, RPI: 1)
Duke’s resume features two top-5 wins against Virginia and victories over Penn, North Carolina, and Denver. Their only blemish is a loss to non-top-20 Jacksonville.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2, RPI: 3)
Notre Dame’s strong resume includes a top-5 win over Duke and victories against Maryland, Georgetown, and North Carolina. They have no losses outside the top 20.
Bubble Teams: The Battle for the Final Spots
As Selection Sunday approaches, several teams find themselves on the bubble, fighting for the last few tournament spots. These teams include:
- Army
- Villanova
- Penn
- Denver
Each of these teams has strengths and weaknesses in their resumes, making the selection committee’s decision challenging.
Selection Criteria: Understanding the Committee’s Decision-Making Process
The NCAA selection committee considers various factors when determining at-large bids and seeding for the tournament. Key criteria include:
- RPI (Ratings Percentage Index)
- Strength of schedule
- Quality wins (victories over top-20 ranked teams)
- Head-to-head results
- Common opponents
- Significant wins and losses
Understanding these criteria helps in predicting which teams are likely to receive at-large bids and how they might be seeded in the tournament.
Tournament Format: Breaking Down the Bracket Structure
The NCAA Division 1 Men’s Lacrosse Tournament typically features a 16-team bracket. The tournament structure includes:
- First Round: 8 games
- Quarterfinals: 4 games
- Semifinals: 2 games
- Championship: 1 game
The top 8 seeds receive home-field advantage in the first round, hosting lower-seeded teams or play-in game winners.
Projected Tournament Field: Predicting the Seedings and Matchups
Based on the current landscape and team performances, here’s a projected tournament field with seedings and potential first-round matchups:
- Duke vs. Play-In Game Winner (Marist vs. Bryant)
- Virginia vs. Richmond
- Notre Dame vs. Utah
- Johns Hopkins vs. Delaware
- Penn State vs. Loyola
- Cornell vs. Michigan
- Maryland vs. Georgetown
- Yale vs. Army
This projection considers the likely automatic qualifiers and the strongest at-large bid contenders based on their resumes and performances throughout the season.
Impact of Conference Tournaments: Last-Minute Changes to the Landscape
Conference tournaments can significantly impact the final tournament field and seedings. Late upsets or strong performances can shuffle the rankings and alter the selection committee’s decisions. For example, Michigan’s unexpected Big Ten Championship victory has likely secured their spot in the tournament, potentially at the expense of an Ivy League at-large bid.
How do conference tournament results affect at-large bids?
Conference tournament outcomes can create “bid stealers” – teams that wouldn’t otherwise make the tournament but secure an automatic qualifier by winning their conference tournament. This reduces the number of available at-large bids, intensifying the competition among bubble teams.
Historical Context: Comparing This Year’s Selection Process to Previous Seasons
While every season brings its own unique challenges and storylines, it’s valuable to compare this year’s selection process to recent history. The 2022 season, for instance, saw significant drama and controversy surrounding team selections and seedings.
What major differences exist between this year’s selection process and last year’s?
This year appears to have less overall drama compared to 2022, but there are still contentious battles for the final at-large spots. The impact of COVID-19 on schedules and team performances has diminished, allowing for a more traditional evaluation process.
As we await the official announcement on Selection Sunday, the lacrosse community remains abuzz with anticipation and speculation. The tournament field will undoubtedly spark debates and discussions, as is tradition in the highly competitive world of NCAA Division 1 Men’s Lacrosse.
Selection Sunday Predictions: NCAA Division 1 Lacrosse
We are coming down to the wire here with Selection Sunday for NCAA Men’s Division 1 Lacrosse only a few hours away. Some teams will control their tournament fate with how they finish their conference tournaments, while others will wait and see if the lacrosse gods and the selection committee will favor them.
It’s been an incredible season up to this point, filled with upsets and bounce-backs from programs nationwide. While we don’t predict as much drama this season as compared to 2022, there is bound to be a team that stays home with an argument to be included in the field. Based on what we’ve seen play out with the Big Ten, it looks like the Ivy League will be very unhappy with Michigan’s massive win in the Big Ten Championship.
𝙱𝙸𝙶 𝚃𝙴𝙽 𝚃𝙾𝚄𝚁𝙽𝙰𝙼𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝙲𝙷𝙰𝙼𝙿𝙸𝙾𝙽𝚂
No. 15 Michigan 14, No. 7 Maryland 5
✅NCAA Tournament Bound
✅ Big Ten Tournament Champions#GoBlue〽️ pic. twitter.com/Xrv6quUeOj— Michigan Men’s Lacrosse (@UMichLacrosse) May 6, 2023
First lets take a look at the automatic qualifiers and our predictions.
Automatic Qualifiers
- America East: Bryant
- ASUN: Utah*
- A-10: Richmond
- Big East: Georgetown
- Big Ten: Michigan
- CAA: Delaware
- Ivy: Yale*
- MAAC: Marist
- Patriot: Loyola*
(*=prediction)
With those AQ’s given out, let’s look at the resumes of the teams left for at-large bids. Selection Sunday should contain many surprises that are sure to upset the lacrosse community.
Resumes
1. Virginia (11-3)
RPI: 2
Top 5 Wins: Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Johns Hopkins
Top 6-10 Wins: None
Top 11-20 Wins: North Carolina
Non Top-20 Losses: None
2. Duke (12-2)
RPI: 1
Top 5 Wins: Virginia, Virginia
Top 6-20 Wins: Penn
Top 11-20 Wins: North Carolina, Denver
Non Top-20 Losses: Jacksonville
3. Notre Dame (9-2)
RPI: 3
Top 5 Wins: Duke
Top 6-10 Wins: Maryland, Georgetown
Top 11-20 Wins: North Carolina
Non Top-20 Losses: None
4. Penn State (9-3)
RPI: 5
Top 5 Wins: Johns Hopkins
Top 6-10 Wins: Cornell, Yale, Penn
Top 11-20 Wins: Rutgers
Non Top-20 Losses: Marquette
6. Maryland (9-4)
RPI: 6
Top 5 Wins: Virginia, Penn State
Top 6-10 Wins: None
Top 11-20 Wins: Princeton, Rutgers, Rutgers
Non Top-20 Losses: Loyola, Michigan
8. Yale (8-4)
RPI: 9
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 6-10 Wins: None
Top 11-20 Wins: Denver, Villanova, Boston U.
Non Top-20 Losses: None
9. Penn (7-5)
RPI: 10
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 6-10 Wins: Georgetown, Yale
Top 11-20 Wins: Princeton
Non Top-20 Losses: Brown
10. Denver (10-5)
RPI: 11
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 6-10 Wins: None
Top 11-20 Wins: North Carolina, Utah, Villanova
Non Top-20 Losses: Air Force
12. Villanova (10-4)
RPI: 12
Top 5 Wins: Penn State
Top 6-10 Wins: Penn
Top 11-20 Wins: None
Non Top-20 Losses: Brown
13. North Carolina (7-6)
RPI: 14
Top 5 Wins: Johns Hopkins
Top 6-10 Wins: None
Top 11-20 Wins: None
Non Top-20 Losses: Syracuse, Ohio State
14. Syracuse (8-7)
RPI: 21
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 6-10 Wins: None
Top 11-20 Wins: North Carolina, Princeton, Vermont
Non Top-20 Losses: None
15. Boston U (10-3)
RPI: 13
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 6-10 Wins: None
Top 11-20 Wins: Army, Bryant
Non Top-20 Losses: Navy
16. Rutgers (8-6)
RPI: 15
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 6-10 Wins: None
Top 11-20 Wins: Utah, Princeton
Non Top-20 Losses: Ohio State
17. Princeton (6-6)
RPI: 17
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 6-10 Wins: Yale
Top 11-20 Wins: None
Non Top-20 Losses: Syracuse
Conclusion
At Large Bids: 8
Locks: Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Penn State, Maryland
Probably In: Cornell, Johns Hopkins
Last Teams Fighting It Out for One Spot: Army, Villanova, Penn, Denver
Last Team Out: Villanova
Last Team In: Army
NCAA Tournament Field with Seeds
- Duke
- Virginia
- Notre Dame
- Johns Hopkins
- Penn State
- Cornell
- Maryland
- Yale
First Round Matchups
- Duke vs. Play-In Game (Marist vs. Bryant Winner)
- Virginia vs. Richmond
- Notre Dame vs. Utah
- Johns Hopkins vs. Delaware
- Penn State vs. Loyola
- Cornell vs. Michigan
- Maryland vs. Georgetown
- Yale vs. Army
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